Greece xG 2026

Greece xG Questions

Are Greece overperforming their xG?

Yes, Greece have taken 21 points over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 7.72 more than the 13.28 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.

What is Greece's xG per game?

Greece create 1.41 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 11.24 in all, and have scored 14 goals from those chances, 2.76 more than that xG would expect.

What is Greece's xGA per game?

Greece allow 0.90 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 7.22 in all, and have conceded 5 goals from those chances, 2.22 fewer than that xGA would expect.

Who has the most xG for Greece?

Vangelis Pavlidis has the most expected goals (xG) for Greece over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 1.70 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Christos Tzolis is next with 1.49 xG.

Greece expected goals 2026: last 8

Games: 8
Expected goals (xG): 11.24
Goals scored: 14
Goals minus xG: +2.76
Expected goals against (xGA): 7.22
Goals conceded: 5
xGA minus goals conceded: +2.22
Expected points (xPts): 13.28
Points: 21
Points minus xPts: +7.72
Verdict: Riding their luck

Are Greece overperforming their expected goals?

Greece have taken 7.7 points more than their chances warranted over 8 games: +2.8 goals against their xG, and +2.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.

Next opponent: Netherlands expected goals

Games: 8
Netherlands xG per game: 2.22
Netherlands xGA per game: 1.23
Points minus xPts: -1.81
Verdict: A bit unlucky

Greece results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
Last 8	8	11.24	14	+2.76	7.22	5	+2.22	13.28	21	+7.72
Last 5	5	8.04	7	-1.04	5.25	4	+1.25	8.31	12	+3.69
Home	3	4.60	5	+0.40	2.27	3	-0.73	5.63	6	+0.37
Away	5	6.64	9	+2.36	4.95	2	+2.95	7.65	15	+7.35

Greece expected goals match by match, last 8

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
27 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Germany (A)	0-1	0.51	1.39	0.69	3	L
24 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Serbia (A)	1-2	3.07	1.33	2.30	3	W
17 Nov	UEFA Nations League	Finland (A)	0-2	1.38	0.61	1.95	3	W
14 Nov	UEFA Nations League	England (H)	0-3	0.75	1.33	0.92	0	L
13 Oct	UEFA Nations League	Republic of Ireland (H)	2-0	2.33	0.59	2.45	3	W
10 Oct	UEFA Nations League	England (A)	1-2	0.93	0.78	1.46	3	W
10 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Republic of Ireland (A)	0-2	0.75	0.84	1.25	3	D
7 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Finland (H)	3-0	1.52	0.35	2.26	3	W

Greece players: goals against expected goals, last 8

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Fotis Ioannidis	attacker	5	268	0.59	3	+2.41	0.20
Christos Tzolis	attacker	7	606	1.49	3	+1.51	0.22
Petros Mantalos	midfielder	5	188	0.10	1	+0.90	0.05
Anastasios Bakasetas	midfielder	6	466	1.12	2	+0.88	0.22
Dimitrios Kourbelis	midfielder	5	367	0.24	1	+0.76	0.06
Vangelis Pavlidis	attacker	8	475	1.70	2	+0.30	0.32
Georgios Masouras	attacker	5	285	0.72	0	-0.72	0.23
Konstantinos Mavropanos	defender	8	720	0.76	0	-0.76	0.09

UEFA Nations League 2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Portugal	2	3.2	3	4.2	1	2.4	6	+3.6
2	Greece	2	3.6	3	2.7	1	3	6	+3
3	Sweden	2	2.6	5	2.2	2	3	6	+3
4	France	2	2.6	2	1.9	0	3.2	6	+2.8
5	Ukraine	2	1.4	1	3.1	0	1.4	4	+2.6
6	Spain	2	3.1	7	2.1	3	3.5	6	+2.5
7	Northern Ireland	2	2	1	2.7	0	2.2	4	+1.8
8	Austria	2	4.6	6	1.7	2	4.3	6	+1.7
9	Montenegro	2	4.6	5	1.9	3	4.3	6	+1.7
10	Albania	2	4	5	1.5	0	4.5	6	+1.5
11	Slovakia	2	3.4	4	0.7	1	4.7	6	+1.3
12	Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	2.3	4	2	2	2.8	4	+1.2
13	Luxembourg	2	1.7	2	3.1	4	1.8	3	+1.2
14	Slovenia	2	2.2	2	2	0	2.9	4	+1.1
15	Republic of Ireland	2	1.3	3	2.9	1	2	3	+1
16	Switzerland	2	3.8	6	0.2	0	5.2	6	+0.8
17	Belgium	2	2.9	2	3.5	1	2.3	3	+0.7
18	Malta	1	3.3	2	0.9	1	2.6	3	+0.4
19	Croatia	2	2.6	3	2.4	5	2.8	3	+0.2
20	Italy	2	3.8	4	3.8	3	2.8	3	+0.2
21	Estonia	2	1.7	1	2.9	1	1.8	2	+0.2
22	Gibraltar	1	0.3	0	0.8	0	0.8	1	+0.2
23	Lithuania	2	2.9	3	1.4	1	3.9	4	+0.1
24	Armenia	2	2	4	1.9	3	2.9	3	+0.1
25	Kazakhstan	2	0.8	2	2.9	3	1.1	1	-0.1
26	Iceland	2	3.7	4	1.6	1	4.2	4	-0.2
27	Denmark	2	3.2	4	2.5	3	3.2	3	-0.2
28	Liechtenstein	1	0.1	0	1.6	2	0.3	0	-0.3
29	Azerbaijan	1	1.3	1	1.3	1	1.4	1	-0.4
30	England	2	3.2	4	2.2	3	3.5	3	-0.5
31	Latvia	2	1.4	0	3.1	2	1.5	1	-0.5
32	Belarus	2	1.3	0	3.1	2	1.5	1	-0.5
33	Netherlands	2	6.6	3	2.8	2	4.6	4	-0.6
34	San Marino	2	0.7	0	5.6	10	0.6	0	-0.6
35	Finland	2	4.7	7	0.5	0	4.7	4	-0.7
36	North Macedonia	2	0.6	0	4	5	0.7	0	-0.7
37	Kosovo	2	3.8	2	1.9	3	3.9	3	-0.9
38	Faroe Islands	2	2.5	2	2.4	2	2.9	2	-0.9
39	Serbia	2	2.5	2	6.7	4	0.9	0	-0.9
40	Norway	2	4.4	4	2.2	4	4	3	-1
41	Israel	2	0.8	1	4	6	1	0	-1
42	Andorra	2	1.7	1	3.6	2	2.1	1	-1.1
43	Moldova	2	2.3	1	3	3	2.3	1	-1.3
44	Czech Republic	2	1.5	1	3.7	4	1.3	0	-1.3
45	Scotland	2	1.6	0	2.1	3	2.4	1	-1.4
46	Cyprus	2	3	1	4.2	2	2.4	1	-1.4
47	Wales	2	2.3	0	4.2	3	1.6	0	-1.6
48	Germany	2	3.1	1	3.4	2	2.8	1	-1.8
49	Poland	2	2.2	1	2	3	3	1	-2
50	Romania	2	2	3	2.9	6	2.1	0	-2.1
51	Bulgaria	2	2.4	1	1.8	2	3.2	1	-2.2
52	Hungary	2	3.2	0	2.1	1	3.5	1	-2.5
53	Georgia	2	2.7	0	1.4	1	3.7	1	-2.7
54	Turkey	2	2.8	1	2.8	5	2.7	0	-2.7

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