Northern Ireland xG 2026

Northern Ireland xG Questions

Are Northern Ireland overperforming their xG?

No, Northern Ireland have taken 15 points over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, within 1.09 of the 13.91 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.

What is Northern Ireland's xG per game?

Northern Ireland create 1.45 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 11.62 in all, and have scored 12 goals from those chances, 0.38 more than that xG would expect.

What is Northern Ireland's xGA per game?

Northern Ireland allow 0.84 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 6.70 in all, and have conceded 3 goals from those chances, 3.70 fewer than that xGA would expect.

Who has the most xG for Northern Ireland?

Dan Ballard has the most expected goals (xG) for Northern Ireland over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 2.06 xG in 5 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Dion Elie Raymond Charles is next with 1.91 xG.

Northern Ireland expected goals 2026: last 8

Games: 8
Expected goals (xG): 11.62
Goals scored: 12
Goals minus xG: +0.38
Expected goals against (xGA): 6.70
Goals conceded: 3
xGA minus goals conceded: +3.70
Expected points (xPts): 13.91
Points: 15
Points minus xPts: +1.09
Verdict: In line with expected goals

Are Northern Ireland overperforming their expected goals?

Northern Ireland's results and their chances agree, within 1.1 points of xPts over 8 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.

Next opponent: Ukraine expected goals

Games: 8
Ukraine xG per game: 1.16
Ukraine xGA per game: 1.42
Points minus xPts: +2.67
Verdict: Running a little hot

Northern Ireland results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
Last 8	8	11.62	12	+0.38	6.70	3	+3.70	13.91	15	+1.09
Last 5	5	6.96	10	+3.04	4.82	2	+2.82	8.16	11	+2.84
Home	4	7.16	9	+1.84	3.00	0	+3.00	7.79	10	+2.21
Away	4	4.46	3	-1.46	3.70	3	+0.70	6.12	5	-1.12

Northern Ireland expected goals match by match, last 8

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
28 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Hungary (H)	0-0	0.87	1.13	1.14	1	L
25 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Georgia (A)	0-1	1.18	1.60	1.09	3	L
18 Nov	UEFA Nations League	Luxembourg (A)	2-2	1.38	0.55	2.00	1	W
15 Nov	UEFA Nations League	Belarus (H)	2-0	2.41	0.37	2.61	3	W
15 Oct	UEFA Nations League	Bulgaria (H)	5-0	1.12	1.17	1.32	3	L
12 Oct	UEFA Nations League	Belarus (A)	0-0	1.07	0.31	2.00	1	W
8 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Bulgaria (A)	1-0	0.83	1.24	1.03	0	L
5 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Luxembourg (H)	2-0	2.76	0.33	2.72	3	W

Northern Ireland players: goals against expected goals, last 8

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Isaac Price	midfielder	8	678	1.36	4	+2.64	0.18
Patrick James Coleman McNair	defender	5	344	0.14	1	+0.86	0.04
Dan Ballard	defender	5	427	2.06	2	-0.06	0.43
Shea Emmanuel Charles	midfielder	8	707	1.11	1	-0.11	0.14
Conor Bradley	defender	6	539	1.66	1	-0.66	0.28
James Tyrrell Reid	attacker	4	121	0.76	0	-0.76	0.56
Dion Elie Raymond Charles	attacker	7	373	1.91	1	-0.91	0.46

UEFA Nations League 2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Portugal	2	3.2	3	4.2	1	2.4	6	+3.6
2	Greece	2	3.6	3	2.7	1	3	6	+3
3	Sweden	2	2.6	5	2.2	2	3	6	+3
4	France	2	2.6	2	1.9	0	3.2	6	+2.8
5	Ukraine	2	1.4	1	3.1	0	1.4	4	+2.6
6	Spain	2	3.1	7	2.1	3	3.5	6	+2.5
7	Northern Ireland	2	2	1	2.7	0	2.2	4	+1.8
8	Austria	2	4.6	6	1.7	2	4.3	6	+1.7
9	Montenegro	2	4.6	5	1.9	3	4.3	6	+1.7
10	Albania	2	4	5	1.5	0	4.5	6	+1.5
11	Slovakia	2	3.4	4	0.7	1	4.7	6	+1.3
12	Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	2.3	4	2	2	2.8	4	+1.2
13	Luxembourg	2	1.7	2	3.1	4	1.8	3	+1.2
14	Slovenia	2	2.2	2	2	0	2.9	4	+1.1
15	Republic of Ireland	2	1.3	3	2.9	1	2	3	+1
16	Switzerland	2	3.8	6	0.2	0	5.2	6	+0.8
17	Belgium	2	2.9	2	3.5	1	2.3	3	+0.7
18	Malta	1	3.3	2	0.9	1	2.6	3	+0.4
19	Croatia	2	2.6	3	2.4	5	2.8	3	+0.2
20	Italy	2	3.8	4	3.8	3	2.8	3	+0.2
21	Estonia	2	1.7	1	2.9	1	1.8	2	+0.2
22	Gibraltar	1	0.3	0	0.8	0	0.8	1	+0.2
23	Lithuania	2	2.9	3	1.4	1	3.9	4	+0.1
24	Armenia	2	2	4	1.9	3	2.9	3	+0.1
25	Kazakhstan	2	0.8	2	2.9	3	1.1	1	-0.1
26	Iceland	2	3.7	4	1.6	1	4.2	4	-0.2
27	Denmark	2	3.2	4	2.5	3	3.2	3	-0.2
28	Liechtenstein	1	0.1	0	1.6	2	0.3	0	-0.3
29	Azerbaijan	1	1.3	1	1.3	1	1.4	1	-0.4
30	England	2	3.2	4	2.2	3	3.5	3	-0.5
31	Latvia	2	1.4	0	3.1	2	1.5	1	-0.5
32	Belarus	2	1.3	0	3.1	2	1.5	1	-0.5
33	Netherlands	2	6.6	3	2.8	2	4.6	4	-0.6
34	San Marino	2	0.7	0	5.6	10	0.6	0	-0.6
35	Finland	2	4.7	7	0.5	0	4.7	4	-0.7
36	North Macedonia	2	0.6	0	4	5	0.7	0	-0.7
37	Kosovo	2	3.8	2	1.9	3	3.9	3	-0.9
38	Faroe Islands	2	2.5	2	2.4	2	2.9	2	-0.9
39	Serbia	2	2.5	2	6.7	4	0.9	0	-0.9
40	Norway	2	4.4	4	2.2	4	4	3	-1
41	Israel	2	0.8	1	4	6	1	0	-1
42	Andorra	2	1.7	1	3.6	2	2.1	1	-1.1
43	Moldova	2	2.3	1	3	3	2.3	1	-1.3
44	Czech Republic	2	1.5	1	3.7	4	1.3	0	-1.3
45	Scotland	2	1.6	0	2.1	3	2.4	1	-1.4
46	Cyprus	2	3	1	4.2	2	2.4	1	-1.4
47	Wales	2	2.3	0	4.2	3	1.6	0	-1.6
48	Germany	2	3.1	1	3.4	2	2.8	1	-1.8
49	Poland	2	2.2	1	2	3	3	1	-2
50	Romania	2	2	3	2.9	6	2.1	0	-2.1
51	Bulgaria	2	2.4	1	1.8	2	3.2	1	-2.2
52	Hungary	2	3.2	0	2.1	1	3.5	1	-2.5
53	Georgia	2	2.7	0	1.4	1	3.7	1	-2.7
54	Turkey	2	2.8	1	2.8	5	2.7	0	-2.7

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