Yes, Arsenal have taken 47 points over their last 20 Premier League games, 9.14 more than the 37.86 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Arsenal create 1.72 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 34.31 in all, and have scored 35 goals from those chances, 0.69 more than that xG would expect.
Arsenal allow 0.91 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 18.16 in all, and have conceded 15 goals from those chances, 3.16 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Bukayo Saka has the most expected goals (xG) for Arsenal over their last 20 Premier League games, 5.59 xG in 16 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Kai Havertz is next with 5.14 xG.
Arsenal have taken 9.1 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +0.7 goals against their xG, and +3.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 34.31 | 35 | +0.69 | 18.16 | 15 | +3.16 | 37.86 | 47 | +9.14 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 19.37 | 17 | -2.37 | 8.03 | 6 | +2.03 | 21.05 | 27 | +5.95 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.08 | 7 | -2.08 | 5.12 | 5 | +0.12 | 9.54 | 12 | +2.46 |
| Home | 10 | 19.23 | 20 | +0.77 | 6.78 | 5 | +1.78 | 21.71 | 27 | +5.29 |
| Away | 10 | 15.08 | 15 | -0.08 | 11.38 | 10 | +1.38 | 16.15 | 20 | +3.85 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Premier League | Leeds (H) | 2-1 | 2.13 | 0.72 | 2.28 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | Premier League | Brighton (A) | 3-0 | 1.48 | 1.60 | 1.31 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | Premier League | Sunderland (A) | 0-2 | 1.95 | 1.87 | 1.44 | 3 | W |
| 6 Sep | Premier League | Chelsea (H) | 2-1 | 2.27 | 0.50 | 2.49 | 3 | W |
| 31 Aug | Premier League | Villa (A) | 0-1 | 1.25 | 0.43 | 2.02 | 3 | W |
| 21 Aug | Premier League | Coventry (H) | 3-0 | 2.10 | 0.19 | 2.63 | 3 | W |
| 24 May | Premier League | Palace (A) | 1-2 | 2.42 | 0.93 | 2.27 | 3 | W |
| 18 May | Premier League | Burnley (H) | 1-0 | 1.40 | 0.39 | 2.16 | 3 | W |
| 10 May | Premier League | West Ham (A) | 0-1 | 1.47 | 0.92 | 1.77 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | Premier League | Fulham (H) | 3-0 | 2.90 | 0.48 | 2.68 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | Premier League | Newcastle (H) | 1-0 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 1.34 | 3 | D |
| 19 Apr | Premier League | Man City (A) | 2-1 | 1.38 | 1.76 | 1.14 | 0 | L |
| 11 Apr | Premier League | B'mouth (H) | 1-2 | 2.72 | 1.34 | 2.16 | 0 | W |
| 14 Mar | Premier League | Everton (H) | 2-0 | 1.99 | 1.03 | 2.00 | 3 | W |
| 4 Mar | Premier League | Brighton (A) | 0-1 | 0.46 | 0.98 | 0.86 | 3 | L |
| 1 Mar | Premier League | Chelsea (H) | 2-1 | 1.69 | 1.15 | 1.74 | 3 | W |
| 22 Feb | Premier League | Spurs (A) | 1-4 | 2.22 | 0.91 | 2.20 | 3 | W |
| 18 Feb | Premier League | Wolves (A) | 2-2 | 1.53 | 0.37 | 2.25 | 1 | W |
| 12 Feb | Premier League | Brentford (A) | 1-1 | 0.92 | 1.61 | 0.89 | 1 | L |
| 7 Feb | Premier League | Sunderland (H) | 3-0 | 1.20 | 0.16 | 2.23 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Gyökeres | attacker | 17 | 825 | 4.56 | 8 | +3.44 | 0.50 |
| Bruno Guimarães | midfielder | 4 | 150 | 0.17 | 2 | +1.83 | 0.10 |
| Noni Madueke | attacker | 14 | 688 | 1.17 | 2 | +0.83 | 0.15 |
| Piero Hincapié | defender | 14 | 808 | 0.23 | 1 | +0.77 | 0.03 |
| Max Dowman | attacker | 5 | 135 | 0.50 | 1 | +0.50 | 0.33 |
| Bukayo Saka | attacker | 16 | 1187 | 5.59 | 6 | +0.41 | 0.42 |
| Jurriën Timber | defender | 10 | 676 | 0.61 | 1 | +0.39 | 0.08 |
| Eberechi Eze | midfielder | 18 | 921 | 2.62 | 3 | +0.38 | 0.26 |
| William Saliba | defender | 11 | 990 | 0.67 | 1 | +0.33 | 0.06 |
| MartÃn Zubimendi | midfielder | 19 | 1090 | 0.74 | 1 | +0.26 | 0.06 |
| Gabriel Jesus | attacker | 5 | 200 | 0.80 | 1 | +0.20 | 0.36 |
| Martin Ødegaard | midfielder | 12 | 822 | 2.07 | 2 | -0.07 | 0.23 |
| Leandro Trossard | attacker | 11 | 671 | 1.55 | 1 | -0.55 | 0.21 |
| Riccardo Calafiori | defender | 15 | 931 | 1.96 | 1 | -0.96 | 0.19 |
| Kai Havertz | attacker | 16 | 992 | 5.14 | 4 | -1.14 | 0.47 |
| Gabriel Martinelli | attacker | 12 | 492 | 1.71 | 0 | -1.71 | 0.31 |
| Gabriel Magalhães | defender | 20 | 1754 | 2.21 | 0 | -2.21 | 0.11 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 11.1 | 16 | 6.8 | 5 | 10.9 | 18 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 12 | 18 | 9.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 6 | 11.2 | 10 | 5.3 | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 6 | 6.5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 6 | 8.8 | 15 | 9.6 | 13 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 6 | 7.5 | 10 | 11.6 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +2 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 13.8 | 12 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Everton | 6 | 8.4 | 8 | 8.4 | 5 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 6 | 7.9 | 8 | 9.1 | 5 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 9.9 | 12 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | Brentford | 6 | 11.2 | 12 | 8.8 | 6 | 9.2 | 10 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Coventry City | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 10.7 | 11 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 6 | 10.5 | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 6 | 6.6 | 6 | 10.3 | 11 | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 6 | 11.1 | 9 | 6.9 | 9 | 9.9 | 6 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 10.1 | 5 | 7.7 | 8 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 6.9 | 3 | 9.1 | 9 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 6 | 10.3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9.1 | 4 | -5.1 |
| 19 | Fulham | 6 | 9.7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | -6 |
| 20 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 8.7 | 7 | 7.2 | 13 | 9.2 | 3 | -6.2 |