Yes, Kosovo have taken 15 points over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 1.57 more than the 13.43 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Kosovo create 1.39 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 11.08 in all, and have scored 12 goals from those chances, 0.92 more than that xG would expect.
Kosovo allow 0.92 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 7.33 in all, and have conceded 10 goals from those chances, 2.67 more than that xGA would expect.
Vedat Muriqi has the most expected goals (xG) for Kosovo over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 2.86 xG in 5 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Edon Zhegrova is next with 1.87 xG.
Kosovo have taken 1.6 points more than their chances warranted over 8 games: +0.9 goals against their xG, and -2.7 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 8 | 8 | 11.08 | 12 | +0.92 | 7.33 | 10 | -2.67 | 13.43 | 15 | +1.57 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.85 | 6 | -0.85 | 3.51 | 6 | -2.49 | 9.08 | 9 | -0.08 |
| Home | 4 | 5.42 | 5 | -0.42 | 3.77 | 3 | +0.77 | 6.53 | 9 | +2.47 |
| Away | 4 | 5.66 | 7 | +1.34 | 3.56 | 7 | -3.44 | 6.90 | 6 | -0.90 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Austria (A) | 3-1 | 1.40 | 1.61 | 1.24 | 0 | L |
| 24 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Republic of Ireland (H) | 1-0 | 2.37 | 0.30 | 2.64 | 3 | W |
| 18 Nov | UEFA Nations League | Lithuania (H) | 1-0 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 1.33 | 3 | D |
| 15 Nov | UEFA Nations League | Romania (A) | 3-0 | 1.09 | 0.28 | 2.04 | 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | UEFA Nations League | Cyprus (H) | 3-0 | 1.37 | 0.74 | 1.83 | 3 | W |
| 12 Oct | UEFA Nations League | Lithuania (A) | 1-2 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 1.32 | 3 | D |
| 9 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Cyprus (A) | 0-4 | 2.33 | 0.83 | 2.30 | 3 | W |
| 6 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Romania (H) | 0-3 | 1.06 | 2.15 | 0.73 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumbardh Dellova | defender | 5 | 404 | 0.03 | 1 | +0.97 | 0.01 |
| Ermal Krasniqi | midfielder | 6 | 298 | 1.16 | 2 | +0.84 | 0.35 |
| Amir Rrahmani | defender | 4 | 347 | 0.37 | 1 | +0.63 | 0.10 |
| Muharrem Jashari | midfielder | 3 | 137 | 0.47 | 1 | +0.53 | 0.31 |
| Vedat Muriqi | attacker | 5 | 359 | 2.86 | 3 | +0.14 | 0.72 |
| Edon Zhegrova | attacker | 6 | 434 | 1.87 | 2 | +0.13 | 0.39 |
| Albion Rrahmani | attacker | 5 | 279 | 1.19 | 1 | -0.19 | 0.38 |
| Milot Rashica | attacker | 5 | 281 | 0.51 | 0 | -0.51 | 0.16 |
| Fisnik Asllani | attacker | 6 | 104 | 0.56 | 0 | -0.56 | 0.48 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 2 | 3.2 | 3 | 4.2 | 1 | 2.4 | 6 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Greece | 2 | 3.6 | 3 | 2.7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 2.6 | 5 | 2.2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 4 | France | 2 | 2.6 | 2 | 1.9 | 0 | 3.2 | 6 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Ukraine | 2 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.1 | 0 | 1.4 | 4 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Spain | 2 | 3.1 | 7 | 2.1 | 3 | 3.5 | 6 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | 0 | 2.2 | 4 | +1.8 |
| 8 | Austria | 2 | 4.6 | 6 | 1.7 | 2 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Montenegro | 2 | 4.6 | 5 | 1.9 | 3 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Albania | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 4.5 | 6 | +1.5 |
| 11 | Slovakia | 2 | 3.4 | 4 | 0.7 | 1 | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2 | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2.8 | 4 | +1.2 |
| 13 | Luxembourg | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 3.1 | 4 | 1.8 | 3 | +1.2 |
| 14 | Slovenia | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Republic of Ireland | 2 | 1.3 | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 | Switzerland | 2 | 3.8 | 6 | 0.2 | 0 | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 |
| 17 | Belgium | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | 3.5 | 1 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Malta | 1 | 3.3 | 2 | 0.9 | 1 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| 19 | Croatia | 2 | 2.6 | 3 | 2.4 | 5 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 20 | Italy | 2 | 3.8 | 4 | 3.8 | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 21 | Estonia | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 2.9 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.2 |
| 22 | Gibraltar | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.8 | 1 | +0.2 |
| 23 | Lithuania | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| 24 | Armenia | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.9 | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 25 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 0.8 | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.1 | 1 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Iceland | 2 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.6 | 1 | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 |
| 27 | Denmark | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| 28 | Liechtenstein | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | -0.3 |
| 29 | Azerbaijan | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| 30 | England | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.2 | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| 31 | Latvia | 2 | 1.4 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 32 | Belarus | 2 | 1.3 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 33 | Netherlands | 2 | 6.6 | 3 | 2.8 | 2 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| 34 | San Marino | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | 5.6 | 10 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| 35 | Finland | 2 | 4.7 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| 36 | North Macedonia | 2 | 0.6 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 | -0.7 |
| 37 | Kosovo | 2 | 3.8 | 2 | 1.9 | 3 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 38 | Faroe Islands | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.4 | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| 39 | Serbia | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 6.7 | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| 40 | Norway | 2 | 4.4 | 4 | 2.2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| 41 | Israel | 2 | 0.8 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 42 | Andorra | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 3.6 | 2 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| 43 | Moldova | 2 | 2.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| 44 | Czech Republic | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| 45 | Scotland | 2 | 1.6 | 0 | 2.1 | 3 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 46 | Cyprus | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4.2 | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 47 | Wales | 2 | 2.3 | 0 | 4.2 | 3 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| 48 | Germany | 2 | 3.1 | 1 | 3.4 | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| 49 | Poland | 2 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
| 50 | Romania | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | 6 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| 51 | Bulgaria | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| 52 | Hungary | 2 | 3.2 | 0 | 2.1 | 1 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| 53 | Georgia | 2 | 2.7 | 0 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 |
| 54 | Turkey | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | 2.8 | 5 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |