Southampton have the biggest shortfall in the Premier League: 12 points from chances worth 27.2 xPts, a gap of 15.2. At the other end, Nottingham Forest have taken 65 points from an xPts figure of 49.0, 16.0 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 19 | 42 | 40.4 | +1.6 | 16 | 16.8 | -0.8 | +26 | 23.6 | +2.4 | 46 | 40.2 | +5.8 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 19 | 35 | 35.6 | -0.6 | 17 | 17.3 | -0.3 | +18 | 18.3 | -0.3 | 39 | 36.7 | +2.3 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 19 | 34 | 37.3 | -3.3 | 20 | 19.4 | +0.6 | +14 | 17.9 | -3.9 | 40 | 36.6 | +3.4 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 19 | 35 | 36.4 | -1.4 | 18 | 19.5 | -1.5 | +17 | 17.0 | +0.0 | 41 | 36.6 | +4.4 |
| 5 | Manchester City | 19 | 43 | 35.9 | +7.1 | 23 | 20.8 | +2.2 | +20 | 15.1 | +4.9 | 42 | 35.0 | +7.0 |
| 6 | AFC Bournemouth | 19 | 23 | 32.7 | -9.7 | 16 | 24.5 | -8.5 | +7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 28 | 31.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | Newcastle United | 19 | 40 | 35.9 | +4.1 | 20 | 25.9 | -5.9 | +20 | 10.0 | +10.0 | 38 | 31.1 | +6.9 |
| 8 | Manchester United | 19 | 23 | 30.8 | -7.8 | 28 | 24.2 | +3.8 | -5 | 6.6 | -11.6 | 24 | 31.1 | -7.1 |
| 9 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 19 | 30 | 32.2 | -2.2 | 26 | 26.9 | -0.9 | +4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 32 | 29.7 | +2.3 |
| 10 | Brentford | 19 | 40 | 34.6 | +5.4 | 35 | 31.0 | +4.0 | +5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 31 | 28.7 | +2.3 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 19 | 24 | 32.2 | -8.2 | 26 | 26.7 | -0.7 | -2 | 5.4 | -7.4 | 25 | 28.4 | -3.4 |
| 12 | Fulham | 19 | 27 | 25.7 | +1.3 | 30 | 22.5 | +7.5 | -3 | 3.2 | -6.2 | 26 | 27.7 | -1.7 |
| 13 | Tottenham Hotspur | 19 | 35 | 34.1 | +0.9 | 35 | 33.2 | +1.8 | +0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 21 | 27.7 | -6.7 |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 19 | 26 | 25.8 | +0.2 | 16 | 24.0 | -8.0 | +10 | 1.8 | +8.2 | 32 | 27.5 | +4.5 |
| 15 | Everton | 19 | 26 | 22.7 | +3.3 | 23 | 25.7 | -2.7 | +3 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 24 | 24.5 | -0.5 |
| 16 | West Ham United | 19 | 23 | 25.9 | -2.9 | 34 | 31.5 | +2.5 | -11 | -5.5 | -5.5 | 20 | 22.9 | -2.9 |
| 17 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19 | 27 | 23.7 | +3.3 | 32 | 29.4 | +2.6 | -5 | -5.8 | +0.8 | 21 | 22.9 | -1.9 |
| 18 | Ipswich Town | 19 | 14 | 18.0 | -4.0 | 44 | 35.5 | +8.5 | -30 | -17.5 | -12.5 | 7 | 16.4 | -9.4 |
| 19 | Leicester City | 19 | 15 | 18.2 | -3.2 | 34 | 36.7 | -2.7 | -19 | -18.6 | -0.4 | 15 | 16.4 | -1.4 |
| 20 | Southampton | 19 | 13 | 17.8 | -4.8 | 47 | 44.8 | +2.2 | -34 | -27.0 | -7.0 | 6 | 13.2 | -7.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 19 | 44 | 44.6 | -0.6 | 25 | 21.1 | +3.9 | +19 | 23.6 | -4.6 | 38 | 37.7 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 19 | 34 | 33.4 | +0.6 | 17 | 20.5 | -3.5 | +17 | 12.9 | +4.1 | 35 | 33.6 | +1.4 |
| 3 | AFC Bournemouth | 19 | 35 | 35.2 | -0.2 | 30 | 27.2 | +2.8 | +5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | 28 | 30.8 | -2.8 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 19 | 29 | 33.0 | -4.0 | 21 | 26.0 | -5.0 | +8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 29 | 30.5 | -1.5 |
| 5 | Fulham | 19 | 27 | 29.4 | -2.4 | 24 | 24.3 | -0.3 | +3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 28 | 29.5 | -1.5 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 19 | 28 | 31.2 | -3.2 | 27 | 26.1 | +0.9 | +1 | 5.1 | -4.1 | 28 | 29.4 | -1.4 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 19 | 27 | 28.9 | -1.9 | 25 | 26.5 | -1.5 | +2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 28 | 28.1 | -0.1 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 19 | 36 | 28.7 | +7.3 | 33 | 28.0 | +5.0 | +3 | 0.6 | +2.4 | 29 | 27.1 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Chelsea | 19 | 29 | 31.0 | -2.0 | 25 | 29.4 | -4.4 | +4 | 1.6 | +2.4 | 28 | 26.1 | +1.9 |
| 10 | West Ham United | 19 | 23 | 27.1 | -4.1 | 28 | 28.6 | -0.6 | -5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | 23 | 24.9 | -1.9 |
| 11 | Tottenham Hotspur | 19 | 29 | 26.5 | +2.5 | 30 | 29.9 | +0.1 | -1 | -3.4 | +2.4 | 17 | 23.8 | -6.8 |
| 12 | Brentford | 19 | 26 | 24.2 | +1.8 | 22 | 30.8 | -8.8 | +4 | -6.7 | +10.7 | 25 | 21.7 | +3.3 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 19 | 21 | 23.1 | -2.1 | 26 | 30.3 | -4.3 | -5 | -7.2 | +2.2 | 18 | 21.7 | -3.7 |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 19 | 32 | 23.9 | +8.1 | 30 | 32.6 | -2.6 | +2 | -8.6 | +10.6 | 33 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| 15 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19 | 27 | 21.2 | +5.8 | 37 | 28.7 | +8.3 | -10 | -7.4 | -2.6 | 21 | 21.0 | +0.0 |
| 16 | Everton | 19 | 16 | 18.4 | -2.4 | 21 | 26.6 | -5.6 | -5 | -8.2 | +3.2 | 24 | 21.0 | +3.0 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 19 | 24 | 21.5 | +2.5 | 31 | 32.9 | -1.9 | -7 | -11.4 | +4.4 | 26 | 20.0 | +6.0 |
| 18 | Ipswich Town | 19 | 22 | 19.6 | +2.4 | 38 | 41.5 | -3.5 | -16 | -21.9 | +5.9 | 15 | 15.0 | +0.0 |
| 19 | Southampton | 19 | 13 | 17.7 | -4.7 | 39 | 41.6 | -2.6 | -26 | -23.9 | -2.1 | 6 | 13.9 | -7.9 |
| 20 | Leicester City | 19 | 18 | 17.7 | +0.3 | 46 | 43.5 | +2.5 | -28 | -25.7 | -2.3 | 10 | 13.2 | -3.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United | 5 | 6 | 11.0 | -5.0 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +3 | 7.4 | -4.4 | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 5 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | +6 | 3.8 | +2.2 | 13 | 9.1 | +3.9 |
| 3 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 10 | 10.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | +4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 5 | 6 | 9.1 | -3.1 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | -2 | 3.0 | -5.0 | 4 | 8.4 | -4.4 |
| 5 | Brentford | 5 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | +3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | +1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 5 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | +3 | 1.2 | +1.8 | 12 | 7.4 | +4.6 |
| 8 | Arsenal | 5 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | +1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 9 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | -2 | 0.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| 10 | West Ham United | 5 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | +1 | -0.7 | +1.7 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| 12 | Fulham | 5 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 |
| 13 | AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | +0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 13 | 8.5 | +4.5 | 6 | 8.9 | -2.9 | +7 | -0.4 | +7.4 | 13 | 6.6 | +6.4 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | -2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 |
| 16 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | 11 | 7.9 | +3.1 | -8 | -2.1 | -5.9 | 1 | 6.2 | -5.2 |
| 17 | Everton | 5 | 8 | 4.9 | +3.1 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | +4 | -1.1 | +5.1 | 10 | 5.9 | +4.1 |
| 18 | Leicester City | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | -1 | -3.4 | +2.4 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 |
| 19 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 14 | 11.1 | +2.9 | -11 | -7.2 | -3.8 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 20 | Southampton | 5 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | -6 | -7.4 | +1.4 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Premier League in 2024/2025, with 54 goals from chances worth 44.9 xG, a gap of 9.1. Nottingham Forest were next on 8.3.
Crystal Palace underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Premier League in 2024/2025, with 51 goals from chances worth 61.1 xG, a shortfall of 10.1. AFC Bournemouth and Manchester United were next on 9.9.
Nottingham Forest were the luckiest side in the Premier League in 2024/2025, with 65 points from performances worth 49.0 xPts, 16.0 more than their chances deserved. Aston Villa were next on 9.4.
Southampton were the unluckiest side in the Premier League in 2024/2025, with 12 points from performances worth 27.2 xPts, 15.2 short of what they deserved. Tottenham Hotspur were next on 13.5.
Liverpool were also top of the Premier League in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 77.9 xPts from 85.0 xG created and 37.9 conceded across 38 matches. Arsenal were next on 70.3.
Liverpool created the most xG in the Premier League in 2024/2025, 85.0 from 38 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Arsenal were next on 69.0.
Southampton created the least xG in the Premier League in 2024/2025, 35.5 from 38 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Leicester City were next on 35.9.
Southampton conceded the most xG in the Premier League in 2024/2025, 86.3 from 38 matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Leicester City were next on 80.2.
Arsenal conceded the least xG in the Premier League in 2024/2025, 37.8 from 38 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Liverpool were next on 37.9.
Premier League teams averaged 1.49 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 380 matches played, and scored 1.47 goals a game from it.
Premier League teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.57 a game against 1.41 away, a home advantage of +0.16.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 38 | 86 | 85.0 | +1.0 | 41 | 37.9 | +3.1 | +45 | 47.2 | -2.2 | 84 | 77.9 | +6.1 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 69 | 69.0 | +0.0 | 34 | 37.8 | -3.8 | +35 | 31.2 | +3.8 | 74 | 70.3 | +3.7 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 38 | 72 | 68.9 | +3.1 | 44 | 46.8 | -2.8 | +28 | 22.1 | +5.9 | 71 | 65.5 | +5.5 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 38 | 64 | 67.4 | -3.4 | 43 | 48.9 | -5.9 | +21 | 18.6 | +2.4 | 69 | 62.7 | +6.3 |
| 5 | AFC Bournemouth | 38 | 58 | 67.9 | -9.9 | 46 | 51.7 | -5.7 | +12 | 16.3 | -4.3 | 56 | 62.7 | -6.7 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 38 | 68 | 67.1 | +0.9 | 47 | 52.0 | -5.0 | +21 | 15.1 | +5.9 | 66 | 60.6 | +5.4 |
| 7 | Fulham | 38 | 54 | 55.1 | -1.1 | 54 | 46.9 | +7.1 | +0 | 8.3 | -8.3 | 54 | 57.2 | -3.2 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 38 | 66 | 60.9 | +5.1 | 59 | 54.9 | +4.1 | +7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 61 | 56.8 | +4.2 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 38 | 58 | 58.9 | -0.9 | 51 | 52.3 | -1.3 | +7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 66 | 56.6 | +9.4 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 51 | 61.1 | -10.1 | 51 | 53.2 | -2.2 | +0 | 7.8 | -7.8 | 53 | 56.5 | -3.5 |
| 11 | Manchester United | 38 | 44 | 53.9 | -9.9 | 54 | 54.5 | -0.5 | -10 | -0.6 | -9.4 | 42 | 52.7 | -10.7 |
| 12 | Tottenham Hotspur | 38 | 64 | 60.6 | +3.4 | 65 | 63.1 | +1.9 | -1 | -2.5 | +1.5 | 38 | 51.5 | -13.5 |
| 13 | Brentford | 38 | 66 | 58.8 | +7.2 | 57 | 61.8 | -4.8 | +9 | -3.1 | +12.1 | 56 | 50.4 | +5.6 |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 58 | 49.7 | +8.3 | 46 | 56.6 | -10.6 | +12 | -6.9 | +18.9 | 65 | 49.0 | +16.0 |
| 15 | West Ham United | 38 | 46 | 53.0 | -7.0 | 62 | 60.0 | +2.0 | -16 | -7.0 | -9.0 | 43 | 47.9 | -4.9 |
| 16 | Everton | 38 | 42 | 41.1 | +0.9 | 44 | 52.3 | -8.3 | -2 | -11.1 | +9.1 | 48 | 45.5 | +2.5 |
| 17 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 38 | 54 | 44.9 | +9.1 | 69 | 58.1 | +10.9 | -15 | -13.2 | -1.8 | 42 | 43.9 | -1.9 |
| 18 | Ipswich Town | 38 | 36 | 37.6 | -1.6 | 82 | 77.0 | +5.0 | -46 | -39.4 | -6.6 | 22 | 31.4 | -9.4 |
| 19 | Leicester City | 38 | 33 | 35.9 | -2.9 | 80 | 80.2 | -0.2 | -47 | -44.3 | -2.7 | 25 | 29.6 | -4.6 |
| 20 | Southampton | 38 | 26 | 35.5 | -9.5 | 86 | 86.3 | -0.3 | -60 | -50.9 | -9.1 | 12 | 27.2 | -15.2 |