Form Edges ranks player props by recent hit rate — the simplest empirical question in betting. Of the player's last 6 qualifying appearances, how often have they cleared the line the bookmaker is offering today? This page is a sibling to our Player Props page, but with a different probability source. Player Props uses the AI projection model to estimate the chance of a player clearing a threshold. Form Edges uses what's actually happened — the player's empirical hit rate over the last 6 matches in which they played at least 20 minutes. No model, no calibration claims, no projection error. Just verifiable past performance against the current bookmaker line. The edge calculation is identical to the AI page: form hit rate minus the bookmaker's implied probability, with the result expressed as a percentage. Star ratings combine the edge with the size of the qualifying sample. Markets covered: goals, assists, shots, shots on target, fouls, tackles, fouls drawn. When Form Edges and Player Props agree on a line, the case is strongest — past form and AI projection both pointing to the same bet. When they disagree, you have two perspectives to weigh. Both pages run on the same edge math against Bet365 lines.
Player Props uses the Statz AI model to project the probability of a player clearing a threshold. Form Edges uses the player's empirical hit rate across their last 6 qualifying appearances — no model, just what's actually happened. The edge calculation is identical (probability minus bookmaker implied), and both pages use the same star rating system. Use Form Edges when you want a verifiable, model-free view; use both pages when you want confirmation. When they agree on a line, that's the strongest case.
An appearance with 20 or more minutes played. Substitute appearances under 20 minutes don't qualify — the player didn't have meaningful match time to register the stat. The sample is the player's last 6 such appearances; players with fewer than 4 qualifying games in their recent history don't appear in Form Edges, because samples that small are too noisy to act on.
A few reasons. They may have fewer than 4 qualifying appearances in their recent history (returning from injury, recent transfer, rotation pattern). They may have no current bookmaker price on a tracked stat (the page only shows priced markets). The fixture may be in Liga Portugal, which we exclude across the projections platform. Or the calculated edge may be negative or below the rating threshold. The page is a filter, not a directory.
Edge = form hit rate minus bookmaker implied probability. If a player has hit 2+ shots on target in 4 of their last 6 games, their form hit rate is 67%. If Bet365 prices 2+ at 2.40, the implied probability is 41.7% (1/2.40). Edge = 67% − 41.7% = +25.3%. The same calculation runs on every priced player-prop line for every fixture, with the result sorted by star rating and surfaced on the page.
Goals, assists, shots, shots on target, fouls committed, tackles, and fouls drawn. These are the markets where last-6 hit rate is statistically meaningful given typical Premier League and major-league sample sizes. Yellow cards are excluded — they're too referee-dependent for last-6 form to be reliable. Bonus / fantasy-only stats are excluded — they don't have bookmaker markets to price against.
Past form is past form. A player who has hit a threshold consistently is more likely to hit it again than a player who hasn't, but "more likely" is not certainty. Opponent strength, fixture context, individual matchups, weather, and rotation all affect any single match. Form Edges identifies the players whose past performance gives them a positive edge against today's prices — it does not guarantee any specific outcome. Variance applies.