Monday's treble went down on the first leg. Osasuna could not break Levante down at home and drew 0-0, which killed it before Roma had kicked off - they won 4-0 - and before Chelsea won 3-2 at Fulham. Two from three and nothing to show for it. The season stands at one winner from four and +1.18pts.
Tonight is the Carabao Cup second round, seventeen ties, and it needs a health warning before anything else. Nobody knows who is rotating. Some managers will field youngsters and a pure second string; others will want to protect league momentum and make one or two changes at most. Our projections are built on league form and were generated on Friday, so they do not know tonight's team news. Both slips below are priced off full-strength expectations.
So treat these as a starting position rather than a finished bet, and check the team news about an hour before kick-off - lineups land on the fixture pages as they are announced. If a side you have backed names a teenage midfield, that is your cue to leave it alone. We have written up how to approach the round in our guide to betting the second round.
The three shortest projected winners on the card, all of them home-or-away favourites the model makes better than 61%. Middlesbrough at Doncaster is the one it likes most on the road.
Combined odds: 3.81 with bet365 at the time of writing, staked 1pt.
The other way to play a rotation night. If neither manager is at full strength the defending tends to suffer first, and these are the three ties the model most expects both sides to score in. It also sidesteps the question of which team is taking it seriously, because it only needs a goal at each end.
Combined odds: 4.01 with bet365 at the time of writing, staked 1pt.
Every Daily Acca settles here on a tiered stake - 1pt under 5.0, 0.5pt from 5.0 to 15.0, 0.25pt above that - because a short double and a long-odds five-fold are not the same bet. One winner from 4 so far, and the season is +1.18pts.
Every slip starts in the Statz Acca Builder, which prices the day's match and goals markets against the projections model and selects legs by projected probability - not by price, and never by a claimed "edge" against the bookmaker. The day's strategy decides how they combine: a short-priced treble on a quiet card, a both-teams-to-score slip when the model likes goals, a longer five-fold on a full weekend.
Legs are shown in kickoff order, the way the day actually unfolds, with each leg's price and the model's probability beside it. Every slip carries its combined price and a one-tap link that loads all the legs into your bookmaker's betslip, and the season ledger below keeps the full settled record.
Slips are staked on a tiered ladder: one point at combined odds under 5.0, half a point from 5.0 to 15.0, and a quarter point above that. A short double and a long-odds five-fold are not the same bet, and a record that stakes them identically flatters whichever kind has been luckier lately.
The running total is quoted in points, wins and losses both published. Accumulators are high-variance by design - most slips lose, including good ones - which is exactly why the record is public.
The slip goes up in the morning, UK time, on days with a card worth betting on. Cup nights and international breaks sometimes offer nothing our covered competitions price properly; on those days the column says so rather than forcing a slip out of weak markets.
Prices are the best available at the time of writing and move through the day, sometimes sharply near kickoff. The one-tap betslip link, where shown, repopulates the same legs at the bookmaker's current prices.
An accumulator combines outcomes across different matches, so its legs are close to independent; a bet builder stacks selections inside one game, so one match script drives every leg. The Daily Acca is the cross-match column; its single-game sibling publishes one builder per match on the bet builder tips page, under the same staking ladder and the same public-record rule.
Every leg links its full match stats page - form, head-to-head, projected lineups and the model's numbers for both teams. The Acca Builder prices every market on the day's card, so you can rebuild today's slip with your own legs, drop the one you disagree with, or raise the risk band if the price is too short for you.
One accumulator a day, built from the Statz projections model: a small number of selections across the day's fixtures, combined into a single slip with the prices and the reasoning shown. A new slip is published every morning there is a card worth betting on.
Every leg starts in the Statz Acca Builder, which prices the day's match and goals markets against the model's projections. The day's strategy - a safe short-price slip, a both-teams-to-score treble, a longer-odds value slip - decides how the legs are combined.
Yes - every slip settles into a public record on a tiered stake: 1pt at odds under 5.0, 0.5pt from 5.0 to 15.0 and 0.25pt above that, because a short double and a long-odds five-fold are not the same bet. Wins and losses both go up, and accumulators are high-variance by design: most slips lose, which is exactly why the record is published.
The slip for each day is published in the morning, UK time, and the prices shown are the prices at the time of writing - they can move before kickoff.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. If you need to take a break, GamStop (gamstop.co.uk) lets you self-exclude from all UK-licensed betting sites.