Yes, Ukraine have taken 12 points over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 2.67 more than the 9.33 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Ukraine create 1.16 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 9.25 in all, and have scored 9 goals from those chances, 0.25 fewer than that xG would expect.
Ukraine allow 1.42 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 11.35 in all, and have conceded 8 goals from those chances, 3.35 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Artem Dovbyk has the most expected goals (xG) for Ukraine over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 1.25 xG in 4 appearances, and has scored 1 goal; Vladyslav Vanat is next with 1.22 xG.
Ukraine have taken 2.7 points more than their chances warranted over 8 games: -0.3 goals against their xG, and +3.4 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 8 | 8 | 9.25 | 9 | -0.25 | 11.35 | 8 | +3.35 | 9.33 | 12 | +2.67 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.40 | 5 | -0.40 | 7.21 | 3 | +4.21 | 5.45 | 9 | +3.55 |
| Home | 3 | 3.16 | 3 | -0.16 | 3.22 | 3 | +0.22 | 3.98 | 4 | +0.02 |
| Away | 5 | 6.09 | 6 | -0.09 | 8.13 | 5 | +3.13 | 5.35 | 8 | +2.65 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Georgia (A) | 0-0 | 0.22 | 1.05 | 0.58 | 1 | L |
| 25 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Hungary (A) | 0-1 | 1.21 | 2.09 | 0.85 | 3 | L |
| 19 Nov | UEFA Nations League | Albania (A) | 1-2 | 1.57 | 1.30 | 1.56 | 3 | W |
| 16 Nov | UEFA Nations League | Georgia (A) | 1-1 | 0.97 | 1.33 | 1.09 | 1 | L |
| 14 Oct | UEFA Nations League | Czech Republic (H) | 1-1 | 1.43 | 1.44 | 1.37 | 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | UEFA Nations League | Georgia (H) | 1-0 | 0.68 | 0.86 | 1.16 | 3 | L |
| 10 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Czech Republic (A) | 3-2 | 2.12 | 2.36 | 1.27 | 0 | L |
| 7 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Albania (H) | 1-2 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 1.45 | 0 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yukhym Konoplya | defender | 5 | 426 | 0.08 | 1 | +0.92 | 0.02 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko | defender | 3 | 163 | 0.32 | 1 | +0.68 | 0.17 |
| Roman Yaremchuk | attacker | 7 | 256 | 0.83 | 1 | +0.17 | 0.29 |
| Mykhaylo Mudryk | attacker | 5 | 440 | 0.86 | 1 | +0.14 | 0.18 |
| Georgiy Sudakov | midfielder | 7 | 539 | 1.09 | 1 | -0.09 | 0.18 |
| Vladyslav Vanat | attacker | 4 | 202 | 1.22 | 1 | -0.22 | 0.55 |
| Artem Dovbyk | attacker | 4 | 249 | 1.25 | 1 | -0.25 | 0.45 |
| Viktor Tsygankov | attacker | 4 | 203 | 0.53 | 0 | -0.53 | 0.23 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 2 | 3.2 | 3 | 4.2 | 1 | 2.4 | 6 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Greece | 2 | 3.6 | 3 | 2.7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 2.6 | 5 | 2.2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 4 | France | 2 | 2.6 | 2 | 1.9 | 0 | 3.2 | 6 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Ukraine | 2 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.1 | 0 | 1.4 | 4 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Spain | 2 | 3.1 | 7 | 2.1 | 3 | 3.5 | 6 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | 0 | 2.2 | 4 | +1.8 |
| 8 | Austria | 2 | 4.6 | 6 | 1.7 | 2 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Montenegro | 2 | 4.6 | 5 | 1.9 | 3 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Albania | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 4.5 | 6 | +1.5 |
| 11 | Slovakia | 2 | 3.4 | 4 | 0.7 | 1 | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2 | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2.8 | 4 | +1.2 |
| 13 | Luxembourg | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 3.1 | 4 | 1.8 | 3 | +1.2 |
| 14 | Slovenia | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Republic of Ireland | 2 | 1.3 | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 | Switzerland | 2 | 3.8 | 6 | 0.2 | 0 | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 |
| 17 | Belgium | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | 3.5 | 1 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Malta | 1 | 3.3 | 2 | 0.9 | 1 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| 19 | Croatia | 2 | 2.6 | 3 | 2.4 | 5 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 20 | Italy | 2 | 3.8 | 4 | 3.8 | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 21 | Estonia | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 2.9 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.2 |
| 22 | Gibraltar | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.8 | 1 | +0.2 |
| 23 | Lithuania | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| 24 | Armenia | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.9 | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 25 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 0.8 | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.1 | 1 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Iceland | 2 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.6 | 1 | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 |
| 27 | Denmark | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| 28 | Liechtenstein | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | -0.3 |
| 29 | Azerbaijan | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| 30 | England | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.2 | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| 31 | Latvia | 2 | 1.4 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 32 | Belarus | 2 | 1.3 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 33 | Netherlands | 2 | 6.6 | 3 | 2.8 | 2 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| 34 | San Marino | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | 5.6 | 10 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| 35 | Finland | 2 | 4.7 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| 36 | North Macedonia | 2 | 0.6 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 | -0.7 |
| 37 | Kosovo | 2 | 3.8 | 2 | 1.9 | 3 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 38 | Faroe Islands | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.4 | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| 39 | Serbia | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 6.7 | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| 40 | Norway | 2 | 4.4 | 4 | 2.2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| 41 | Israel | 2 | 0.8 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 42 | Andorra | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 3.6 | 2 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| 43 | Moldova | 2 | 2.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| 44 | Czech Republic | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| 45 | Scotland | 2 | 1.6 | 0 | 2.1 | 3 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 46 | Cyprus | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4.2 | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 47 | Wales | 2 | 2.3 | 0 | 4.2 | 3 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| 48 | Germany | 2 | 3.1 | 1 | 3.4 | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| 49 | Poland | 2 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
| 50 | Romania | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | 6 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| 51 | Bulgaria | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| 52 | Hungary | 2 | 3.2 | 0 | 2.1 | 1 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| 53 | Georgia | 2 | 2.7 | 0 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 |
| 54 | Turkey | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | 2.8 | 5 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |