Outrights turns the Statz model loose on the betting markets. Every projection — league title, top-four, relegation, World Cup group, knockout round and top scorer — is shown as a probability next to the best current bookmaker price, with edge indicators flagging where the market is behind the model. Switch between Teams and Players, compare odds across books, and bet straight from the page via integrated deeplinks. It's the cleanest view of where value sits across the season and the tournament.
Each remaining fixture is simulated thousands of times using the underlying match model. The aggregated outcomes produce the projected final position, points and probability of each team finishing in any given position.
It's the share of simulations in which a given team finishes top of the league. The same approach is used for top 4, top 6 and relegation probabilities.
Daily, after every matchday completes and underlying team strength estimates update.
Remaining fixture difficulty and underlying team strength differ. Two clubs on identical points can have very different relegation probabilities depending on who they still play and which side has the stronger underlying numbers.
The Bet365 outright market prices alongside each row are refreshed regularly. The edge column compares the simulation probability to the implied probability of the displayed price.
Yes — switch between title (win), top 4, top 6 and relegation tabs above the table to see the projection and edge for each market.