Premier League Predictions – GW30 + Previous Weeks

Gameweek 36 – 2-3 May 2026

Three PL games on Sunday and not one of them is a throwaway. Man Utd vs Liverpool is a straight top-4 shootout – three points separate them and whoever loses faces a nervy run-in. Villa vs Spurs at 18:00 is the most loaded fixture of the weekend: Spurs are 18th, W1 from their last 10, and a defeat could confirm their drop. Then there is Bournemouth vs Palace to open proceedings – Bournemouth are unbeaten in 10 and the model has them as slight favourites at 48.9%.

Here are the model-backed selections for GW36.

Fixture	Pick	Model Probability	Notes
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (13:00)	Bournemouth win or draw	73.2%	Bournemouth unbeaten in 10. BTTS 63.3%. Model: Bournemouth 48.9% to win.
Manchester United vs Liverpool (14:30)	Over 2.5 goals + BTTS	O2.5: 60.1% / BTTS: 61.7%	Top-4 shootout. Darren England refs (4.48 YC/g). Both sides project to score.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur (18:00)	Villa win + Spurs Fouls 2+	Villa win: 50.7%	Spurs project 12.98 fouls/g. W1 D2 L7 last 10. Relegation on the line.

Gameweek 33 – 18-22 April 2026

GW31 Sunday. Four games – including the one everybody is watching. Arsenal lead Man City by 6 points. A win for City makes it 3. A win for Arsenal effectively ends it. The title race comes down to this afternoon.

Saturday 18 April

GW32. Five fixtures confirmed so far. Arsenal lead the title race by 6 points with Man City to come this weekend – pressure is mounting. At the bottom, Wolves and Burnley are running out of road. A week of games that will define whether this season has a real title fight or a procession.

Brentford vs Fulham

A west London derby with genuine stakes. Brentford sit 7th (47pts) and are creating chances at a serious rate – 4th in the PL for big chances created (2.8/game) and scoring at 1.5 goals/game. Fulham are 12th (44pts), pass it well – 4th in the league for passes per game (471) – but their conversion is the issue: 16th for big chances created (1.7/game) and they struggle to make the ball count.

Brentford’s defence is mid-table (conceding 1.38/game, 10th) but Fulham’s attack rarely punishes. Fouls will be a feature – Fulham 7th for fouls conceded (10.7/game), Brentford 12th. Both sides foul at a similar rate, which keeps referee-influenced markets interesting.

Prediction: Brentford to win. The home side have better attacking quality on the data – more chances created, better conversion rate, and Fulham rarely blow teams away on the road.

Leeds vs Wolves

A relegation/survival scrap with massive implications. Leeds are 15th (36pts), Wolves 20th (17pts) – the gap is wide but Wolves are in freefall. The data makes grim reading for visitors: Wolves are the worst attacking side in the division (0.75 goals/game, 20th) with the fewest big chances created per game (1.2, 20th). They foul more than anyone – 1st in the PL for fouls committed at 13.0/game.

Leeds are not a prolific side (1.22 goals/game, 14th) but their defence has leaked against struggling opposition all season. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities – Leeds concede 1.53/game (15th) – but the quality gap is stark. Leeds at home should handle this.

Prediction: Leeds to win. Wolves away from home have nothing going forward and their foul-heavy approach will hand Leeds set-piece opportunities. Yellow card markets are worth a look given Wolves rank 1st for fouls all season.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth

One of the most entertaining fixtures in the GW on paper. Newcastle (13th, 42pts) are 5th for shots on target per game (4.7) but their goals output hasn’t matched the volume this season. Bournemouth (11th, 45pts) are genuinely excellent in attack – 4th for SOT (4.8/game), 8th for big chances created (2.4/game). They score 1.5 goals/game away from home too.

The concern for both sides is defence. Newcastle concede 1.47/game (14th), Bournemouth 1.53/game (15th). This has goals written all over it. Bournemouth also foul heavily (2nd in PL, 12.0/game) which will give Newcastle set-piece chances.

Prediction: Both teams to score, lean towards Newcastle on home advantage. Over 2.5 goals looks strong here – two leaky defences, two genuinely threatening attacks.

Spurs vs Brighton

Spurs are struggling (18th, 30pts) and the data explains why. They create chances at a low rate (14th for big chances created, 1.7/game) and their defence is the second worst in the division (conceding 1.59/game, 17th). Brighton are well-organised defensively – 5th for goals against (1.16/game) – and create more than Spurs in attack (11th for big chances, 2.1/game).

Brighton have the better numbers across every metric that matters here. Spurs are a foul-heavy side (4th in PL, 11.6/game) which will hand Brighton dead-ball opportunities.

Prediction: Brighton to win. They defend well away from home and Spurs have not been able to keep clean sheets this season. Value is in Brighton or Draw with a slight lean to the visitors on the underlying data.

Chelsea vs Man Utd

The standout fixture of the GW. Chelsea are 6th (48pts) and lead the league for big chances created (2.9/game, 1st) with a clinical attack (1.66 goals/game, 4th). Man Utd are 3rd (55pts) and absolutely relentless in front of goal – 1st in the PL for shots on target per game (5.8/game), 3rd for goals (1.78/game). Both teams have genuine defensive vulnerabilities: Chelsea concede 1.28/game (8th), Man Utd 1.41/game (12th).

Man Utd are one of the cleaner sides in the PL discipline-wise (19th for fouls, 9.8/game) while Chelsea sit 6th (10.9/game). The volume of shots from both teams points strongly to goals.

Prediction: Both teams to score. Man Utd have the best shot volume in the league and Chelsea create the most big chances – this is not a game that ends 0-0. For the result, Man Utd’s superior away record and league position gives them the slight edge, but Chelsea at home is always dangerous.

Sunday 19 April

Aston Villa vs Sunderland

Villa (4th, 55pts) are a solid mid-table attacking side – 9th for goals (1.34/game) and SOT (4.4/game). Their defence is decent too, 7th for goals conceded (1.19/game). Sunderland (9th, 46pts) have been one of the surprise packages this season. They are the 3rd best defensive side in the PL (1.12 GA/game) but their attack is limited – 17th for goals (1.03/game) and 18th for shots on target (3.2/game).

Sunderland park the bus, absorb pressure, and nick goals. Villa have the quality advantage in attack but will need to be patient. Villa are one of the cleaner sides in the PL (17th for fouls, 9.9/game) which suits open play rather than set-piece battles.

Prediction: Villa to win, but close. Sunderland’s defensive record is genuine – they will not be blown away. Under 2.5 goals with a Villa win scoreline of 1-0 or 2-0 is the shape of this game.

Everton vs Liverpool

The Merseyside derby. Everton (7th, 47pts) have been surprisingly solid this season – 5th for goals conceded (1.16/game) and they create at a reasonable rate (15th for big chances, 1.7/game). But Liverpool (5th, 52pts) are a significant step up. Liverpool are 5th for goals (1.62/game), 6th for big chances created (2.6/game), and their shot volume is strong (4.5 SOT/game, 7th).

Everton defend well at home but Liverpool’s quality on the break and from set pieces is a different proposition to most opposition they face. Both sides concede at a similar rate – Everton 1.16/game, Liverpool 1.31/game – which gives this game a BTTS flavour despite the defensive solidity.

Prediction: Liverpool to win. The quality gap is real. Everton will be competitive – derbies always are – but Liverpool’s attacking numbers are clearly superior. BTTS is live given Everton’s home form and Liverpool’s own defensive record.

Nottm Forest vs Burnley

Burnley (19th, 20pts) are almost certainly down. They are the worst defensive side in the league (conceding 1.97/game, 20th) and have the least threatening attack by shots on target (3.0/game, 20th). Forest (16th, 33pts) are not prolific either – 19th for goals (1.0/game) – but their shot volume is decent (4.0 SOT/game, 10th) and Burnley will give them space.

This is exactly the kind of game where Forest can get a confidence-boosting win. Burnley’s defensive record on the road is the worst in the division. Forest should find a way through even with their inconsistent finishing.

Prediction: Forest to win. Burnley’s defensive numbers are dire and they have little going forward to threaten. Forest at home should grind this out. Over 1.5 goals is likely given Burnley’s leaky defence even against a limited Forest attack.

Man City vs Arsenal

The game of the season. Arsenal are top (70pts) with Man City 2nd (64pts) – a 6-point gap. Win for City and it’s a title race. Win for Arsenal and it’s effectively over.

The data makes this as close as the table suggests. Man City are 1st for goals (2.03/game), 2nd for SOT (5.3/game), 2nd for big chances created (2.9/game) and 2nd for goals conceded (0.9/game). Arsenal are 2nd for goals (1.94/game), 3rd for SOT (4.9/game), 2nd for big chances created (2.8/game) – and have the best defensive record in the PL (0.75 GA/game, 1st).

Two top-tier teams. Arsenal concede less than anyone in England. Man City create more than almost anyone. Both defences have been outstanding all season. The numbers point to goals but not many – the defences are too good for a basketball match.

Prediction: The narrowest of margins – Man City to edge it at home. They have the slight quality advantage in attack and Arsenal will be under pressure to protect their lead which could open them up. But call it 55/45 at best. Under 2.5 goals is worth considering – two elite defences, high stakes, neither side will be reckless. Both teams to score is also live given the attacking quality on both sides.

Monday 20 April

Crystal Palace vs West Ham

Palace (14th, 42pts) are quietly building one of the best defensive records in the division – 3rd for goals against (1.16/game), level with Brighton and only Arsenal concede less. The problem is they do not score enough: 16th for goals (1.13/game) and 16th for shots on target (3.7/game). Palace create big chances at a decent rate (7th, 2.5/game) but do not convert them.

West Ham (17th, 32pts) are in serious trouble. They concede at the second worst rate in the PL (1.78/game, 18th) and their attack produces limited reward – 17th for SOT (3.5/game), 13th for big chances created (1.8/game). They are a foul-heavy side (5th in the PL, 11.0/game) which will give Palace set-piece opportunities.

Prediction: Palace to win. Their defensive solidity at home is real – 3rd best defensive record in the league. West Ham are leaky at the back and do not create enough to trouble a well-organised Palace side. Under 2.5 goals is worth considering given Palace’s defensive shape.

Gameweek 30 – 10-13 April 2026

GW30. Ten games. Title race still alive, relegation scrap absolutely feral at the bottom, and a Monday night fixture that has genuine top-four implications. Let’s get into it.

Friday 10 April

West Ham vs Wolves – 20:00

The only Friday night fixture and it’s a relegation six-pointer dressed up as a boring mid-table game. West Ham sit 18th on 29 points – D L W D L last five. Wolves are 20th on 17 points, D L W W D in their last five – three points from two games is their best recent run. West Ham average just 1.2 goals per game and generate only 10.1 shots – both bottom-three figures in the league. Wolves are even worse at 0.8 goals and 9.2 shots. Referee Jarred Gillett averages 20 fouls and 3.72 yellows. Compact, physical, low-quality football. Bet: Under 2.5 Goals. Check the West Ham vs Wolves H2H on Statz for live projections.

Saturday 11 April

Arsenal vs Bournemouth – 12:30

Arsenal lead the table on 70 points, form D W W W W – four wins on the spin coming in. They average 14.6 shots per game and generate 4.9 SOT. Bournemouth are 13th on 42 points, sitting on D D D D D for five straight draws. They are literally allergic to a result one way or the other. Arsenal rank 2nd in the league for shots and 2nd in the league overall – they will have too much here. Michael Oliver takes charge (22.39 fouls, 2.91 yellows – low card game expected). Bet: Arsenal to Win and Over 1.5 Arsenal Goals. Check the H2H page on Statz for full projections.

Burnley vs Brighton – 15:00

Burnley are 19th on 20 points – D L L D L last five. Four wins all season. They average the fewest shots in the league at 9.3 per game. Brighton are 10th on 43 points, form W W L W W – four wins from five, and they’ve found their groove. Danny Welbeck has 12 goals this season and will fancy himself here. Burnley concede 1.9 goals per game on average. This feels comfortable for Brighton. Thomas Bramall refereeing (21.72 fouls, 4.22 yellows). Bet: Brighton Win and Danny Welbeck Anytime Scorer.

Brentford vs Everton – 15:00

Brentford are 7th on 46 points – L W D D D last five, three draws in a row but hard to beat at home. Igor Thiago has 19 goals this season – second in the entire Premier League. Everton are 8th on 46 points, L W W L W last five – level on points and separated only by GD. This is as close as the table gets. Two sides level on points, both with something to play for in terms of the European places. Farai Hallam officiates (21.50 fouls, 3.94 yellows). Bet: BTTS – both sides have goals in them and are too evenly matched to back either way. See the Statz Bet Builder for player angles.

Liverpool vs Fulham – 17:30

Liverpool are 5th on 49 points, form W W L D L – two defeats and a draw in the last three is a slump by their standards. Hugo Ekitiké has 11 goals and is their main outlet. Fulham are 9th on 44 points, W W L D W last five – in good form themselves. They average 1.4 goals per game and 12.3 shots – respectable. Liverpool at home should still edge it but this isn’t a walkover. Anthony Taylor in charge (20.25 fouls, 4.25 yellows). Bet: Liverpool Win and BTTS – Fulham can always find a goal on the road.

Sunday 12 April

Forest vs Villa – 14:00

Forest are 16th on 32 points – L L D D W last five, a slight uptick. They average just 1.0 goals per game – worst attacking record in the top half. Villa are 4th on 54 points, D L L L W – three straight losses before last weekend’s win. They’ve been poor recently but will take confidence from stopping the rot. Villa have the quality to win this comfortably if they turn up; Forest at home have caused upsets before. Michael Salisbury refereeing (22.80 fouls, 4.60 yellows – could get chippy). Bet: Villa Win – class will tell, and Forest’s attack can’t hurt anyone right now.

Sunderland vs Spurs – 14:00

Sunderland are 11th on 43 points – L D W L W last five, solid enough at home. Spurs are 17th on 30 points, L L L D L – one point from their last five games. That is a catastrophic run. They average 1.3 goals per game and rank 11th for shots. A Sunderland side with genuine momentum against Spurs in freefall. Robert Jones officiating (20.67 fouls, 4.40 yellows). Bet: Sunderland to Win – back them at home against a Spurs side with no confidence at all.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle – 14:00

Palace are 14th on 39 points – L W L W D last five, inconsistent but capable at home. Newcastle are 12th on 42 points, L L W W L last five – back-to-back wins before last weekend’s defeat. Newcastle average 13.2 shots per game and 4.7 SOT – the better side on paper. Palace’s 1.1 goals per game average shows they can’t be trusted to create enough to win this. Bet: Newcastle Win – better team, better form, better attacking stats. Use the Statz H2H page for projections.

Chelsea vs Man City – 16:30

The pick of the weekend. Chelsea are 6th on 48 points – D L W L L last five, dodgy recent form. Man City are 2nd on 61 points, W W W D D last five – the form side coming in. City average 2.0 goals per game and Erling Haaland has 22 goals this season. Chelsea generate 15.3 shots per game but have a 10% clean sheet rate – they concede. BTTS has landed in 70% of Chelsea’s last 10. But City away have been formidable. Chris Kavanagh in charge (22.45 fouls, 3.91 yellows). Bet: Man City Win and Haaland Anytime Scorer – he has 22 goals and Chelsea can’t keep a clean sheet. Full H2H on Statz here.

Monday 13 April

Man Utd vs Leeds – 20:00

Man Utd are 3rd on 55 points – W W L W D last five, strong enough. They average 1.8 goals per game and generate 15.8 shots per game – most of any team in this gameweek. Leeds are 15th on 33 points, D L L D D last five – one win in 10 and a -11 goal difference. They concede 1.9 goals per game on the road. Man Utd at home, Paul Tierney refereeing (17.43 fouls, 3.86 yellows). Bet: Man Utd Win and Over 1.5 Goals – they’ll have too much. Check the H2H page on Statz ahead of kick-off.

All projections from Statz’s Premier League projections page. Build your own bet builder combinations at the Statz Bet Builder. Check the full Premier League standings and stats here.

Gameweek 29 – 20-22 March 2026

GW29. Nine games. The international break is over, the players are back, and most of them have had two weeks to think about how bad their form has been. Let’s get into it.

Friday 20 March

Bournemouth vs Man Utd – 20:00

Coming into this on D D D D W, Bournemouth are averaging just 1.5 goals per game this season – and they’re conceding at the same rate. Draws are basically their default mode. Man Utd meanwhile sit 3rd with 54 points, averaging 1.8 goals per game and generating 15.9 shots pg – the most prolific attack on this card. BTTS is 70% in United’s last 10. Goals expected here, even if Bournemouth’s recent run would have you questioning it. Bet: BTTS – or Man Utd Over 1.5 goals. Check the H2H page on Statz for live projections closer to KO.

Saturday 21 March

Brighton vs Liverpool – 12:30

Brighton are 12th but have won three of their last five – a decent return for a side that can’t quite make up their minds what they are. Liverpool are 5th on 49 points, but form reads W W W L D – they’ve dropped points in two of their last five and Hugo Ekitiké leads the line with 11 goals. The 12:30 KO post-international break rarely favours the away side. Bet: Brighton Double Chance.

Fulham vs Burnley – 15:00

Fulham are 11th with 41 points – a capable home side. Burnley are bottom three on 20 points, four wins all season. They ship 1.9 goals per game on the road. Fulham win and probably don’t need to break sweat. Bet: Fulham to Win.

Man City vs Crystal Palace – 15:00

Man City are 2nd with 61 points and Erling Haaland has 22 goals this season. Palace are 14th on 39 points, last five reads L W L W D. City average 2.0 goals per game, rank 2nd in the league for shots, and Palace are conceding 35 in 30 games. Haaland to score. Simple. Bet: Haaland Anytime Scorer.

Everton vs Chelsea – 17:30

The pick of Saturday’s card. Everton are 8th with 43 points but inconsistent – L L W W L last five. Chelsea are 6th on 48 points. The key number: Chelsea’s last 10 games have gone BTTS 70% and Over 2.5 goals 80% of the time. They generate 15.3 shots per game but can’t keep a clean sheet – just 10% rate. João Pedro has 14 goals; Cole Palmer will be looking to rediscover form after the break. Both sides can score. Bet: BTTS. Build a prop combo on the Statz Bet Builder.

Leeds vs Brentford – 20:00

Leeds are 15th on 32 points – D D L L D last five, no wins in five. Brentford are 7th on 45 points, form D L W D D. Igor Thiago leads their attack with 19 goals – second in the entire Premier League. Leeds have a -11 GD in 30 games. That’s not accidentally bad. Bet: Brentford Win and Igor Thiago Anytime Scorer.

Sunday 22 March

Newcastle vs Sunderland – 12:00

The Tyne-Wear derby is back. Newcastle are 9th with 42 points, form W L L W W – two wins on the spin coming in. Sunderland are 13th on 40 points, L L D W L last five. Newcastle at home in a derby with some recent momentum tips this their way. Bet: Newcastle to Win.

Spurs vs Nottingham Forest – 14:15

Spurs are 16th with 30 points. L L L L D – four straight defeats before a draw. That is a grim run for a club of their standing. Forest are 17th on 29 points – D L L D D last five. Two sides in freefall meeting each other. Neither is scoring freely. Bet: Under 2.5 Goals.

Aston Villa vs West Ham – 14:15

Villa are 4th with 51 points but W D L L L last five – they’ve fallen off hard and need this. West Ham are 18th with 29 points, D D L W D. West Ham scrap, but Villa at home with something to prove should edge it. Bet: Aston Villa to Win.

All stats sourced from the Statz Premier League hub. Use the PL Projections page for AI-powered team and player data as KO approaches – and build your accas with the Statz Bet Builder Tool.

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Gameweek 23

West Ham vs Sunderland betting tips

When: Saturday 24th January 2026, 12:30pm

Where to watch: TNT Sports

The market, as well as the Statz Model, has West Ham as favourite for this one. That feels like an over reaction to Hammers’ last gasp win at Spurs last weekend; let’s face it, it’s very hard to imagine this West Ham team winning back-to-back games.

Sunderland have been carrying more of a goal-threat in recent weeks – and the xG data supports this – with Enzo Le Fée leading the charge with 9 shots in his last 4 games.

I think Sunderland are primed for an upset here and the fans at the London Stadium are ready to turn on their team, so if The BlackCats can grab an early goal things could get sour very quickly.

Man City vs Wolves betting tips

When: Saturday 24th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

City are stuttering and stumbling their way through January (other than a 10-1 win in the FA Cup a few weeks ago!) and something will need to switch quickly, if they’re going to apply any kind of pressure to Arsenal in the title race.

Call me Crazy, but I fancy Wolves to get at least a point here. Not only are City sliding – Foden and Haaland’s output has fallen off a cliff – but Wolves are playing well (No,they are!). Mateus Mané has quietly burst onto the scene and is precisely the kind of player who can cause City – often exposed at the back – massive problems.

Mane’s recent numbers are brilliant; he shoots, he draws fouls, he dribbles, he tackles and most of all he excites, all whilst playing with a composure and freedom one wouldn’t expect from an 18 year old playing in his first dozen Premier League games. Let’s put our money where our mouth is.

Fulham vs Brighton betting tips

When: Saturday 24th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Real mid-table stuff, albeit you’d think both of these teams will finish a few places higher than where they currently lie.

Fulham – who have dealt well with the absences of both Iwobi and Bassey, who are both key players – are extremely reliant on Wilson and Jimenez for attacking output, as evidenced by the table below

Curiously, Fulham don’t get Fouled. Which is annoying, as bet365 have some extremely juicy prices in the To Be Fouled market, with Berge, Robinson and Castagne all catching the eye. Maybe Brighton are the right opposition here, as their recent Fouls in Away matches read 15-15-18-13-15. Let’s have a dip at the Treble.

Burnley vs Spurs betting tips

When: Saturday 24th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

It would be typical Tottenham to follow up a dominant midweek Champions League win against Dortmund, with a loss at Turf Moor when they travel to Burnley on Saturday.

Burnley have found a couple of Tackle Monsters in the last 5 games, with Florentino Luis and Josh Laurent putting up some huge numbers. It’s worth scouting for Bookmakers that offer Player Tackles markets – at last check this was Bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral.

The Statz Player Props section like Broja To Be Fouled and with Romero (avg 1.63 fouls per game) patrolling the Albanian front-man, it doesn’t take a huge leap to see him being hauled down a couple of times.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool betting tips

When: Saturday 24th January 2026, 17:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

First, they were too open and they kept conceding. Now, they’re too cautious and they keep Drawing. Whichever way you draw it up, it’s not been a memorable title defence for Arne Slot’s Liverpool and it’s hard to know if getting Mo Salah back increases their chances of picking up 3 points on the road to Bournemouth.

The Statz Model can smell the action, projecting 3.14 goals – the highest of any Premier League match this weekend. Florian Wirtz has found his feet, his shooting socks and his goalscoring boots and I’m keen on backing him through the 2nd half of the season and expect his performances to keep getting better – he’s genuinely class. I’ll be on his Shots on Target here, which look like good value given he’s starting to look more like the player we saw at Leverkusen.

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Gameweek 22

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Manchester United vs Manchester City betting tips

When: Saturday 15th January 2026, 12:30pm

Where to watch: TNT Sports

The weekend gets going with the early kick-off derby, which is rarely a good thing for anyone involved -least of all a Manchester United side that still looks like it’s being held together by Bruno Fernandes, the much discussed potential of Mainoo and the faint hope that Michael Carrick and his hotly debated backroom staff will get it right straight away.

Statz has Manchester City clear favourites here and now they’ve added Semenyo to their list of attacking options, they look to have all bases covered. That said, Dias and Gvardial are big misses and City have drawn their last three Premier League games, so nothing is guaranteed at Old Trafford on Saturday/

The model has BTTS landing 64% of the time and a total goals projection north of 3.2, which feels about right given United’s ability to score without ever really convincing, and City’s habit of conceding the occasional “how has that happened?” goal before resuming normal service.

Rather than getting too clever with the match odds, this feels like a player props game.

City’s shot volume is strong, and if United spend long spells without the ball (very much on the cards), we should see plenty of defensive work from the hosts. That brings United fouls and cards into play, particularly with Martinez and Ugarte unlikely to be stand-offish.

Chelsea vs Brentford betting tips

When: Saturday 15th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Chelsea’s week has been… eventful. A new man-age-r, a fresh set of buzzwords, and about 72 hours of everyone pretending this squad suddenly makes perfect sense. Whether it works long-term is a discussion for another day – for now, the market has landed on Chelsea as favourites and the projections broadly agree.

Statz has Chelsea doing most of the work here: more shots, more corners, more sustained possession and we’re projecting over 3 goals. All fair, but don’t write off Brentford here, they’re having a decent season and with Thiago firing they are very capable of at least a point here.

If Chelsea play anything like Rosenoir’s Strasbourg side – which given his spiel about identity, is very likely – then the ball has to go through midfield. Repeatedly. Safely. Often sideways.

Which brings us neatly to passes.

This is a very friendly game script for Moisés Caicedo. New manager or not, he’s the constant: first outlet, pressure valve, and the one player you don’t want freelancing while patterns are still being learned. Under Rosenior it’s the DM’s who rack up the passes, and I’d advise taking anything around the 65-70 passes line as a good bet. IF Enzo is part of the double-pivot, back him too.

If the books are still pricing players off season averages rather than a redefined role, that’s where the edge is.

Leeds vs Fulham betting tips

When: Saturday 15th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

This is one of those fixtures where the form line in the graphic does most of the talking. Leeds have been treading water for weeks, while Fulham turn up in quietly excellent shape, winning games without anyone really making a fuss about it.

Statz still makes Leeds United slight favourites at Elland Road, but it’s a cautious vote of confidence rather than a ringing endorsement. Fulham’s numbers are competitive across the board, and the away win probability is chunky enough to make you pause before blindly trusting the home side.

The projections point towards goals at both ends – BTTS north of 58% and total goals just shy of three – which fits neatly with how both sides are playing. Leeds are aggressive, emotional, and occasionally chaotic; Fulham are far happier letting games come to them and picking moments.

Fulham are projected for more fouls and more cards, which makes sense given the likely pattern: Leeds pushing, Fulham resisting, breaking play up and slowing things down when needed. If Leeds start fast (they usually do), Fulham’s midfield and full-backs could be busy in the “dark arts” department. Keep an eye on Castagne and Berge To Be Fouled – they always go off a big price and are always involved in plenty of Duels

Liverpool vs Burnley betting tips

When: Saturday 15th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

This feels like one of those fixtures where Liverpool are given a very polite opportunity to remind everyone what they’re supposed to be. Home crowd, obliging opposition, and a Burnley side arriving with a form line that doesn’t exactly scream resistance.

Statz is pretty emphatic: Liverpool win this nearly three times out of four, with a projected goal total north of 3.4. The gap in shots is even more aggressive, this is Liverpool doing most of the attacking, most of the pressing, and most of the box invading.

And that’s where the interest really lies.

Burnley’s projected output is modest at best. They’re expected to defend for long spells, concede territory, and generally spend the afternoon trying to keep the damage manageable. That usually means Liverpool forwards get chances – plural – and if there’s ever a spot for a statement performance, it’s here.

Enter Hugo Ekitike.

This looks like a volume game for Liverpool’s front line. The shot numbers are strong, shots on target are healthy, and Burnley’s defensive profile suggests they’ll allow attempts from central areas rather than pushing everything wide. If Ekitike gets the start, this is about as friendly a setup as you’ll find for him to announce himself properly.

Props we like: Broja To Be Fouled with PP/Skybet/Betfair – we project a decent edge here, and he’s been involved since becoming a regular starter.

Spurs vs West Ham betting tips

When: Saturday 15th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Man, does Thomas Frank need to win this one. Spurs have barely improved from last season’s disastrous league campaign, and they’ve not exactly been easy on the eye, either. Conor Gallagher should make his debut, but fans are split on whether he’s the answer or an example of the problem. Dom Solanke has been spotted in training (!), which is much needed given Richarlison (hamstring) is now out for the next few months.

West Ham have got problems of their own. Injuries to Mavraponas and Fernandes don’t help, but to make things worse, Callum Wilson is in the midst of having his contract terminated, and fallen-star Lucas Pacqueta has had enough and wants to go home.

Call me crazy, but I fancy Randal Kolo Muani to have a day out against the Hammers. Muani has yet to score in the Premier League, and his only goals for Spurs to date came when bagging a brace away at PSG – we will take that as a good sign. Time for Spurs to turn a corner and Muani to show his class.

Sunderland vs Crystal Palace betting tips

When: Saturday 15th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Onto Sunderland v Palace and a quick look at the recent form of each team sends shivers down the side, with not a single win in their respective last 5 games. Palace will be without club legend Marc Guehi who has been unceremoniously captured by Manchester City – who just need him more.

I’ve fallen into the trap of thinking Palace are quite good, but they have not won in their last 9 games and were dumped out the FA Cup by Mansfield last weekend. With Sunderland also tailing off after a strong start, this has all the makings of a 1-1 draw – which is exactly what the Statz Model projects. With low projections for Goals, Shots and Corners, it’s a nice opportunity to reintroduce one of my favourite features, which is to anoint this fixture as Most Likely to be screened last on MOTD.

Bring on a 6 goal thriller!

Forest vs Arsenal Palace betting tips

When: Saturday 15th January 2026, 17:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

It’s very difficult to deny that Arsenal are currently the best team in the country, and probably in Europe too – they’re currently favourites for the Champions League (for crying out loud). But as they say, The Masters doesnt even start until the back 9 on Sunday (there’s definitely a joke about Amen CORNERS somewhere), and Arsenal now have to prove that they are closers.

A windy evening away at Forest brings no guarantee of 3 points, and Sean Dyche will have many men behind the ball and would bit your hand off for a Draw.

Maybe all the negative media around Gyokeres has inflated his price, but our Model sees value in Shots on Target, I like 1+ and 2+ here, despite the recent form:

Gameweek 21

Arsenal vs Liverpool betting tips

When: Thursday 8th January 2026, 20:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

With Manchester City picking up only two points from their last two games, Arsenal are suddenly 1.2 for the Premier League title and clear favourites for tonight’s clash against Liverpool.

The Gunner have not put a foot wrong since their late defeat at Villa, and with injury concerns easing, they look well set to put Liverpool – who’s recent games include draw’s against Fulham and Leeds – to the sword.

With Arsenal strong favourites – and therefore assumed to go ahead at some point – it might be worth backing Liverpool Shots, specifically Gakpo, who should fill in up-front for the Red Men.

Gakpo registered 5 Shots last time out against Fulham, and as per the graph below from Statz.ai – where the Line is set to 2+ – he regularly hits 3,4 or even 5 shots. The prices have come in slightly, but there’s still some nice value here with bet365

West Ham vs Nottingham Forest betting tips

When: Tuesday 6th January 2026, 20:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

The Premier League action continues to come thick and fast with another round of midweek games and it’s the Nuno Espirito Santo’s derby – otherwise known as West Ham v Forest – which is the sole offering on Tuesday night.

This has all the makings of a relegation scrap, principally because it’s 17th v 18th, but also because we’re projecting low attacking returns and plenty of fouls, tackles and well, scrap.

In the Player Props streets, there’s some generous prices on West Ham Player Passes and Fernandes and Bowen catch the eye. This probably needs a favourable game script to hit the higher lines, i.e. we want West Ham to be playing from behind, but both the base lines feel very achievable, although keep an eye on team news, you don’t want to back Bowen if he’s playing up-front.

Bournemouth vs Spurs betting tips

When: Wednesday 7th January 2026, 19:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Wednesday night might be a get right spot for Bournemouth, who have had a pretty miserable Christmas, when Thomas the Frank Engine rolls into town with his hapless Spurs side in tow.

Bournemouth, without a win in their last ten games, are clear favourites here, which probably tells you all you need to know about what the market thinks of Tottenham right now (even though they welcome back star-signing Xavi Simons from suspension).

Let’s focus instead on Player Props. We like Archie Gray shots, Ben Davies fouls, Pedro Porro fouls and if you can get your head around Spurs scoring, then also consider Bergvall to Assist at a big price.

Brentford vs Sunderland betting tips

When: Wednesday 7th January 2026, 19:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Brentford are on a roll, picking up 11 points from a possible 15 in their last five games and will hope to continue their good form when they host Sunderland on Wednesday night. The Statz Model likes the Bees in this match-up and is slightly ahead of market on their chances of picking up all three points.

It’s well documented that Sunderland have been hardest hit by AFCON absentees and they’ll continue to miss key players here, whilst having to contend with Igor Thiago off the back of a hat-trick against Everton at the weekend.

Everton vs Wolves betting tips

When: Wednesday 7th January 2026, 19:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

In our last preview of Wolves we said they were capable of better and that Mane and Arias would be the one’s to deliver attacking returns, and hey presto, we saw a Wolves win and goals for both Mane and Arias.

I’ll continue to look for spots to back both of these attacking talents, though there’s not a lot of value there tonight – and of course, there’s a chance I’m getting carried away with the Wolves goal threat.

There’s a couple of bets that the Statz Player Props model likes, specifically Iroegbunam to be Booked – he’s a fouls/tackles machine – and Tarkowski Fouls Drawn, which is particularly appealing against a Wolves side who average a league-high, 14.1 fouls per game.

Fulham vs Chelsea betting tips

When: Wednesday 7th January 2026, 19:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

This should be a lively London derby, with Fulham in decent form and Chelsea hoping for the infamous new manager bounce with Liam Rosenoir in charge for his first game.

Raul Jimenez and Harry Wilson have been combining to devastating effect, and Wilson’s goal against Liverpool is a sharp reminder of the quality of this pair.

Both of these sides showed character in rescuing late points at the weekend, but Chelsea in particular will be striving for all 3 points to avoid dropping out of the race for 4th place.

Including Andersen and Fernandez in your Bet Builders makes sense given their recent foul history and laddering them up to 3 Fouls, at bigger prices is worth considering.

Man City vs Brighton betting tips

When: Wednesday 7th January 2026, 19:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

The last ten minutes of City v Chelsea may well prove to be very decisive in the title race. Not only did City concede a late equaliser, but they also saw Gvardiol and Dias hobble off with fairly serious looking injuries. All of a sudden City look short at the back, but need to get back to winning ways against Brighton, to keep up the pressure on Arsenal.

For the last few weeks we’ve been keen on Ayari Shots and the price looks right to back him again at the Etihad this evening. See his recent Shot form below. This makes for an interesting Ladder play given City’s defensive concerns, especially if Brighton are playing from behind.

Burnley vs Manchester United betting tips

When: Wednesday 7th January 2026, 20:15pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

The King is dead. Long live the King. And just like that, after 14 months, Amorim has gone. Whether he will be remembered for hiding in the dugout at Grimsby or repeatedly playing a back-7, I’m not sure, but it feels like a long-time invested to suddenly get rid.

In classic United fashion, they’ve gone through the rollerdex of former SAF players and come up with Darren Fletcher to take charge on an interim basis, holding the fort for one of Carrick, Ole or a consortium of Jesper Blomquist, Ronnie Johnson and David May to take the role permanently.

Burnley should fancy their chances here, but rather than put our money on them to win, we’ll look at the Team Total Shots market, where they are averaging 13.2 shots in their last 5 home games, with recent totals of 15-16-16.

You can play this how you like, but all of the below make appeal, especially if United score early or go ahead by 2 or 3, both of which are possible.

For £500 of Free Bets and Offers, check out our UK’s Best Betting Sites page

Newcastle vs Leeds betting tips

When: Wednesday 7th January 2026, 20:15pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Not one for the feint-hearted on a freezing cold Tuesday night in Newcastle.

Leeds are unbeaten in their last 7 and have started playing 3 at the back, which looks very much like a move designed to ‘stay in the league’, and Farke’s team have proven to be extremely resilient in recent times.

As regularly documented, Newcastle are a force to be reckoned with at St James Park, and it’s certainly their Home form which has seen them climb back into the top half after a slow start to the season.

Surprisingly, both of these sides have had low foul counts in recent weeks, but Leeds games in particular have seen a lot of tackles, so use the Statz Tackle Projections to inform your Bet Builder picks, with expected lineups toggled on.

****

Gameweek 20

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest betting tips

When: Saturday 3rd January 2026, 12:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Both Villa and Forest will want to bounce back from their midweek defeats in an intriguing Saturday lunchtime kick-off. Forest are missing the goals Chris Wood was banging in last season, and haven’t seen the creative spark from Morgan Gibbs-White that made him such a transfer target in the Summer.

Villa are doing just fine, albeit a lot of critics will point to how much they’ve outperformed xG in recent weeks and that ‘regression’ was coming – I’m not sure the loss to Arsenal particularly proves that point. I expect them to get back on track here and win comfortably.

Our model projects a lot of tackles here, with full-backs Maatsen, Williams and Cash all candidates for your Bet Builders.

Brighton vs Burnley betting tips

When: Saturday 3rd January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

The form book looks bleak for both Brighton and Burnely, with neither side registering a win in their last six Premier League games. Brighton have not looked like mounting a challenge for the European spots and were held to a 2-2 drawn by West Ham last time out.

Burnley have slightly upped their attacking output over the Christmas period, with recent Shots reading 15-16-4-16 , but on closer inspection a lot of those shots have been from outside the box and they’ve not managed to find the goalscorer teams typically need to stay in the league.

We like the look of Ayari Shots, with Brighton expected to do most of the attacking, this looks like a nice opportunity for the Swede, some nice prices with Paddy Power for Ayari to take 3, 4 and 5 Shots. He had 4 vs Arsenal and 5 vs Sunderland and the Statz Projections Model projects him for the most shots in the Brighton squad.

Wolves vs West Ham betting tips

When: Saturday 3rd January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Quite hard to get excited about this one. Even our Model is predicting the stalest of stalemates and can’t split these relegation candidates. Every time I watch Wolves play, I think they’re not that bad – they popped it around at Old Trafford in mid-week and shaded United on xG – and yet here they are looking me dead in the eye with 3 points from 19 games. Still, I like the look of Arias and Mane for basically all prop markets, and they both look 1. like decent players and 2. very capable of hitting decent attacking returns in the second-half of the season.

West Ham are arguably a worse side and having lost Rice and Kudus in recent years, they’re overly reliant on Bowen and only Wolves have conceded more this season. We’re projecting 38 tackles – which is very high – so that might be the area to attack for Bet Builders on bet365 and Unibet who offer markets on Player Tackles.

Bournemouth vs Arsenal betting tips

When: Saturday 3rd January 2026, 17:30pm

Where to watch: n/a

Unsurprisingly, the Statz Projections point to a comfortable Arsenal win, when they travel to Bournemouth in the 5.30pm kick off. It could be interpreted that City have delayed the signing of Antoine Semenyo so that he has the opportunity to inflict some pain on title rivals, Arsenal – who will want Declan Rice (knee) back as soon as possible.

One angle to target is Zubimendi Player Shots, with the Spaniard getting forward more in recent weeks – he’s had 6 shots his last 3 starts and a ladder looks appealing.

Leeds vs Manchester United betting tips

When: Sunday 4th January 2026, 12:30pm

Where to watch: TNT Sports

Everton vs Brentford betting tips

When: Sunday 4th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Newcastle vs Crystal Palace betting tips

When: Sunday 4th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Fulham vs Liverpool betting tips

When: Sunday 4th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Spurs vs Sunderland betting tips

When: Sunday 4th January 2026, 15:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Man City vs Chelsea betting tips

When: Sunday 4th January 2026, 17:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

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Gameweek 19

Liverpool vs Leeds betting tips

When: Thursday 1st January 2026, 17:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

This game has a pretty high Goals projection although that’s no great surprise given that Daniel Calvert-Lewin will be on the pitch. Both of these sides are unbeaten in their last 5 and making subtle progress at respective ends of the table.

It’s a small sample size, but their have been some encouraging signs for the Red Men lately; Wirtz has sprung to life, Kerkez is looking more at home and even Frimpong put in a serviceable performance against Wolves – if Frimpong starts he’s very live for Goal Involvements.

It’s noticeable that Wirtz has been way more involved in the last few games with 90 & 84 passes in his last two games. Keep an eye on formation, but his lines below are worth a look.

Crystal Palace vs Fulham betting tips

When: Thursday 1st January 2026, 17:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Not a lot to separate these two teams, who sit 11th and 12th and both on 26 points, but a closer look shows us that Palace and Fulham look to be going in different directions.

Palace are stuttering and stammering their way to the end of 2025, Mateta hasn’t scored in 7 and a couple of key absences have laid bare the lack of depth in their squad.

Fulham have won their last 3 and have found attacking impetus through Wilson and Jimenez who are both in fine form.

In the player betting markets, our model likes Justin Devenny, who projects well for Shots on Target and is worth a go for 1+ and 2+ with bet365.

Sunderland vs Man City betting tips

When: Thursday 1st January 2026, 20:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Sunderland have been the surprise package of 2025 and they boast wins agains Chelsea and Newcastle and draws against Liverpool and Arsenal in their last 10 games – the Gunners will be hoping the Black Cats can repeat the dose against City on New Years Day.

We’re focusing on two of City’s attacking midfield threats in the SOT market. Cherki and Foden have been lighting it up in recent weeks and have had 20 shots (11 on target) between them in their last 5.

Brentford vs Spurs betting tips

When: Thursday 1st January 2026, 20:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

The Thomas Frank derby. By virtue of Sky showing every game this week, this is (miraculously) a televised event.

This doesn’t jump off the page as a particularly intense affair, and maybe that’s why there are some generous prices on Player Fouls on bet365.

We like this Bet Builder of Henry, Schade and Thiago at 2.3 with bet365.

Burnley vs Newcastle betting tips

When: Tuesday 30th December, 19:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

A question we often find ourselves asking in these pages is…are Newcastle good? When they’re on, they’re horrible to play against, love the dark arts and have enough quality in Gordon, Bruno, Barnes and co. to cause the best teams problems. But they haven’t been at it this season, certainly not away from home and they’ll need a win here against relegation-fodder, Burnley, to propel themselves towards the top-half and surely, the top-six.

We’d assume Anthony Gordon is on the plane to the World Cup in the Summer, but he’s had a quiet season – only 4 goal involvements in 18 games – and will want to start making meaningful contributions sooner rather than later. As per below, he’s missed 3 Big Chances in the last 5 games and hit the post twice, so maybe he’s due.

We can’t resist backing Florentino Luis to be Fouled ladder, in what looks to be an ideal match-up. He was fouled twice in 27 mins on the field last time out and should fill in for the injured Josh Cullen.

Chelsea vs Bournemouth betting tips

When: Tuesday 30th December, 19:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Neither side is ending 2025 in hot form and even though the Statz Model clearly favours Chelsea here, they’ve been running in treacle lately, with only one win (at home to Everton) in their last six Premier League games.

Bournemouth – winless in their last 9 – have got problems of their own, and to add to their woes it looks inevitable that Antoine Semenyo – clearly their chief attacking threat with 11 SOT in the last 5 games – will be heading out the door, though he should play his last game for the Cherries at Stamford Bridge.

*Image is Last 5 Premier League matches

Nottingham Forest vs Everton betting tips

When: Tuesday 30th December, 19:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

The Statz Model projects a low-scoring, tight affair at the City Ground, with Forest still hovering dangerously close to the relegation zone and Everton playing out a mid-table simulation season from the early-2000’s under David Moyes; just doing enough to be considered stiff opposition, without ever really threatening much more than a mid-table finish.

Elliot Anderson and Igor Jesus both have a 100% Hit Rate for Fouls Committed and Fouls Drawn in their last 5 and accordingly they should be central to any Bet Builders.

West Ham vs Brighton betting tips

When: Tuesday 30th December, 19:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Is it me, or are there no form teams in the Premier League right now. Yet another set of teams without a win between them in their last 5. You get the feeling that Brighton are better than that, but West Ham certainly aren’t.

As evidence of West Ham’s struggles, midfield duo Mateus Fernandes and Magassa have been extremely busy lately, with 50+ Tackles and Interceptions between them in their last 5.

One angle in here, is Areola Saves, and looking at 4+, 5+ and 6+ given Brighton will do all of the attacking and Areloa, as well as racking up plenty of saves in his last outings, also boasts a recent 10 save game.

Arsenal vs Aston Villa betting tips

When: Tuesday 30th December, 20:15pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Now then, two teams in form. Albeit, I would describe both as efficient rather than dominant in recent matches, but however you describe it, they’ve been winning football games regularly.

Villa have looked reliant on Morgan Rogers wonder strikes, but it was (the slightly forgotten man) Ollie Watkins who bagged a brace to ensure a late victory against Chelsea a few days ago. But it’s actually Viktor Gyokeres who the Statz Model likes for a Shot on Target, showing a significant edge on the market price.

Arsenal remain favourites for the title and our Projected League table sees them fighting off the challenge from City and streaking clear of Villa, though this is obviously a big game in the title race.
Check out our Odds Integrated Projected League Tables HERE

Manchester United vs Wolves betting tips

When: Tuesday 30th December, 20:15pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

This blog has been pretty consistently full of praise for this latest version of Ruben Amroin’s Manchester United and they continue to impress, or at the very least are much easier on the eye than they were at the start of the campaign.

They will miss Bruno and it looks as though Matheus Cunha will carry the attacking threat on his shoulders. The Brazilian has looked in fine form lately – 28 shots in his last 5 games – and will doubtless be keen to impress against his former employers, Wolves.

If he plays – and he is a proper injury doubt – Mount is a smash in the Player Passes market, regardless of where he’s deployed.

Gameweek 18

Manchester United vs Newcastle betting tips

When: Friday 26th December, 20:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

News that Bruno Fernandes will miss game time has probably hit FPL managers harder than it has Manchester United fans. There’s no denying the hole it will leave, given the Portuguese midfielder’s importance in all facets of their play, and Amorin admitted as much, when reacting to Bruno’s injury, saying his team will ‘suffer’ over this period.

Perhaps the absence of Fernandes is the spark Newcastle need to ignite their away form, given they have won only 1 of their 8 games on the road. The Magpies have injury problems at the back, they have cover at centre-half, but Miley will likely fill in as a make-shift right-back.

The Statz Model projects plenty of Goals, so it might be worth looking at over 3.5, 4.5 and 5.5 on the basis we could be in for a Boxing Day goals-fest – we’re even showing a slight edge vs bet365 on over 2.5 goals.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City betting tips

When: Saturday 27th December, 12:30pm

Where to watch: TNT Sports

The City train is rolling. And with Arsenal showing few signs of slowing down themselves, Pep’s boys will need to the pedal to the metal. With Dyche at the helm, we all fall into the trap of assuming everything will be roughly fine and they will be defensively solid blah blah, but as it stands, Forest are very much in a relegation battle.

There look to be some gettable Player Pass lines for Bernardo Silva, Nico Gonzalez and Phil Foden with bet365, assuming City will have significant possession, we will take a closer look with a view to including in our Telegram group.

Given his recent form, we’ll be looking for the optimal way to get Phil Foden onside, and it might be best to keep it simple and ladder his Shots on Target, which look nicely priced.

Arsenal vs Brighton betting tips

When: Saturday 27th December, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

We’re projecting a comfortable Arsenal win, which shows both how strong they’ve been this year, but also that Brighton aren’t quite the kryptonite to big-teams that they were 2-3 years ago.

As ever, we’ll look at Arsenal defenders in the Shots and Goals markets, and also Rice in the Goals/Assists markets given his more advanced role and strong form – plus he had his tyres pumped by Wayne Rooney on his podcast, so we need to factor that in.

We’re projecting 80% liklihood for over 1.5 goals, but don’t get carried way here as Arsenal’s defence has been miserly all year and they’ve not looked as likely notch up 2/3/4 goals in recent weeks.

Brentford vs Bournemouth betting tips

When: Saturday 27th December, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

A very mid-table clash between two quite different teams. Bournemouth open, expansive, leaky, but capable of causing any opposition serious problems and Brentford more rigid, structured and more likely to frustrate rather than open up their opponents.

Both Semenyo and Thiago feature in the top 5 of the Shots on Target list for the season and our pivotal to their respective side’s chances of success.

Burnley vs Everton betting tips

When: Saturday 27th December, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Burley have not won in their last eight Premier League games and will need to improve to get anything against Everton, who will be looking to bounce back after tough tests against Chelsea and Arsenal.

In the player prop markets, keep a price-sensitive eye on Carlos Alcarez – he’s live for basically everything – given he’s averaging 1.8 shots per game, 1.2 fouls per game, 1 fouls drawn per game in his last 5 outings.

The other angle in here might be Kyle Walker fouls, given he’s up against former England team-mate Jack Grealish. Full-backs matching up with Grealish are typically priced accordingly and Walker is no different, but it’s worth noting Walker’s form (below) which includes regular 2+ and the odd 3+ in his last ten games…. nobody will be shocked to learn Grealish has drawn the most fouls this season.

Liverpool vs Wolves betting tips

When: Saturday 27th December, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Liverpool will need Wirtz and Ekitike to step-up to the plate with news that Isak is now out for several months, and with Salah representing AFCON & Szoboslai serving a suspension, the time is now for the new signings to deliver.

Wolves are (maybe) not as bad as their points total would suggest, but they are seriously struggling and their Boxing Day trip to Anfield will fill them with the opposite of Christmas cheer.

It’s of very little – possibly no – consolation, that Wolves are top of one table… Fouls Committed. They’re also 3rd for tackles, so it’s worth tracking team news and finding the best value for Player Fouls and Tackles, as you’d expect them to be chasing red shirts all afternoon.

West Ham vs Fulham betting tips

When: Saturday 27th December, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Hello and Welcome to your weekly serving of Most Likely to be shown last on Match of the Day. This is more due to West Ham, than Fulham, but with the exception of some sublime stuff from Harry Wilson, neither side has been delivering much in the way of exciting in recent times.

Chelsea vs Aston Villa betting tips

When: Saturday 27th December, 17:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Chelsea were title contenders, then Caicedo got sent-off agaisnt Arsenal, and now they’re not. Villa were in the bottom half and then Morgan Rogers did some stuff (in most games) and now they’re title contenders.

The bet we probably like the most here is Chelsea passes, especially given how passive Villa were against United last week and – helpfully – Chelsea’s game against Newcastle was a bit of a mess, at least in terms of possession. All of which means that Caicedo looks good in the Player Passes market.

Sunderland vs Leeds betting tips

When: Sunday 28th December, 14:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

For those of us of a certain age, this just feels like it should be a Premier League fixture. It’s also perfect for stereotypes about teams with history, passionate fan-bases, great atmosphere’s etc – which is all part of what the Prem should be about.

On top of all of that ‘noise’ I think we’re looking at two pretty decent promoted sides here, and whilst Leeds are more likely to get dragged into the bottom three than Sunderland, this should be a very close contest, and our Model makes Leeds slight favourites. Sunderland just need to get through this Xmas period – they’ve got more than most missing at AFCON – and everyone is waiting for them to come unstuck after such a fast start.

Calvert-Lewin is on a bit of a tear and will want to continue his streak of scoring from exactly 7 yards out, meanwhile Sunderland’s biggest goal threat in recent times has been Dan Ballard.

Crystal Palace vs Spurs betting tips

When: Sunday 28th December, 16:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Crystal Palace rank as our Model’s best bet of the weekend to beat Spurs, which comes as no surprise given the recent form of Thomas Frank’s rabble.

Palace will need to overcome a mini-blip of their own and they’re the first this season (although won’t be the last) to take shots at the Fixture scheduling which, perhaps unsurprisingly, gave zero consideration to teams playing in whatever European plate Palace are competing in.

We’ll keep a close eye on Fouls here, as there looks to be some value in the Fouls Committed and To Be Fouled markets on bet365 – it always helps when regular players are out, so whoever replaces Munoz, Romero, Simons, Richards, is worth looking at.

—

Gameweek 17

Newcastle vs Chelsea betting tips

When: Saturday 20th December, 12:30pm

Where to watch: TNT Sports

Chelsea have been difficult to read lately and comments from Enzo Maresca haven’t helped the feeling that they’re not quite at the races. Interestingly, the Statz Model has Newcastle coming out on top in this one.

Our model projects plenty of fouls, which is hardly surprising with a cast that includes the likes of Caicedo, Joelinton, Bruno G and Cucarella. Indeed, we show a big edge on Joelinton to be booked at 4.33 with bet365.

One player props betting angle that looks like good value is Malick Thiaw‘s Player Passes with bet365. He’s Newcastle’s leading passer and we’d recommend backing him for 55+ and 59+ at odds of 2.62 and 4.0 respecitively.

Bournemouth vs Burnley betting tips

When: Saturday 20th December, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

If anyone’s still in a Last Man Standing contest, they’ll be picking Bournemouth this week if they can. This looks to be an obvious Home win, despite The Cherries not winning in their last 5.

Burnley’s form does not make pretty reading and they’re yet to make any sort of mark on the league – to make matters worse, they’ve not got any Fantasy relevant players either.

Semenyo, Tavernier and co. will be licking their lips ahead of this one.

Brighton vs Sunderland betting tips

When: Saturday 20th December, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Our model (and the market) rates Brighton as decent favourites here, but Sunderland have made an inspired return to the Premier League and last week’s win against Newcastle was more evidence that they have the kind of togetherness that should keep them avoid the drop.

Statz project Brighton for 18 shots and keep an eye on ‘full-back’ Maxim De Cuyper who has been playing as a winger and should be considered for Shots, Shots on Target and Assists market.

Brighton are ideal for Fouls and Tackles markets, they are 3rd in the Premier League for avg. Fouls Committed per game and 4th for avg. Tackles per game – if in doubt, side with Mats Wieffer.

Man City vs West Ham betting tips

When: Saturday 20th December, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

This isn’t a drill Arsenal fans, City have you in their sights. Pep’s team are beginning to purr, with Haaland, Foden and Cherki are starting to look extremely danegrous week-in, week-out.

It’s hard to envisage anything other than a City win, indeed it’s been hard to envisage a West Ham win anytime soon, but at least the Hammers did start to show signs of life whilst throwing away a lead last weekend against Villa.

With Doku out, expect Cherki to show his class in December. He’s in play for 2+/3+ Fouls, Shots on Target and Goals/Assists – look for Bookies who are underestimating him or pricing him as though he’s still getting used to the Premier League… he’s ready to break out.

Wolves vs Brentford betting tips

When: Saturday 20th December, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Welcome to this week’s leading contender for game to be shown last on MOTD.

Wolves’ troubles are well documented, but it had genuinely passed me by that they are literally only on 2 points at after 16 games of the season.

Maybe, and it’s a big maybe, they can get their season started on Saturday against The Bees. Brentford already have an air of ‘survival’ about their general approach and even though it’s only December, you can hear Keith Andrews describing this as a real ‘6 pointer’.

Wolves don’t score, or shoot -they’re ranked last for both – but they do Foul – they’re ranked 1st for Fouls Committed. This would be an Opponent play, rather than a data play, but back Jordan Henderson to be fouled and enjoy watching Andre, J.Gomes, Larsen and Krejci do their thing.

Spurs vs Liverpool betting tips

When: Saturday 20th December, 17:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

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This looks like the ultimate bounce-back spot for Arne Slot’s Liverpool, as they travel to North London to face a Spurs team that look devoid of identify and ideas under Thomas Frank.

Turgid Tottenham sit 17th for Shots and Shots on Target and their attacking impotency is only matched by their defensive fragility, with Vicario often the chief offender. All that said, Liverpool have fluffed their lines repeatedly this season, so this should be a great watch, with a projected likelihood (77%) of over 1.5 goals.

When it comes to player markets, it’s worth taking a punt on Joe Gomez Assists if he starts at right-back, he’s got 2 in his last 3 Premier League starts and with no Salah, Liverpool Goal Involvements are more of an open book.

Everton vs Arsenal betting tips

When: Saturday 20th December, 20:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Are Arsenal stuttering and stumbling, I certainly hope not. Everton have made a strong start to the season and find themselves in 9th, but as well as losing Idrissa Gueye and NDiaye to AFCON, they’re also without unlikely talisman Dewsbury-Hall, so they’re up against it to get a result agains the league leaders.

An interesting/profitable approach this year has been to get Califiori and Timber onside for Shots and Shots on Target – there might be less noise around Arsenal set-pieces than at the start of the year, but it’s still ‘a thing’ and without a recognised striker (Gyokeres doesn’t count), the full-backs are certainly worth considering for the Shots market.

Leeds vs Crystal Palace betting tips

When: Saturday 20th December, 20:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Our model struggles to separate these two sides, which is slightly strange given Palace have won their last three away from home. Perhaps the Statz AI was enchanted by Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s post-game sofa session in the Sky Studio, where he spent 15 minutes shooting the breeze with de ladz, whilst the pundits took it in turns to tell DCL how good he is at jumping.

For Player Props, you could double up on foul merchants Kamada and Bogle to each make 1+ Foul, something they’ve both done in each of their last 5 games.

Back the double HERE with bet365 @1.82

Aston Villa vs Manchester United betting tips

When: Sunday 21st December, 20:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Are Villa good? They seem good. And they’re playing quite well. And they’ve got Morgan Rogers, who is better than Jude Bellingham, so they must be quite good. I guess we’ll find out in Sunday’s only Premier League offering, when the one and only Manchester United roll into town.

United haven’t kept a single clean sheet in their last 9 games, but they have carried much more of an attacking threat recently and had patches of looking genuinely dangerous against Wolves and in their 4-4 vs Bournemouth. They will lose Mbemumo to AFCON and when Sesko came on in said Bournemouth thriller, he moved like a PS2-era Pro Evo avatar with sprint jammed on: all arms pumping, zero subtlety, and somehow still not actually quick.

All that aside, you should Bet on Villa Player Passes, specifically Konsa (58.5) and Rogers (29.5), as we’d expect Villa to dominate possession and United will be happy to play on the counter.

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Gameweek 16

Chelsea vs Everton betting tips

When: Saturday 13th December, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Chelsea are expected to win comfortably here, but David Moyes has done exactly what you would expect, and has made Everton difficult to beat and very capable of causing an upset.

Our model projects plenty of fouls, with Barry, Fofana, Cucarella and Alcaraz all projecting strongly.

Chelsea will be hoping Cole Palmer’s injury concerns are behind him, but are still missing the suspended Moises Caicedo. Everton’s suspension worries are behind them, with Idrissa Gueye back in the fold after socking Micheal Keane a few weeks ago and will be relying on the likes of Grealish, Ndiaye and top-scorer Kieran Dewsbury-Hall to carry the attacking threat.

Liverpool vs Brighton betting tips

When: Saturday 13th December, 15:00pm

Where to watch: n/a

Liverpool have certainly been a talking point this year and it’s pretty hard to know what to expect when they host Brighton in one of two 3pm kick-off’s on Saturday.

Isak has yet to fire, Salah has let off like a firework and they’ve become very reliant on goal contributions from the ever-enthusiastic Dominik Szoboszlai.

Brighton have been up and down, but still sit in 8th, despite missing Mitoma for most of the season, Baleba being a shadow of the player we saw last year, and Danny Welbeck leading the line.

The model projects Goals and a Liverpool win, this writer sees Brighton causing Arne Slot’s side more problems.

Burnley vs Fulham betting tips

When: Saturday 13th December, 17:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Burnley come into this one on a six game losing streak, and it’s hard to see them breaking the cycle against fellow strugglers Fulham, who should have enough quality to get over the line in the 5.30pm kick-off.

Our model makes Harry Wilson a threat and the Welsh Wizard has really shown his quality in recent weeks, including an outside of the foot stunner last weekend against Palace.

Kyle Walker is suspended, but the former England star has not found the form of old this season and at the other end of the pitch Burnley are still searching for an attacking combination that offers even a shred of potency. This has got ‘last to be shown on MOTD’ written all over it.

Arsenal vs Wolves betting tips

When: Saturday 13th December, 20:00pm

Where to watch: TNT Sport

Most punters (and Wolves fans) will expect Arsenal to hammer Wolves and let’s face it, it looks like the most likely outcome. Arsenal have their detractors, but they’ve been brilliantly efficient this season and project to win this one comfortably.

Wolves always project for (and deliver) plenty of tackles and fouls – the likes of Andre, J. Gomes, Arias, Strand Larsen etc etc are extremely reliable and regular offenders and should be considered for Bet Builders.

Crystal Palace vs Man City betting tips

When: Sunday 14th December, 14:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

An interesting one. Palace can be very tricky at home and they’ve made great progress under Glasner and…well, they’re 4th in the league. Marshalled by Guehi at the back, controlled by Wharton in the middle of the park and enforced by Mateta at the top of the pitch, they’ve got a very solid Premier League spine.

But City look to be on one of their runs, with Foden in fine goal-scoring form to back-up the inevitable Haaland.

In the Bet Builder streets, Kamada fouls for fun and Mateta tends to draw plenty of fouls at Home, which brings Dias and Gvardial into play for Fouls Committed.

Notts Forest vs Spurs betting tips

When: Sunday 14th December, 14:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sport

Two sides looking to emerge from the large shadow of Ange Postecoglou meet at 2pm on Sunday in what should be a very tightly contested clash – our model has this as 1.32 v 1.28 projected goals (whatever that means).

Both sides carry a bit of momentum into the game; Forest have found an identify under Dyche and are starting to look more like a top-half side, while Thomas Frank seems to have found a way to win, even if his Spurs side are still searching for identity.

Archie Gray has started the last two games in midfield and is surely an England player in the making, in the meantime, the best way to recognise his talent might be to back him in the Player Tackles Market, where there are some juicy prices for the pugnacious young talent.

Sunderland vs Newcastle betting tips

When: Sunday 14th December, 14:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

It’s great to see the Tyne-Wear derby back on the Premier League schedule and this promises to be the traditionally feisty encounter.

Are Sunderland going to slowly, but inevitably fall into the relegation places? Are Newcastle, despite looking absolutely horrible to play against… actually good?

Both are difficult, but important questions to answer.

One angle – albeit the Projections don’t back this up – might be Newcastle corners. They average the most in the Premier League this season and in their last 3 games have gone 9-11-7.

West Ham vs Aston Villa betting tips

When: Sunday 14th December, 14:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Aston Villa must rate as one of the bets of the weekend to take 3 points at the imaginatively named London Stadium against a very average West Ham side. Take the 2.0 with bet365 for Villa to get the win here.

One (niche) angle our model has liked in recent weeks, is Freddie Potts To Be Fouled – often when players are new in the league, it takes a little time for Prop prices to stabilise and the energetic Potts is one to keep an eye on

Unai Emery has his side purring after a slow start to the season and Villa should have too much for West Ham, who have been flattered by recent draws against Brighton and United.

Brentford vs Leeds betting tips

When: Sunday 14th December, 16:30pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Not exactly a Super Sunday blockbuster, but we’ll take whatever the fixture scheduling gods throw at us.

We are projecting a Brentford win, but they’re not exactly the poster boys for Bet Builders or stats markets in general. They don’t tend to Shoot, Foul or Tackle that much and they average the lowest number of passes per game in the league…. should be a cracking watch.

But wait… Leeds games are full of action, Goals specifically. Let’s look at Total Goals for last 5 games; 6-4-5-3-4 – they’re all action and to their credit, they’re never beaten, as evidenced by their late equaliser last week against Liverpool.

Yeh, initially this looked like a bad watch, but we’ve talked ourselves into cancelling Sunday plans to tune in.

Manchester United vs Bournemouth betting tips

When: Monday 15th December, 20:00pm

Where to watch: Sky Sports

Whisper it quietly, United looked really good in the second-half against Wolves. Qualifier, this was a 45 minute period against a team who will almost certainly be relegated and had basically given up, but Bruno, Mount and Mbeumo linked up excellently.

Mount gets a hard time (esp from short-sighted United fans), but this writer believes he’s still a very good Premier League player and he looks to have a bit of swagger back – would not be surprised if he goes on a good run of performances in the next few weeks.

Bournemouth are stuttering and stumbling after a fast start. They haven’t won in their last 6, look overly reliant on Semenyo and their Summer departures are catching up with them.

When it comes to a betting angle here, get stuck into United Player Passes with b365 – this looks to be a very soft market.

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