Italy xG 2026

Italy xG Questions

Are Italy overperforming their xG?

Yes, Italy have taken 16 points over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 1.69 more than the 14.31 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.

What is Italy's xG per game?

Italy create 1.74 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 13.90 in all, and have scored 17 goals from those chances, 3.10 more than that xG would expect.

What is Italy's xGA per game?

Italy allow 1.10 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 8.79 in all, and have conceded 11 goals from those chances, 2.21 more than that xGA would expect.

Who has the most xG for Italy?

Davide Frattesi has the most expected goals (xG) for Italy over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 2.63 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Mateo Retegui is next with 1.79 xG.

Italy expected goals 2026: last 8

Games: 8
Expected goals (xG): 13.90
Goals scored: 17
Goals minus xG: +3.10
Expected goals against (xGA): 8.79
Goals conceded: 11
xGA minus goals conceded: -2.21
Expected points (xPts): 14.31
Points: 16
Points minus xPts: +1.69
Verdict: Running a little hot

Are Italy overperforming their expected goals?

Italy have taken 1.7 points more than their chances warranted over 8 games: +3.1 goals against their xG, and -2.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.

Next opponent: France expected goals

Games: 8
France xG per game: 1.51
France xGA per game: 0.96
Points minus xPts: +5.28
Verdict: Riding their luck

Italy results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
Last 8	8	13.90	17	+3.10	8.79	11	-2.21	14.31	16	+1.69
Last 5	5	9.79	10	+0.21	5.90	7	-1.10	9.31	9	-0.31
Home	4	6.90	7	+0.10	4.57	8	-3.43	7.05	4	-3.05
Away	4	7.00	10	+3.00	4.22	3	+1.22	7.26	12	+4.74

Italy expected goals match by match, last 8

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
28 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Turkey (A)	1-4	1.79	1.80	1.38	3	L
25 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Belgium (H)	0-2	2.01	1.98	1.42	0	W
17 Nov	UEFA Nations League	France (H)	1-3	0.99	0.50	1.75	0	W
14 Nov	UEFA Nations League	Belgium (A)	0-1	2.62	0.81	2.42	3	W
14 Oct	UEFA Nations League	Israel (H)	4-1	2.38	0.81	2.34	3	W
10 Oct	UEFA Nations League	Belgium (H)	2-2	1.52	1.28	1.54	1	W
9 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Israel (A)	1-2	1.33	0.75	1.80	3	W
6 Sep	UEFA Nations League	France (A)	1-3	1.26	0.86	1.66	3	W

Italy players: goals against expected goals, last 8

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Davide Frattesi	midfielder	8	592	2.63	4	+1.37	0.40
Federico Dimarco	defender	6	446	0.25	1	+0.76	0.05
Alessandro Bastoni	defender	7	630	0.31	1	+0.69	0.04
Andrea Cambiaso	defender	6	456	1.38	2	+0.62	0.27
Giovanni Di Lorenzo	defender	7	548	1.41	2	+0.59	0.23
Mateo Retegui	attacker	6	383	1.79	2	+0.21	0.42
Giacomo Raspadori	attacker	7	271	1.04	1	-0.04	0.35
Moise Kean	attacker	5	231	1.29	1	-0.29	0.50
Sandro Tonali	midfielder	8	710	1.45	1	-0.45	0.18

UEFA Nations League 2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Portugal	2	3.2	3	4.2	1	2.4	6	+3.6
2	Greece	2	3.6	3	2.7	1	3	6	+3
3	Sweden	2	2.6	5	2.2	2	3	6	+3
4	France	2	2.6	2	1.9	0	3.2	6	+2.8
5	Ukraine	2	1.4	1	3.1	0	1.4	4	+2.6
6	Spain	2	3.1	7	2.1	3	3.5	6	+2.5
7	Northern Ireland	2	2	1	2.7	0	2.2	4	+1.8
8	Austria	2	4.6	6	1.7	2	4.3	6	+1.7
9	Montenegro	2	4.6	5	1.9	3	4.3	6	+1.7
10	Albania	2	4	5	1.5	0	4.5	6	+1.5
11	Slovakia	2	3.4	4	0.7	1	4.7	6	+1.3
12	Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	2.3	4	2	2	2.8	4	+1.2
13	Luxembourg	2	1.7	2	3.1	4	1.8	3	+1.2
14	Slovenia	2	2.2	2	2	0	2.9	4	+1.1
15	Republic of Ireland	2	1.3	3	2.9	1	2	3	+1
16	Switzerland	2	3.8	6	0.2	0	5.2	6	+0.8
17	Belgium	2	2.9	2	3.5	1	2.3	3	+0.7
18	Malta	1	3.3	2	0.9	1	2.6	3	+0.4
19	Croatia	2	2.6	3	2.4	5	2.8	3	+0.2
20	Italy	2	3.8	4	3.8	3	2.8	3	+0.2
21	Estonia	2	1.7	1	2.9	1	1.8	2	+0.2
22	Gibraltar	1	0.3	0	0.8	0	0.8	1	+0.2
23	Lithuania	2	2.9	3	1.4	1	3.9	4	+0.1
24	Armenia	2	2	4	1.9	3	2.9	3	+0.1
25	Kazakhstan	2	0.8	2	2.9	3	1.1	1	-0.1
26	Iceland	2	3.7	4	1.6	1	4.2	4	-0.2
27	Denmark	2	3.2	4	2.5	3	3.2	3	-0.2
28	Liechtenstein	1	0.1	0	1.6	2	0.3	0	-0.3
29	Azerbaijan	1	1.3	1	1.3	1	1.4	1	-0.4
30	England	2	3.2	4	2.2	3	3.5	3	-0.5
31	Latvia	2	1.4	0	3.1	2	1.5	1	-0.5
32	Belarus	2	1.3	0	3.1	2	1.5	1	-0.5
33	Netherlands	2	6.6	3	2.8	2	4.6	4	-0.6
34	San Marino	2	0.7	0	5.6	10	0.6	0	-0.6
35	Finland	2	4.7	7	0.5	0	4.7	4	-0.7
36	North Macedonia	2	0.6	0	4	5	0.7	0	-0.7
37	Kosovo	2	3.8	2	1.9	3	3.9	3	-0.9
38	Faroe Islands	2	2.5	2	2.4	2	2.9	2	-0.9
39	Serbia	2	2.5	2	6.7	4	0.9	0	-0.9
40	Norway	2	4.4	4	2.2	4	4	3	-1
41	Israel	2	0.8	1	4	6	1	0	-1
42	Andorra	2	1.7	1	3.6	2	2.1	1	-1.1
43	Moldova	2	2.3	1	3	3	2.3	1	-1.3
44	Czech Republic	2	1.5	1	3.7	4	1.3	0	-1.3
45	Scotland	2	1.6	0	2.1	3	2.4	1	-1.4
46	Cyprus	2	3	1	4.2	2	2.4	1	-1.4
47	Wales	2	2.3	0	4.2	3	1.6	0	-1.6
48	Germany	2	3.1	1	3.4	2	2.8	1	-1.8
49	Poland	2	2.2	1	2	3	3	1	-2
50	Romania	2	2	3	2.9	6	2.1	0	-2.1
51	Bulgaria	2	2.4	1	1.8	2	3.2	1	-2.2
52	Hungary	2	3.2	0	2.1	1	3.5	1	-2.5
53	Georgia	2	2.7	0	1.4	1	3.7	1	-2.7
54	Turkey	2	2.8	1	2.8	5	2.7	0	-2.7

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