Poland xG 2026

Poland xG Questions

Are Poland overperforming their xG?

No, Poland have taken 5 points over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 4.03 fewer than the 9.03 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.

What is Poland's xG per game?

Poland create 1.26 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 10.10 in all, and have scored 10 goals from those chances, 0.10 fewer than that xG would expect.

What is Poland's xGA per game?

Poland allow 1.85 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 14.80 in all, and have conceded 19 goals from those chances, 4.20 more than that xGA would expect.

Who has the most xG for Poland?

Sebastian Szymanski has the most expected goals (xG) for Poland over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 1.82 xG in 7 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Robert Lewandowski is next with 1.54 xG.

Poland expected goals 2026: last 8

Games: 8
Expected goals (xG): 10.10
Goals scored: 10
Goals minus xG: -0.10
Expected goals against (xGA): 14.80
Goals conceded: 19
xGA minus goals conceded: -4.20
Expected points (xPts): 9.03
Points: 5
Points minus xPts: -4.03
Verdict: Due an upturn

Are Poland overperforming their expected goals?

Poland have taken 4.0 points fewer than their chances warranted over 8 games: -0.1 goals against their xG, and -4.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

Next opponent: Romania expected goals

Games: 8
Romania xG per game: 1.59
Romania xGA per game: 1.10
Points minus xPts: +4.78
Verdict: Riding their luck

Poland results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
Last 8	8	10.10	10	-0.10	14.80	19	-4.20	9.03	5	-4.03
Last 5	5	6.31	6	-0.31	8.22	13	-4.78	6.18	2	-4.18
Home	4	4.65	5	+0.35	6.27	8	-1.73	4.98	2	-2.98
Away	4	5.45	5	-0.45	8.53	11	-2.47	4.05	3	-1.05

Poland expected goals match by match, last 8

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
28 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Sweden (A)	3-1	1.25	1.67	1.10	0	L
25 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Bosnia (H)	0-0	0.96	0.36	1.85	1	W
18 Nov	UEFA Nations League	Scotland (H)	1-2	1.71	1.66	1.41	0	W
15 Nov	UEFA Nations League	Portugal (A)	5-1	1.23	3.45	0.40	0	L
15 Oct	UEFA Nations League	Croatia (H)	3-3	1.16	1.08	1.42	1	W
12 Oct	UEFA Nations League	Portugal (H)	1-3	0.82	3.17	0.30	0	L
8 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Croatia (A)	1-0	1.06	2.20	0.72	0	L
5 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Scotland (A)	2-3	1.91	1.21	1.83	3	W

Poland players: goals against expected goals, last 8

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Piotr Zieliński	midfielder	8	654	0.67	2	+1.33	0.09
Sebastian Szymanski	midfielder	7	598	1.82	3	+1.18	0.27
Kamil Piatkowski	defender	3	232	0.12	1	+0.88	0.05
Nicola Zalewski	midfielder	8	682	1.33	2	+0.67	0.18
Robert Lewandowski	attacker	6	369	1.54	1	-0.54	0.38
Jakub Kamiński	attacker	5	289	0.58	0	-0.58	0.18
Karol Świderski	attacker	6	272	0.79	0	-0.79	0.26
Adam Buksa	attacker	3	126	0.94	0	-0.94	0.67

UEFA Nations League 2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Portugal	2	3.2	3	4.2	1	2.4	6	+3.6
2	Greece	2	3.6	3	2.7	1	3	6	+3
3	Sweden	2	2.6	5	2.2	2	3	6	+3
4	France	2	2.6	2	1.9	0	3.2	6	+2.8
5	Ukraine	2	1.4	1	3.1	0	1.4	4	+2.6
6	Spain	2	3.1	7	2.1	3	3.5	6	+2.5
7	Northern Ireland	2	2	1	2.7	0	2.2	4	+1.8
8	Austria	2	4.6	6	1.7	2	4.3	6	+1.7
9	Montenegro	2	4.6	5	1.9	3	4.3	6	+1.7
10	Albania	2	4	5	1.5	0	4.5	6	+1.5
11	Slovakia	2	3.4	4	0.7	1	4.7	6	+1.3
12	Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	2.3	4	2	2	2.8	4	+1.2
13	Luxembourg	2	1.7	2	3.1	4	1.8	3	+1.2
14	Slovenia	2	2.2	2	2	0	2.9	4	+1.1
15	Republic of Ireland	2	1.3	3	2.9	1	2	3	+1
16	Switzerland	2	3.8	6	0.2	0	5.2	6	+0.8
17	Belgium	2	2.9	2	3.5	1	2.3	3	+0.7
18	Malta	1	3.3	2	0.9	1	2.6	3	+0.4
19	Croatia	2	2.6	3	2.4	5	2.8	3	+0.2
20	Italy	2	3.8	4	3.8	3	2.8	3	+0.2
21	Estonia	2	1.7	1	2.9	1	1.8	2	+0.2
22	Gibraltar	1	0.3	0	0.8	0	0.8	1	+0.2
23	Lithuania	2	2.9	3	1.4	1	3.9	4	+0.1
24	Armenia	2	2	4	1.9	3	2.9	3	+0.1
25	Kazakhstan	2	0.8	2	2.9	3	1.1	1	-0.1
26	Iceland	2	3.7	4	1.6	1	4.2	4	-0.2
27	Denmark	2	3.2	4	2.5	3	3.2	3	-0.2
28	Liechtenstein	1	0.1	0	1.6	2	0.3	0	-0.3
29	Azerbaijan	1	1.3	1	1.3	1	1.4	1	-0.4
30	England	2	3.2	4	2.2	3	3.5	3	-0.5
31	Latvia	2	1.4	0	3.1	2	1.5	1	-0.5
32	Belarus	2	1.3	0	3.1	2	1.5	1	-0.5
33	Netherlands	2	6.6	3	2.8	2	4.6	4	-0.6
34	San Marino	2	0.7	0	5.6	10	0.6	0	-0.6
35	Finland	2	4.7	7	0.5	0	4.7	4	-0.7
36	North Macedonia	2	0.6	0	4	5	0.7	0	-0.7
37	Kosovo	2	3.8	2	1.9	3	3.9	3	-0.9
38	Faroe Islands	2	2.5	2	2.4	2	2.9	2	-0.9
39	Serbia	2	2.5	2	6.7	4	0.9	0	-0.9
40	Norway	2	4.4	4	2.2	4	4	3	-1
41	Israel	2	0.8	1	4	6	1	0	-1
42	Andorra	2	1.7	1	3.6	2	2.1	1	-1.1
43	Moldova	2	2.3	1	3	3	2.3	1	-1.3
44	Czech Republic	2	1.5	1	3.7	4	1.3	0	-1.3
45	Scotland	2	1.6	0	2.1	3	2.4	1	-1.4
46	Cyprus	2	3	1	4.2	2	2.4	1	-1.4
47	Wales	2	2.3	0	4.2	3	1.6	0	-1.6
48	Germany	2	3.1	1	3.4	2	2.8	1	-1.8
49	Poland	2	2.2	1	2	3	3	1	-2
50	Romania	2	2	3	2.9	6	2.1	0	-2.1
51	Bulgaria	2	2.4	1	1.8	2	3.2	1	-2.2
52	Hungary	2	3.2	0	2.1	1	3.5	1	-2.5
53	Georgia	2	2.7	0	1.4	1	3.7	1	-2.7
54	Turkey	2	2.8	1	2.8	5	2.7	0	-2.7

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