This is the full board rather than a shortlist: every fixture where the model disagrees with the bookmaker by enough to matter, across match result, both teams to score and over/under goals. Each row shows what the model makes the outcome, what the market makes it once the bookmaker's margin is removed, and the expected return per unit staked at the price on offer — which is the number the list is ranked by, because a two-point edge at 1.20 and a two-point edge at 9.00 are not the same bet. Markets appear here only while their settled record supports it: team-stat markets such as corners and cards are withheld while the projections behind them carry a measurable bias, and any market that starts losing is pulled automatically rather than waiting for someone to notice. For the short, staked, publicly tracked version of this page, see Best Bets.
Fixture Bets is the full board — every match-market edge the model finds today, so you can filter and judge for yourself. Best Bets is the short version: a handful of staked selections a day, published before kick-off and tracked to a public profit and loss.
Match result (1X2), both teams to score, and over/under 1.5 and 2.5 goals. Player props have their own page. Team-stat markets such as corners, cards and shots are withheld while the projections behind them carry a measurable bias.
The gap between the probability we stand behind and the probability the price implies. Bookmaker prices include a margin, so the raw price is the bar a bet has to clear — the edge is measured against it, and the expected-return figure converts that edge into what it is worth per unit staked.
Every market is judged on its own settled record. If one drops below a set return over a meaningful sample it is pulled from the page automatically and keeps being measured quietly in the background; it returns only once that hidden record earns it back.
Several times an hour as bookmaker prices move, and fixtures drop off the page once they kick off.
No. This page is a research surface showing where the model and the market disagree. The staked, tracked selections are on the Best Bets page.