Wolverhampton Wanderers have the biggest shortfall in the Premier League: 20 points from chances worth 38.0 xPts, a gap of 18.0. At the other end, Aston Villa have taken 65 points from an xPts figure of 52.4, 12.6 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 19 | 41 | 39.6 | +1.4 | 11 | 13.7 | -2.7 | +30 | 25.9 | +4.1 | 47 | 41.5 | +5.5 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 19 | 45 | 38.2 | +6.8 | 14 | 21.8 | -7.8 | +31 | 16.4 | +14.6 | 45 | 36.0 | +9.0 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 19 | 39 | 40.2 | -1.2 | 24 | 23.1 | +0.9 | +15 | 17.2 | -2.2 | 42 | 35.7 | +6.3 |
| 4 | AFC Bournemouth | 19 | 29 | 32.0 | -3.0 | 20 | 18.7 | +1.3 | +9 | 13.3 | -4.3 | 31 | 34.9 | -3.9 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 19 | 34 | 34.2 | -0.2 | 20 | 20.5 | -0.5 | +14 | 13.7 | +0.3 | 36 | 34.5 | +1.5 |
| 6 | Leeds United | 19 | 29 | 34.7 | -5.7 | 21 | 23.6 | -2.6 | +8 | 11.1 | -3.1 | 32 | 33.2 | -1.2 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 19 | 26 | 37.5 | -11.5 | 25 | 25.7 | -0.7 | +1 | 11.8 | -10.8 | 26 | 32.7 | -6.7 |
| 8 | Newcastle United | 19 | 36 | 38.0 | -2.0 | 30 | 29.3 | +0.7 | +6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | 32 | 31.6 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 19 | 30 | 29.4 | +0.6 | 20 | 23.1 | -3.1 | +10 | 6.3 | +3.7 | 33 | 30.4 | +2.6 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 19 | 32 | 28.0 | +4.0 | 22 | 21.5 | +0.5 | +10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | 38 | 30.3 | +7.7 |
| 11 | Brentford | 19 | 33 | 35.5 | -2.5 | 21 | 28.5 | -7.5 | +12 | 7.0 | +5.0 | 32 | 30.2 | +1.8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 19 | 19 | 32.7 | -13.7 | 23 | 26.1 | -3.1 | -4 | 6.6 | -10.6 | 21 | 30.2 | -9.2 |
| 13 | Fulham | 19 | 30 | 28.6 | +1.4 | 20 | 24.2 | -4.2 | +10 | 4.4 | +5.6 | 35 | 28.9 | +6.1 |
| 14 | Everton | 19 | 26 | 27.8 | -1.8 | 27 | 23.9 | +3.1 | -1 | 3.9 | -4.9 | 23 | 28.7 | -5.7 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 19 | 20 | 29.5 | -9.5 | 23 | 26.1 | -3.1 | -3 | 3.4 | -6.4 | 20 | 28.2 | -8.2 |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur | 19 | 22 | 24.9 | -2.9 | 31 | 26.3 | +4.7 | -9 | -1.3 | -7.7 | 15 | 26.4 | -11.4 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 19 | 25 | 22.8 | +2.2 | 20 | 25.2 | -5.2 | +5 | -2.5 | +7.5 | 33 | 25.3 | +7.7 |
| 18 | West Ham United | 19 | 27 | 28.6 | -1.6 | 30 | 31.5 | -1.5 | -3 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 22 | 24.6 | -2.6 |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19 | 19 | 20.5 | -1.5 | 34 | 28.4 | +5.6 | -15 | -7.9 | -7.1 | 14 | 21.9 | -7.9 |
| 20 | Burnley | 19 | 18 | 18.5 | -0.5 | 29 | 37.7 | -8.7 | -11 | -19.2 | +8.2 | 13 | 16.3 | -3.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 19 | 30 | 31.5 | -1.5 | 16 | 19.8 | -3.8 | +14 | 11.7 | +2.3 | 38 | 33.5 | +4.5 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 19 | 32 | 34.9 | -2.9 | 21 | 25.3 | -4.3 | +11 | 9.6 | +1.4 | 33 | 32.0 | +1.0 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 19 | 32 | 31.0 | +1.0 | 27 | 26.4 | +0.6 | +5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 26 | 28.1 | -2.1 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 19 | 29 | 29.9 | -0.9 | 33 | 26.4 | +6.6 | -4 | 3.6 | -7.6 | 24 | 27.7 | -3.7 |
| 5 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 19 | 22 | 28.2 | -6.2 | 26 | 28.8 | -2.8 | -4 | -0.6 | -3.4 | 20 | 25.8 | -5.8 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 19 | 30 | 29.3 | +0.7 | 26 | 29.4 | -3.4 | +4 | -0.1 | +4.1 | 29 | 25.1 | +3.9 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 19 | 22 | 26.1 | -4.1 | 28 | 28.5 | -0.5 | -6 | -2.4 | -3.6 | 24 | 24.7 | -0.7 |
| 8 | Newcastle United | 19 | 17 | 21.5 | -4.5 | 25 | 26.3 | -1.3 | -8 | -4.8 | -3.2 | 17 | 22.9 | -5.9 |
| 9 | Fulham | 19 | 17 | 24.8 | -7.8 | 31 | 30.1 | +0.9 | -14 | -5.3 | -8.7 | 17 | 22.8 | -5.8 |
| 10 | Tottenham Hotspur | 19 | 26 | 20.5 | +5.5 | 26 | 27.3 | -1.3 | +0 | -6.8 | +6.8 | 26 | 22.2 | +3.8 |
| 11 | Brentford | 19 | 22 | 23.5 | -1.5 | 31 | 30.6 | +0.4 | -9 | -7.1 | -1.9 | 21 | 22.2 | -1.2 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 19 | 24 | 24.1 | -0.1 | 27 | 30.1 | -3.1 | -3 | -6.0 | +3.0 | 27 | 22.1 | +4.9 |
| 13 | AFC Bournemouth | 19 | 29 | 31.5 | -2.5 | 34 | 41.2 | -7.2 | -5 | -9.7 | +4.7 | 26 | 22.0 | +4.0 |
| 14 | Leeds United | 19 | 20 | 26.1 | -6.1 | 35 | 36.7 | -1.7 | -15 | -10.5 | -4.5 | 15 | 21.3 | -6.3 |
| 15 | Everton | 19 | 21 | 22.7 | -1.7 | 23 | 32.4 | -9.4 | -2 | -9.6 | +7.6 | 26 | 20.4 | +5.6 |
| 16 | West Ham United | 19 | 19 | 23.1 | -4.1 | 35 | 36.1 | -1.1 | -16 | -12.9 | -3.1 | 17 | 19.2 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 19 | 28 | 19.7 | +8.3 | 28 | 34.4 | -6.4 | +0 | -14.7 | +14.7 | 24 | 18.0 | +6.0 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 19 | 17 | 18.9 | -1.9 | 28 | 34.3 | -6.3 | -11 | -15.4 | +4.4 | 21 | 16.8 | +4.2 |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19 | 8 | 16.0 | -8.0 | 34 | 33.8 | +0.2 | -26 | -17.7 | -8.3 | 6 | 16.1 | -10.1 |
| 20 | Burnley | 19 | 20 | 15.3 | +4.7 | 46 | 43.6 | +2.4 | -26 | -28.3 | +2.3 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | +7 | 5.5 | +1.5 | 15 | 10.2 | +4.8 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | +0 | 4.4 | -4.4 | 6 | 9.6 | -3.6 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 5 | 11 | 10.6 | +0.4 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | +6 | 3.8 | +2.2 | 13 | 8.5 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | +2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 |
| 5 | Manchester City | 5 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | +5 | 2.3 | +2.7 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | Fulham | 5 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | -1 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 7 | AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 | +4 | 0.7 | +3.3 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 5 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | +1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 5 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | -2 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 3 | 6.9 | -3.9 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | -4 | 0.1 | -4.1 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 5 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.6 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 |
| 12 | Everton | 5 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | 11 | 8.2 | +2.8 | -4 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 2 | 6.3 | -4.3 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 12 | 8.0 | +4.0 | 6 | 9.9 | -3.9 | +6 | -1.9 | +7.9 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 14 | West Ham United | 5 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | -2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| 15 | Liverpool | 5 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | -1 | -2.0 | +1.0 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 | -7 | -2.1 | -4.9 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 |
| 17 | Leeds United | 5 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 9.9 | -2.9 | +0 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 18 | Brentford | 5 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | -1 | -3.3 | +2.3 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 19 | Chelsea | 5 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | -5 | -2.4 | -2.6 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 |
| 20 | Burnley | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 | -4 | -5.5 | +1.5 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 |
Burnley overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Premier League in 2025/2026, with 38 goals from chances worth 33.8 xG, a gap of 4.2. Manchester City were next on 3.9.
Crystal Palace underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Premier League in 2025/2026, with 41 goals from chances worth 58.8 xG, a shortfall of 17.8. Leeds United were next on 11.8.
Aston Villa were the luckiest side in the Premier League in 2025/2026, with 65 points from performances worth 52.4 xPts, 12.6 more than their chances deserved. Sunderland were next on 11.9.
Wolverhampton Wanderers were the unluckiest side in the Premier League in 2025/2026, with 20 points from performances worth 38.0 xPts, 18.0 short of what they deserved. Crystal Palace were next on 9.8.
Arsenal were also top of the Premier League in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 74.9 xPts from 71.2 xG created and 33.5 conceded across 38 matches. Manchester City were next on 68.0.
Manchester City created the most xG in the Premier League in 2025/2026, 73.1 from 38 matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Arsenal were next on 71.2.
Burnley created the least xG in the Premier League in 2025/2026, 33.8 from 38 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Wolverhampton Wanderers were next on 36.5.
Burnley conceded the most xG in the Premier League in 2025/2026, 81.3 from 38 matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. West Ham United were next on 67.5.
Arsenal conceded the least xG in the Premier League in 2025/2026, 33.5 from 38 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Liverpool were next on 46.9.
Premier League teams averaged 1.47 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 380 matches played, and scored 1.38 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.49 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Premier League teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.63 a game against 1.31 away, a home advantage of +0.32, against +0.16 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 71 | 71.2 | -0.2 | 27 | 33.5 | -6.5 | +44 | 37.6 | +6.4 | 85 | 74.9 | +10.1 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 77 | 73.1 | +3.9 | 35 | 47.1 | -12.1 | +42 | 26.0 | +16.0 | 78 | 68.0 | +10.0 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 38 | 63 | 64.1 | -1.1 | 53 | 46.9 | +6.1 | +10 | 17.3 | -7.3 | 60 | 62.2 | -2.2 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 38 | 69 | 69.6 | -0.6 | 50 | 52.4 | -2.4 | +19 | 17.1 | +1.9 | 71 | 60.8 | +10.2 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 38 | 58 | 68.5 | -10.5 | 52 | 52.1 | -0.1 | +6 | 16.5 | -10.5 | 52 | 60.8 | -8.8 |
| 6 | AFC Bournemouth | 38 | 58 | 63.5 | -5.5 | 54 | 59.9 | -5.9 | +4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | 57 | 56.9 | +0.1 |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 38 | 52 | 57.7 | -5.7 | 46 | 52.0 | -6.0 | +6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 53 | 56.2 | -3.2 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 41 | 58.8 | -17.8 | 51 | 54.6 | -3.6 | -10 | 4.2 | -14.2 | 45 | 54.8 | -9.8 |
| 9 | Newcastle United | 38 | 53 | 59.5 | -6.5 | 55 | 55.6 | -0.6 | -2 | 4.0 | -6.0 | 49 | 54.5 | -5.5 |
| 10 | Leeds United | 38 | 49 | 60.8 | -11.8 | 56 | 60.2 | -4.2 | -7 | 0.6 | -7.6 | 47 | 54.4 | -7.4 |
| 11 | Brentford | 38 | 55 | 59.0 | -4.0 | 52 | 59.1 | -7.1 | +3 | -0.1 | +3.1 | 53 | 52.5 | +0.5 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 38 | 56 | 52.2 | +3.8 | 49 | 51.7 | -2.7 | +7 | 0.5 | +6.5 | 65 | 52.4 | +12.6 |
| 13 | Fulham | 38 | 47 | 53.4 | -6.4 | 51 | 54.3 | -3.3 | -4 | -0.9 | -3.1 | 52 | 51.7 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Everton | 38 | 47 | 50.5 | -3.5 | 50 | 56.3 | -6.3 | -3 | -5.7 | +2.7 | 49 | 49.1 | -0.1 |
| 15 | Tottenham Hotspur | 38 | 48 | 45.5 | +2.5 | 57 | 53.6 | +3.4 | -9 | -8.1 | -0.9 | 41 | 48.6 | -7.6 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 48 | 49.3 | -1.3 | 51 | 60.5 | -9.5 | -3 | -11.3 | +8.3 | 44 | 46.2 | -2.2 |
| 17 | West Ham United | 38 | 46 | 51.8 | -5.8 | 65 | 67.5 | -2.5 | -19 | -15.8 | -3.2 | 39 | 43.8 | -4.8 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 38 | 42 | 41.7 | +0.3 | 48 | 59.6 | -11.6 | -6 | -17.9 | +11.9 | 54 | 42.1 | +11.9 |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 38 | 27 | 36.5 | -9.5 | 68 | 62.2 | +5.8 | -41 | -25.7 | -15.3 | 20 | 38.0 | -18.0 |
| 20 | Burnley | 38 | 38 | 33.8 | +4.2 | 75 | 81.3 | -6.3 | -37 | -47.5 | +10.5 | 22 | 26.5 | -4.5 |