No, Belarus have taken 8 points over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, within 0.35 of the 7.65 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Belarus create 0.69 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 5.55 in all, and have scored 3 goals from those chances, 2.55 fewer than that xG would expect.
Belarus allow 1.28 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 10.21 in all, and have conceded 6 goals from those chances, 4.21 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Valeriy Gromyko has the most expected goals (xG) for Belarus over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 0.95 xG in 6 appearances, and has scored 1 goal; Evgeniy Shikavka is next with 0.79 xG.
Belarus's results and their chances agree, within 0.4 points of xPts over 8 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 8 | 8 | 5.55 | 3 | -2.55 | 10.21 | 6 | +4.21 | 7.65 | 8 | +0.35 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.97 | 2 | -1.97 | 7.53 | 6 | +1.53 | 4.61 | 3 | -1.61 |
| Home | 3 | 2.65 | 1 | -1.65 | 3.75 | 1 | +2.75 | 3.07 | 3 | -0.07 |
| Away | 5 | 2.90 | 2 | -0.90 | 6.46 | 5 | +1.46 | 4.58 | 5 | +0.42 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Finland (A) | 0-0 | 0.50 | 1.04 | 0.87 | 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Albania (A) | 2-0 | 0.79 | 2.08 | 0.59 | 0 | L |
| 18 Nov | UEFA Nations League | Bulgaria (A) | 1-1 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 1.37 | 1 | D |
| 15 Nov | UEFA Nations League | Northern Ireland (A) | 2-0 | 0.37 | 2.41 | 0.26 | 0 | L |
| 15 Oct | UEFA Nations League | Luxembourg (H) | 1-1 | 1.74 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | UEFA Nations League | Northern Ireland (H) | 0-0 | 0.31 | 1.07 | 0.66 | 1 | L |
| 8 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Luxembourg (A) | 0-1 | 0.67 | 0.46 | 1.49 | 3 | D |
| 5 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Bulgaria (H) | 0-0 | 0.60 | 1.15 | 0.89 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuriy Kovalev | midfielder | 5 | 196 | 0.14 | 1 | +0.86 | 0.06 |
| Sergey Politevich | defender | 4 | 360 | 0.21 | 1 | +0.79 | 0.05 |
| Aleksandr Martynovich | defender | 5 | 450 | 0.52 | 1 | +0.48 | 0.10 |
| Valeriy Gromyko | midfielder | 6 | 307 | 0.95 | 1 | +0.05 | 0.28 |
| Dmitri Antilevski | attacker | 6 | 281 | 0.58 | 0 | -0.58 | 0.19 |
| Evgeniy Shikavka | attacker | 6 | 484 | 0.79 | 0 | -0.79 | 0.15 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 2 | 3.2 | 3 | 4.2 | 1 | 2.4 | 6 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Greece | 2 | 3.6 | 3 | 2.7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 2.6 | 5 | 2.2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 4 | France | 2 | 2.6 | 2 | 1.9 | 0 | 3.2 | 6 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Ukraine | 2 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.1 | 0 | 1.4 | 4 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Spain | 2 | 3.1 | 7 | 2.1 | 3 | 3.5 | 6 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | 0 | 2.2 | 4 | +1.8 |
| 8 | Austria | 2 | 4.6 | 6 | 1.7 | 2 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Montenegro | 2 | 4.6 | 5 | 1.9 | 3 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Albania | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 4.5 | 6 | +1.5 |
| 11 | Slovakia | 2 | 3.4 | 4 | 0.7 | 1 | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2 | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2.8 | 4 | +1.2 |
| 13 | Luxembourg | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 3.1 | 4 | 1.8 | 3 | +1.2 |
| 14 | Slovenia | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Republic of Ireland | 2 | 1.3 | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 | Switzerland | 2 | 3.8 | 6 | 0.2 | 0 | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 |
| 17 | Belgium | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | 3.5 | 1 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Malta | 1 | 3.3 | 2 | 0.9 | 1 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| 19 | Croatia | 2 | 2.6 | 3 | 2.4 | 5 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 20 | Italy | 2 | 3.8 | 4 | 3.8 | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 21 | Estonia | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 2.9 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.2 |
| 22 | Gibraltar | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.8 | 1 | +0.2 |
| 23 | Lithuania | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| 24 | Armenia | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.9 | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 25 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 0.8 | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.1 | 1 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Iceland | 2 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.6 | 1 | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 |
| 27 | Denmark | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| 28 | Liechtenstein | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | -0.3 |
| 29 | Azerbaijan | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| 30 | England | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.2 | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| 31 | Latvia | 2 | 1.4 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 32 | Belarus | 2 | 1.3 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 33 | Netherlands | 2 | 6.6 | 3 | 2.8 | 2 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| 34 | San Marino | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | 5.6 | 10 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| 35 | Finland | 2 | 4.7 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| 36 | North Macedonia | 2 | 0.6 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 | -0.7 |
| 37 | Kosovo | 2 | 3.8 | 2 | 1.9 | 3 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 38 | Faroe Islands | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.4 | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| 39 | Serbia | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 6.7 | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| 40 | Norway | 2 | 4.4 | 4 | 2.2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| 41 | Israel | 2 | 0.8 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 42 | Andorra | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 3.6 | 2 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| 43 | Moldova | 2 | 2.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| 44 | Czech Republic | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| 45 | Scotland | 2 | 1.6 | 0 | 2.1 | 3 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 46 | Cyprus | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4.2 | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 47 | Wales | 2 | 2.3 | 0 | 4.2 | 3 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| 48 | Germany | 2 | 3.1 | 1 | 3.4 | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| 49 | Poland | 2 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
| 50 | Romania | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | 6 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| 51 | Bulgaria | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| 52 | Hungary | 2 | 3.2 | 0 | 2.1 | 1 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| 53 | Georgia | 2 | 2.7 | 0 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 |
| 54 | Turkey | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | 2.8 | 5 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |