Turkey host Italy on 28 September 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League. Turkey's last five results: W L L W L (2 wins and 3 losses). Italy's last five: W D W W L (3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss). In their last 2 meetings, Turkey have won 0, Italy 1, with 1 draw.
Turkey vs Italy kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 28 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League.
Turkey's last five results read W L L W L (oldest to newest): 2 wins and 3 losses.
Italy's last five results read W D W W L (oldest to newest): 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Across the last 2 meetings Turkey have won 0, Italy have won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent was Italy 0-0 Turkey on 4 June 2024 in the Friendly International.
Arda Güler leads Turkey with 25 shots across their last 10 games.
Moise Kean leads Italy with 5 goals across their last 10 games.
Predicted lineups for Turkey vs Italy appear on the Lineups tab of this page once the team news is in, usually the day before the game.
Statz's projection model makes Turkey the favourite with a 43% chance of winning, against 33% for Italy and 24% for the draw. Projected goals are Turkey 1.6 - 1.4 Italy.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a draw, at 11%. Both teams to score is 60% likely and over 2.5 goals 58%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jun 2024 | Friendly International | Italy vs Turkey | 0-0 |
| 29 Mar 2022 | Friendly International | Turkey vs Italy | 2-3 |
Statz's projection model expects Turkey 1.6 - 1.4 Italy in goals. It gives Turkey a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Italy 33%. Both teams to score is 60% likely, over 1.5 goals 80% and over 2.5 goals 58%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 0-1 (7%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 11% |
| 2-1 | Turkey win | 9% |
| 1-0 | Turkey win | 8% |
| 1-2 | Italy win | 8% |
| 0-1 | Italy win | 7% |
| # | Turkey | Fouls committed | Italy | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | İ. Yüksek | 12 | N. Barella | 15 |
| 2 | B. Yılmaz | 12 | P. Esposito | 11 |
| 3 | A. Güler | 12 | M. Locatelli | 9 |
| 4 | S. Özcan | 8 | A. Bastoni | 8 |
| 5 | D. Gül | 7 | M. Retegui | 7 |
| # | Turkey | Shots | Italy | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Güler | 25 | P. Esposito | 26 |
| 2 | H. Çalhanoğlu | 24 | M. Retegui | 19 |
| 3 | K. Yıldız | 20 | M. Kean | 19 |
| 4 | K. Aktürkoğlu | 16 | S. Tonali | 15 |
| 5 | B. Yılmaz | 12 | F. Dimarco | 10 |
| # | Turkey | Shots on target | Italy | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Güler | 8 | P. Esposito | 15 |
| 2 | B. Yılmaz | 6 | M. Kean | 10 |
| 3 | K. Aktürkoğlu | 4 | M. Retegui | 8 |
| 4 | H. Çalhanoğlu | 4 | S. Tonali | 5 |
| 5 | O. Kökçü | 4 | G. Raspadori | 5 |
| # | Turkey | Goals | Italy | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B. Yılmaz | 3 | M. Kean | 5 |
| 2 | D. Gül | 2 | P. Esposito | 5 |
| 3 | K. Aktürkoğlu | 2 | M. Retegui | 3 |
| 4 | S. Özcan | 1 | S. Tonali | 2 |
| 5 | H. Çalhanoğlu | 1 | G. Mancini | 2 |
| # | Turkey | Yellow cards | Italy | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. Özcan | 2 | N. Barella | 3 |
| 2 | A. Güler | 2 | A. Bastoni | 3 |
| 3 | İ. Yüksek | 2 | G. Donnarumma | 2 |
| 4 | K. Aktürkoğlu | 2 | A. Cambiaso | 1 |
| 5 | M. Demiral | 1 | S. Tonali | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Turkey vs Italy: Pio Esposito 1+ shots on target (100% hit rate at 1.44); Riccardo Calafiori 1+ shots (100% hit rate at 1.73); Salih Özcan 1+ fouls (100% hit rate at 1.20); Merih Demiral 1+ fouls (100% hit rate at 1.25). Combined odds 3.74 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0 | 26 of 54 |
| Goals against | 1 | 11 of 54 |
| Shots | 12 | 19 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 24 of 54 |
| Fouls | 14 | 13 of 54 |
| Tackles | 14 | 15 of 54 |
| Passes | 365 | 28 of 54 |
| Corners | 5 | 10 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0 | 24 of 54 |
| Goals against | 2 | 23 of 54 |
| Shots | 21 | 5 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 10 of 54 |
| Fouls | 12 | 16 of 54 |
| Tackles | 11 | 26 of 54 |
| Passes | 590 | 4 of 54 |
| Corners | 4 | 13 of 54 |