Player Props - Projections for Shots, Fouls, Cards & More
Player prop edges on shots, shots on target and fouls, ranked by expected return.
Updated 17 October 2026
Player Props - Projections for Shots, Fouls, Cards & More
Bookmakers price player props with less precision than match odds, which is where the edges live. We only publish them in the markets where our own projections have earned the right to be trusted. This page shows shots, shots on target and fouls committed. They are officially recorded stats, priced deeply enough for us to strip the bookmaker's margin out of the odds and compare like for like. Markets whose settled record does not support them are withheld rather than padded onto the page, and any market that starts losing is pulled automatically. Every pick shows the model's probability, the market's margin-free probability and the expected return per unit staked at the price on offer. That return is what the list is ranked by, because the same edge is worth far more on a 4.00 shot than a 1.20 one. Picks require the player to be in the expected XI, since a no-start voids the bet. The model's number also has to agree with the player's recent hit rate before a pick qualifies. For the empirical view of the same markets, last-six-game hit rates rather than the projection, see Form Edges.
Top 40 player prop picks this week
| Player |
Team |
Match |
Kick-off (UK) |
Stat |
Star rating |
| Sofiane Bendebka | Al Hazm | Al Hazm v Al-Fayha | Thu 22 Oct, 14:40 | Shots on target | 5.0 of 5 |
| Enes Alic | St. Johnstone | St. Johnstone v Dundee United | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 | Shots on target | 5.0 of 5 |
| Diego Caito | Grêmio | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 | Shots on target | 5.0 of 5 |
| Agustín Quiroga | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v Aldosivi | Sun 18 Oct, 22:00 | Shots on target | 5.0 of 5 |
| Bonheur Mugisha | Al Hazm | Al Hazm v Al-Fayha | Thu 22 Oct, 14:40 | Shots | 5.0 of 5 |
| Alexander Barboza | Palmeiras | Athletico PR v Palmeiras | Sat 17 Oct, 23:30 | Fouls | 5.0 of 5 |
| Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe | Al Hazm | Al Hazm v Al-Fayha | Thu 22 Oct, 14:40 | Shots | 5.0 of 5 |
| Marvin Pieringer | Paderborn | Werder Bremen v Paderborn | Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 | Fouls | 5.0 of 5 |
| Renan Lodi | Atlético Mineiro | Atlético Mineiro v Coritiba | Sat 17 Oct, 22:30 | Shots | 5.0 of 5 |
| Sofiane Bendebka | Al Hazm | Al Hazm v Al-Fayha | Thu 22 Oct, 14:40 | Shots | 5.0 of 5 |
| Enes Alic | St. Johnstone | St. Johnstone v Dundee United | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 | Shots | 5.0 of 5 |
| Nico Paz | Como | Fiorentina v Como | Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | Fouls | 5.0 of 5 |
| Kenny Tete | Fulham | Fulham v Hull City | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 | Shots | 4.9 of 5 |
| Rolando Mandragora | Torino | Torino v Monza | Fri 23 Oct, 19:45 | Shots on target | 4.8 of 5 |
| Djibril Coulibaly | Nice | Brest v Nice | Fri 23 Oct, 19:45 | Fouls | 4.8 of 5 |
| João Paulo | Chapecoense | Botafogo v Chapecoense | Sat 17 Oct, 22:00 | Fouls | 4.7 of 5 |
| Afimico Pululu | Al Hazm | Al Hazm v Al-Fayha | Thu 22 Oct, 14:40 | Shots | 4.7 of 5 |
| Nicolás Zalazar | Aldosivi | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v Aldosivi | Sun 18 Oct, 22:00 | Shots | 4.7 of 5 |
| Rui Mendes | Telstar | Telstar v Feyenoord | Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 | Shots on target | 4.7 of 5 |
| Jacobo Ramón | Como | Fiorentina v Como | Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | Fouls | 4.7 of 5 |
| Ángel Recio | Málaga | Málaga v Real Sociedad | Sun 18 Oct, 17:30 | Shots | 4.6 of 5 |
| Ozan Kabak | TSG Hoffenheim | Borussia Mönchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim | Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 | Fouls | 4.6 of 5 |
| Adrien Monfray | Troyes | Troyes v Lens | Sat 17 Oct, 19:45 | Shots | 4.6 of 5 |
| Lassine Sinayoko | Paris | Paris v Rennes | Sun 18 Oct, 16:15 | Shots on target | 4.6 of 5 |
| Francisco Álvarez | Argentinos Juniors | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 | Shots | 4.6 of 5 |
| P. Mattsson | Norwich City | Norwich City v Portsmouth | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 | Fouls | 4.5 of 5 |
| Yan Couto | Como | Fiorentina v Como | Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | Fouls | 4.5 of 5 |
| Fabio Gruber | FSV Mainz 05 | Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 | Fouls | 4.5 of 5 |
| Jonathan Tah | FC Bayern München | FC Bayern München v RB Leipzig | Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 | Fouls | 4.4 of 5 |
| Luciano Andrés Vallejo | Atlético Tucumán | Atlético Tucumán v Rosario Central | Sun 18 Oct, 00:00 | Shots | 4.4 of 5 |
| Alessandro Bastoni | Inter | Bologna v Inter | Sat 17 Oct, 17:00 | Fouls | 4.4 of 5 |
| Ramiro Ruiz Rodríguez | Atlético Tucumán | Atlético Tucumán v Rosario Central | Sun 18 Oct, 00:00 | Shots on target | 4.4 of 5 |
| Ruben Kluivert | Olympique Lyonnais | Olympique Lyonnais v Nice | Sun 18 Oct, 19:45 | Fouls | 4.4 of 5 |
| Lukas Ullrich | Borussia Mönchengladbach | VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach | Fri 23 Oct, 19:30 | Fouls | 4.4 of 5 |
| Paul Nsio | St. Mirren | Aberdeen v St. Mirren | Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 | Fouls | 4.4 of 5 |
| Jonathan Clauss | Nice | Brest v Nice | Fri 23 Oct, 19:45 | Shots | 4.4 of 5 |
| Deniz Undav | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 | Fouls | 4.4 of 5 |
| Matheus Pereira | Cruzeiro | Cruzeiro v Remo | Sat 24 Oct, 00:00 | Shots | 4.4 of 5 |
| Lucas Tousart | Brest | Brest v Nice | Fri 23 Oct, 19:45 | Shots on target | 4.4 of 5 |
| Kacper Potulski | FSV Mainz 05 | Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 | Fouls | 4.3 of 5 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best player props this week?
The best player props this week are the 102 rated four stars or more among the 1,432 Statz picks from 17 to 24 October, on shots, shots on target and fouls across 162 matches in 20 competitions, with the most in the Championship (188).
How is the edge on a player prop calculated?
Every one of the 1,432 Statz player props this week has a positive edge: our probability minus the bookmaker's, after the margin is stripped from the price using the whole ladder for that player and stat. Our projection is shrunk toward the market first, because a big disagreement with the price is usually model error.
Why are only some stats shown?
Statz shows player props on shots, shots on target and fouls only (489, 373 and 570 of this week's 1,432 picks), because they are officially recorded and priced deeply enough to analyse. Goals and cards were measurably unprofitable and stay withheld until their settled record supports them.
What happens if the player does not start?
A player prop is void at most bookmakers when the player does not start, so the 1,432 Statz picks this week are limited to players in the expected or confirmed XI once a lineup is out. Our own record settles a no-start the same way, as a void rather than a loss.
Why is the list ranked by expected return rather than by edge?
Because two percentage points of edge on a 1.20 shot and two on a 5.00 shot are not the same bet. Expected return converts the edge into what it is worth per unit staked, which is the only ranking that treats short and long prices consistently.
Which bookmakers are compared?
Statz compares player prop prices at five bookmakers this week, Coral, Ladbrokes, Bet365, Midnite and BoyleSports, and each of the 1,432 picks shows the best available price with a direct betslip link where the feed supports one.
Are alternate lines included?
Yes, 1+, 2+ and 3+ are projected for each player and stat, and the deeper lines are treated more cautiously: a projection error moves the probability of three or more far more than it moves one or more.
How often do prices update?
The Statz player prop board was last updated on 17 October 2026: bookmaker prices refresh several times a day and the page follows them, while the projections behind its 1,432 picks are recalculated daily.
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