Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 12 October 2026, after the last game
AFC Bournemouth have the biggest shortfall in the Premier League: 3 points from chances worth 9.2 xPts, a gap of 6.2. At the other end, Manchester City have taken 18 points from an xPts figure of 10.9, 7.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 3 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | +5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | +7 | 3.3 | +3.7 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 3 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | +4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 |
| 4 | Brentford | 3 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | +6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| 5 | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | -1 | 2.5 | -3.5 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 3 | 11 | 5.5 | +5.5 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | +5 | 1.8 | +3.2 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 |
| 7 | Manchester United | 3 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | +2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 8 | Fulham | 3 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | -2 | 1.9 | -3.9 | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 |
| 9 | Ipswich Town | 3 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | +0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Sunderland | 3 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | -3 | 0.6 | -3.6 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 11 | Leeds United | 3 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | +3 | 0.6 | +2.4 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 |
| 12 | Liverpool | 3 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | -3 | 0.3 | -3.3 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 3 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | -2 | 0.4 | -2.4 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 |
| 14 | Everton | 3 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | +3 | 0.3 | +2.7 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 |
| 15 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 |
| 16 | Coventry City | 3 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | -3 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | -2 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 1 | 3.1 | -2.1 |
| 18 | Hull City | 3 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | +2 | -2.4 | +4.4 | 5 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| 19 | Newcastle United | 3 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | +1 | -3.3 | +4.3 | 5 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | -2 | -3.3 | +1.3 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nottingham Forest | 3 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | -1 | 2.1 | -3.1 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 3 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 3 | 8 | 4.5 | +3.5 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | +7 | 1.8 | +5.2 | 9 | 5.0 | +4.0 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 3 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | -2 | 1.6 | -3.6 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 6 | Sunderland | 3 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 | -3 | 0.7 | -3.7 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 |
| 7 | Everton | 3 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | +0 | -0.3 | +0.3 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 |
| 8 | Hull City | 3 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 10 | 4.8 | +5.2 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | +6 | -1.1 | +7.1 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 10 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 3 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 4.9 | +3.1 | -4 | -0.9 | -3.1 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 12 | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | 9 | 4.0 | +5.0 | -5 | -1.0 | -4.0 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 |
| 13 | Brentford | 3 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | +0 | -1.1 | +1.1 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | -3 | -2.2 | -0.8 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 15 | Ipswich Town | 3 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -2.9 | -0.1 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| 16 | Fulham | 3 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | -2 | -1.2 | -0.8 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Leeds United | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | +0 | -1.7 | +1.7 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | -1 | -2.9 | +1.9 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 19 | Chelsea | 3 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -2.6 | -0.4 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 20 | Coventry City | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | -3 | -3.9 | +0.9 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | +2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 |
| 2 | AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | 11 | 5.1 | +5.9 | -5 | 3.0 | -8.0 | 3 | 8.7 | -5.7 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 5 | 14 | 8.9 | +5.1 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | +10 | 2.7 | +7.3 | 15 | 8.5 | +6.5 |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 5 | 9.4 | -4.4 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | -2 | 2.5 | -4.5 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 |
| 5 | Sunderland | 5 | 5 | 9.4 | -4.4 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | -5 | 1.8 | -6.8 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 5 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | +2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | -3 | 1.1 | -4.1 | 3 | 7.6 | -4.6 |
| 8 | Everton | 5 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | +1 | 0.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 5 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | +0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 |
| 10 | Fulham | 5 | 4 | 8.2 | -4.2 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | -3 | 1.1 | -4.1 | 2 | 6.9 | -4.9 |
| 11 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 14 | 8.8 | +5.2 | 5 | 9.4 | -4.4 | +9 | -0.6 | +9.6 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 |
| 12 | Brentford | 5 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 | +3 | -0.9 | +3.9 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Aston Villa | 5 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 |
| 14 | Leeds United | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 | +2 | -1.1 | +3.1 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 |
| 15 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 11 | 9.0 | +2.0 | -4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| 16 | Hull City | 5 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | +0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 |
| 17 | Chelsea | 5 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 | 11 | 8.1 | +2.9 | +1 | -1.2 | +2.2 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
| 18 | Newcastle United | 5 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | 11 | 8.0 | +3.0 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 |
| 19 | Coventry City | 5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | -3 | -2.9 | -0.1 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 9 | 5.9 | +3.1 | 10 | 12.4 | -2.4 | -1 | -6.4 | +5.4 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 |
Chelsea are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Premier League in 2026/2027, with 15 goals from chances worth 8.8 xG, a gap of 6.2. Brighton & Hove Albion are next on 6.0.
Nottingham Forest are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Premier League in 2026/2027, with 5 goals from chances worth 10.1 xG, a shortfall of 5.1. Sunderland are next on 4.3.
Manchester City are the luckiest side in the Premier League in 2026/2027, with 18 points from performances worth 10.9 xPts, 7.1 more than their chances deserved. Brighton & Hove Albion are next on 3.4.
AFC Bournemouth are the unluckiest side in the Premier League in 2026/2027, with 3 points from performances worth 9.2 xPts, 6.2 short of what they deserved. Fulham are next on 6.0.
Arsenal would be top of the Premier League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 12.2 xPts from 11.2 xG created and 5.3 conceded across six matches. Manchester City are next on 10.9.
Brighton & Hove Albion have created the most xG in the Premier League in 2026/2027, 12.0 from six matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Arsenal and Brentford are next on 11.2.
Coventry City have created the least xG in the Premier League in 2026/2027, 5.9 from six matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Hull City are next on 6.5.
Crystal Palace have conceded the most xG in the Premier League in 2026/2027, 13.8 from six matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Newcastle United are next on 11.6.
Arsenal have conceded the least xG in the Premier League in 2026/2027, 5.3 from six matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Manchester City are next on 6.8.
Premier League teams have averaged 1.50 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 60 matches played, and have scored 1.48 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.47 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Premier League teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.62 a game against 1.38 away, a home advantage of +0.24, against +0.32 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 6 | 10 | 11.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | +5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 15 | 12.2 | +2.8 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 6 | 16 | 11.1 | +4.9 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | +11 | 4.3 | +6.7 | 18 | 10.9 | +7.1 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 6 | 9 | 11.1 | -2.1 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | +0 | 4.3 | -4.3 | 6 | 9.9 | -3.9 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 6 | 7 | 10.5 | -3.5 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 | +0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | 9 | 9.7 | -0.7 |
| 5 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 5 | 10.1 | -5.1 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | -3 | 2.5 | -5.5 | 5 | 9.7 | -4.7 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 18 | 12.0 | +6.0 | 5 | 9.7 | -4.7 | +13 | 2.3 | +10.7 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 |
| 7 | Brentford | 6 | 12 | 11.2 | +0.8 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | +6 | 2.4 | +3.6 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | 13 | 7.2 | +5.8 | -6 | 1.4 | -7.4 | 3 | 9.2 | -6.2 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 6 | 6 | 10.3 | -4.3 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 | -6 | 1.3 | -7.3 | 4 | 9.1 | -5.1 |
| 10 | Everton | 6 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 | +3 | 0.0 | +3.0 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 |
| 11 | Fulham | 6 | 6 | 9.7 | -3.7 | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 | -4 | 0.7 | -4.7 | 2 | 8.0 | -6.0 |
| 12 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 | -3 | -2.3 | -0.7 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 |
| 13 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 3 | 6.9 | -3.9 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | -6 | -2.2 | -3.8 | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 |
| 14 | Chelsea | 6 | 15 | 8.8 | +6.2 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 | +2 | -0.8 | +2.8 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 |
| 15 | Leeds United | 6 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | 5 | 9.1 | -4.1 | +3 | -1.1 | +4.1 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 |
| 16 | Hull City | 6 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 6 | 9.0 | -3.0 | +2 | -2.5 | +4.5 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 6 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | -5 | -3.7 | -1.3 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 |
| 18 | Newcastle United | 6 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | 13 | 11.6 | +1.4 | -3 | -4.1 | +1.1 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 19 | Coventry City | 6 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 11 | 10.7 | +0.3 | -6 | -4.9 | -1.1 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 12 | 13.8 | -1.8 | -3 | -6.2 | +3.2 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |