No, Lithuania have taken 4 points over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 6.47 fewer than the 10.47 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Lithuania create 1.02 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 8.12 in all, and have scored 7 goals from those chances, 1.12 fewer than that xG would expect.
Lithuania allow 1.13 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 9.05 in all, and have conceded 12 goals from those chances, 2.95 more than that xGA would expect.
Armandas Kucys has the most expected goals (xG) for Lithuania over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 2.55 xG in 6 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Pijus Sirvys is next with 0.69 xG.
Lithuania have taken 6.5 points fewer than their chances warranted over 8 games: -1.1 goals against their xG, and -3.0 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 8 | 8 | 8.12 | 7 | -1.12 | 9.05 | 12 | -2.95 | 10.47 | 4 | -6.47 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.78 | 5 | -0.78 | 5.39 | 6 | -0.61 | 7.16 | 4 | -3.16 |
| Home | 4 | 4.37 | 3 | -1.37 | 4.55 | 6 | -1.45 | 5.34 | 1 | -4.34 |
| Away | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | +0.25 | 4.50 | 6 | -1.50 | 5.13 | 3 | -2.13 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Azerbaijan (H) | 1-1 | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1 | L |
| 24 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Liechtenstein (A) | 0-2 | 1.61 | 0.11 | 2.51 | 3 | W |
| 18 Nov | UEFA Nations League | Kosovo (A) | 1-0 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 1.25 | 0 | D |
| 15 Nov | UEFA Nations League | Cyprus (A) | 2-1 | 1.10 | 1.68 | 0.99 | 0 | L |
| 15 Oct | UEFA Nations League | Romania (H) | 1-2 | 1.18 | 1.65 | 1.06 | 0 | L |
| 12 Oct | UEFA Nations League | Kosovo (H) | 1-2 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 1.33 | 0 | D |
| 9 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Romania (A) | 3-1 | 0.46 | 2.09 | 0.38 | 0 | L |
| 6 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Cyprus (H) | 0-1 | 1.04 | 0.73 | 1.60 | 0 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artūr Dolžnikov | attacker | 7 | 422 | 0.29 | 1 | +0.71 | 0.06 |
| Gvidas Gineitis | midfielder | 6 | 540 | 0.48 | 1 | +0.52 | 0.08 |
| Armandas Kucys | attacker | 6 | 462 | 2.55 | 3 | +0.46 | 0.50 |
| Paulius Golubickas | midfielder | 4 | 200 | 0.56 | 1 | +0.44 | 0.25 |
| Fedor Černych | attacker | 4 | 136 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.41 |
| Pijus Sirvys | defender | 7 | 536 | 0.69 | 0 | -0.69 | 0.12 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 2 | 3.2 | 3 | 4.2 | 1 | 2.4 | 6 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Greece | 2 | 3.6 | 3 | 2.7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 2.6 | 5 | 2.2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 4 | France | 2 | 2.6 | 2 | 1.9 | 0 | 3.2 | 6 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Ukraine | 2 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.1 | 0 | 1.4 | 4 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Spain | 2 | 3.1 | 7 | 2.1 | 3 | 3.5 | 6 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | 0 | 2.2 | 4 | +1.8 |
| 8 | Austria | 2 | 4.6 | 6 | 1.7 | 2 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Montenegro | 2 | 4.6 | 5 | 1.9 | 3 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Albania | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 4.5 | 6 | +1.5 |
| 11 | Slovakia | 2 | 3.4 | 4 | 0.7 | 1 | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2 | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2.8 | 4 | +1.2 |
| 13 | Luxembourg | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 3.1 | 4 | 1.8 | 3 | +1.2 |
| 14 | Slovenia | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Republic of Ireland | 2 | 1.3 | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 | Switzerland | 2 | 3.8 | 6 | 0.2 | 0 | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 |
| 17 | Belgium | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | 3.5 | 1 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Malta | 1 | 3.3 | 2 | 0.9 | 1 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| 19 | Croatia | 2 | 2.6 | 3 | 2.4 | 5 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 20 | Italy | 2 | 3.8 | 4 | 3.8 | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 21 | Estonia | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 2.9 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.2 |
| 22 | Gibraltar | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.8 | 1 | +0.2 |
| 23 | Lithuania | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| 24 | Armenia | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.9 | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 25 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 0.8 | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.1 | 1 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Iceland | 2 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.6 | 1 | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 |
| 27 | Denmark | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| 28 | Liechtenstein | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | -0.3 |
| 29 | Azerbaijan | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| 30 | England | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.2 | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| 31 | Latvia | 2 | 1.4 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 32 | Belarus | 2 | 1.3 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 33 | Netherlands | 2 | 6.6 | 3 | 2.8 | 2 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| 34 | San Marino | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | 5.6 | 10 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| 35 | Finland | 2 | 4.7 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| 36 | North Macedonia | 2 | 0.6 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 | -0.7 |
| 37 | Kosovo | 2 | 3.8 | 2 | 1.9 | 3 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 38 | Faroe Islands | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.4 | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| 39 | Serbia | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 6.7 | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| 40 | Norway | 2 | 4.4 | 4 | 2.2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| 41 | Israel | 2 | 0.8 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 42 | Andorra | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 3.6 | 2 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| 43 | Moldova | 2 | 2.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| 44 | Czech Republic | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| 45 | Scotland | 2 | 1.6 | 0 | 2.1 | 3 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 46 | Cyprus | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4.2 | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 47 | Wales | 2 | 2.3 | 0 | 4.2 | 3 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| 48 | Germany | 2 | 3.1 | 1 | 3.4 | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| 49 | Poland | 2 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
| 50 | Romania | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | 6 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| 51 | Bulgaria | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| 52 | Hungary | 2 | 3.2 | 0 | 2.1 | 1 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| 53 | Georgia | 2 | 2.7 | 0 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 |
| 54 | Turkey | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | 2.8 | 5 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |