No, Latvia have taken 5 points over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 2.28 fewer than the 7.28 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Latvia create 0.87 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 6.97 in all, and have scored 4 goals from those chances, 2.97 fewer than that xG would expect.
Latvia allow 1.51 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 12.06 in all, and have conceded 13 goals from those chances, 0.94 more than that xGA would expect.
R. Uldriķis has the most expected goals (xG) for Latvia over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 1.39 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 1 goal; Dario Sits is next with 1.07 xG.
Latvia have taken 2.3 points fewer than their chances warranted over 8 games: -3.0 goals against their xG, and -0.9 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 8 | 8 | 6.97 | 4 | -2.97 | 12.06 | 13 | -0.94 | 7.28 | 5 | -2.28 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.81 | 2 | -2.81 | 8.03 | 6 | +2.03 | 4.64 | 2 | -2.64 |
| Home | 4 | 4.03 | 2 | -2.03 | 6.31 | 5 | +1.31 | 3.95 | 4 | +0.05 |
| Away | 4 | 2.94 | 2 | -0.94 | 5.75 | 8 | -2.25 | 3.33 | 1 | -2.33 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Cyprus (H) | 0-0 | 1.01 | 1.72 | 0.91 | 1 | L |
| 25 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Armenia (A) | 2-0 | 0.36 | 1.37 | 0.57 | 0 | L |
| 17 Nov | UEFA Nations League | Armenia (H) | 1-2 | 1.08 | 1.98 | 0.82 | 0 | L |
| 14 Nov | UEFA Nations League | North Macedonia (A) | 1-0 | 0.91 | 1.66 | 0.86 | 0 | L |
| 13 Oct | UEFA Nations League | Faroe Islands (A) | 1-1 | 1.45 | 1.30 | 1.48 | 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | UEFA Nations League | North Macedonia (H) | 0-3 | 0.68 | 1.37 | 0.84 | 0 | L |
| 10 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Faroe Islands (H) | 1-0 | 1.26 | 1.24 | 1.38 | 3 | W |
| 7 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Armenia (A) | 4-1 | 0.22 | 1.42 | 0.42 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renars Varslavans | midfielder | 6 | 384 | 0.35 | 1 | +0.65 | 0.08 |
| Dario Sits | attacker | 3 | 168 | 1.07 | 1 | -0.07 | 0.58 |
| R. Uldriķis | attacker | 8 | 371 | 1.39 | 1 | -0.39 | 0.34 |
| Janis Ikaunieks | midfielder | 5 | 395 | 0.52 | 0 | -0.52 | 0.12 |
| Deniss Melniks | midfielder | 5 | 217 | 0.67 | 0 | -0.67 | 0.28 |
| Vladislavs Gutkovskis | attacker | 7 | 367 | 0.88 | 0 | -0.88 | 0.22 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 2 | 3.2 | 3 | 4.2 | 1 | 2.4 | 6 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Greece | 2 | 3.6 | 3 | 2.7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 2.6 | 5 | 2.2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 4 | France | 2 | 2.6 | 2 | 1.9 | 0 | 3.2 | 6 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Ukraine | 2 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.1 | 0 | 1.4 | 4 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Spain | 2 | 3.1 | 7 | 2.1 | 3 | 3.5 | 6 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | 0 | 2.2 | 4 | +1.8 |
| 8 | Austria | 2 | 4.6 | 6 | 1.7 | 2 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Montenegro | 2 | 4.6 | 5 | 1.9 | 3 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Albania | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 4.5 | 6 | +1.5 |
| 11 | Slovakia | 2 | 3.4 | 4 | 0.7 | 1 | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2 | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2.8 | 4 | +1.2 |
| 13 | Luxembourg | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 3.1 | 4 | 1.8 | 3 | +1.2 |
| 14 | Slovenia | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Republic of Ireland | 2 | 1.3 | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 | Switzerland | 2 | 3.8 | 6 | 0.2 | 0 | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 |
| 17 | Belgium | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | 3.5 | 1 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Malta | 1 | 3.3 | 2 | 0.9 | 1 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| 19 | Croatia | 2 | 2.6 | 3 | 2.4 | 5 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 20 | Italy | 2 | 3.8 | 4 | 3.8 | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 21 | Estonia | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 2.9 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.2 |
| 22 | Gibraltar | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.8 | 1 | +0.2 |
| 23 | Lithuania | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| 24 | Armenia | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.9 | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 25 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 0.8 | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.1 | 1 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Iceland | 2 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.6 | 1 | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 |
| 27 | Denmark | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| 28 | Liechtenstein | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | -0.3 |
| 29 | Azerbaijan | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| 30 | England | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.2 | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| 31 | Latvia | 2 | 1.4 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 32 | Belarus | 2 | 1.3 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 33 | Netherlands | 2 | 6.6 | 3 | 2.8 | 2 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| 34 | San Marino | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | 5.6 | 10 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| 35 | Finland | 2 | 4.7 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| 36 | North Macedonia | 2 | 0.6 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 | -0.7 |
| 37 | Kosovo | 2 | 3.8 | 2 | 1.9 | 3 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 38 | Faroe Islands | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.4 | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| 39 | Serbia | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 6.7 | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| 40 | Norway | 2 | 4.4 | 4 | 2.2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| 41 | Israel | 2 | 0.8 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 42 | Andorra | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 3.6 | 2 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| 43 | Moldova | 2 | 2.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| 44 | Czech Republic | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| 45 | Scotland | 2 | 1.6 | 0 | 2.1 | 3 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 46 | Cyprus | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4.2 | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 47 | Wales | 2 | 2.3 | 0 | 4.2 | 3 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| 48 | Germany | 2 | 3.1 | 1 | 3.4 | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| 49 | Poland | 2 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
| 50 | Romania | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | 6 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| 51 | Bulgaria | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| 52 | Hungary | 2 | 3.2 | 0 | 2.1 | 1 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| 53 | Georgia | 2 | 2.7 | 0 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 |
| 54 | Turkey | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | 2.8 | 5 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |