Yes, Slovenia have taken 12 points over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 1.25 more than the 10.75 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Slovenia create 1.22 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 9.76 in all, and have scored 9 goals from those chances, 0.76 fewer than that xG would expect.
Slovenia allow 1.34 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 10.68 in all, and have conceded 9 goals from those chances, 1.68 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Benjamin Sesko has the most expected goals (xG) for Slovenia over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 4.18 xG in 6 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Zan Vipotnik is next with 1.24 xG.
Slovenia have taken 1.3 points more than their chances warranted over 8 games: -0.8 goals against their xG, and +1.7 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 8 | 8 | 9.76 | 9 | -0.76 | 10.68 | 9 | +1.68 | 10.75 | 12 | +1.25 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.59 | 5 | -0.59 | 6.27 | 5 | +1.27 | 6.65 | 8 | +1.35 |
| Home | 5 | 7.76 | 7 | -0.76 | 5.14 | 5 | +0.14 | 8.44 | 8 | -0.44 |
| Away | 3 | 2.00 | 2 | 0.00 | 5.54 | 4 | +1.54 | 2.31 | 4 | +1.69 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep | UEFA Nations League | North Macedonia (H) | 2-0 | 1.67 | 0.54 | 2.18 | 3 | W |
| 26 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Scotland (H) | 0-0 | 0.57 | 1.50 | 0.68 | 1 | L |
| 17 Nov | UEFA Nations League | Austria (A) | 1-1 | 0.65 | 2.57 | 0.36 | 1 | L |
| 14 Nov | UEFA Nations League | Norway (H) | 1-4 | 2.01 | 1.30 | 1.83 | 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | UEFA Nations League | Kazakhstan (A) | 0-1 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 1.60 | 3 | D |
| 10 Oct | UEFA Nations League | Norway (A) | 3-0 | 0.66 | 2.61 | 0.35 | 0 | L |
| 9 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Kazakhstan (H) | 3-0 | 2.40 | 0.30 | 2.65 | 3 | W |
| 6 Sep | UEFA Nations League | Austria (H) | 1-1 | 1.11 | 1.50 | 1.10 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandi Lovrić | midfielder | 5 | 171 | 0.15 | 1 | +0.85 | 0.08 |
| Benjamin Sesko | attacker | 6 | 526 | 4.18 | 5 | +0.82 | 0.72 |
| Jan Mlakar | attacker | 5 | 332 | 0.30 | 1 | +0.70 | 0.08 |
| Adam Gnezda Cerin | midfielder | 8 | 684 | 0.47 | 1 | +0.53 | 0.06 |
| Petar Stojanović | midfielder | 6 | 493 | 0.56 | 0 | -0.56 | 0.10 |
| Andraz Sporar | attacker | 5 | 274 | 0.69 | 0 | -0.69 | 0.23 |
| Zan Vipotnik | attacker | 7 | 326 | 1.24 | 0 | -1.24 | 0.34 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 2 | 3.2 | 3 | 4.2 | 1 | 2.4 | 6 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Greece | 2 | 3.6 | 3 | 2.7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 2.6 | 5 | 2.2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | +3 |
| 4 | France | 2 | 2.6 | 2 | 1.9 | 0 | 3.2 | 6 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Ukraine | 2 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.1 | 0 | 1.4 | 4 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Spain | 2 | 3.1 | 7 | 2.1 | 3 | 3.5 | 6 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | 0 | 2.2 | 4 | +1.8 |
| 8 | Austria | 2 | 4.6 | 6 | 1.7 | 2 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Montenegro | 2 | 4.6 | 5 | 1.9 | 3 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Albania | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 4.5 | 6 | +1.5 |
| 11 | Slovakia | 2 | 3.4 | 4 | 0.7 | 1 | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2 | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2.8 | 4 | +1.2 |
| 13 | Luxembourg | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 3.1 | 4 | 1.8 | 3 | +1.2 |
| 14 | Slovenia | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Republic of Ireland | 2 | 1.3 | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 | Switzerland | 2 | 3.8 | 6 | 0.2 | 0 | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 |
| 17 | Belgium | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | 3.5 | 1 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Malta | 1 | 3.3 | 2 | 0.9 | 1 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| 19 | Croatia | 2 | 2.6 | 3 | 2.4 | 5 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 20 | Italy | 2 | 3.8 | 4 | 3.8 | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 21 | Estonia | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 2.9 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.2 |
| 22 | Gibraltar | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.8 | 1 | +0.2 |
| 23 | Lithuania | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| 24 | Armenia | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.9 | 3 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 25 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 0.8 | 2 | 2.9 | 3 | 1.1 | 1 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Iceland | 2 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.6 | 1 | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 |
| 27 | Denmark | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| 28 | Liechtenstein | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | -0.3 |
| 29 | Azerbaijan | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| 30 | England | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 2.2 | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| 31 | Latvia | 2 | 1.4 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 32 | Belarus | 2 | 1.3 | 0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 33 | Netherlands | 2 | 6.6 | 3 | 2.8 | 2 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| 34 | San Marino | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | 5.6 | 10 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| 35 | Finland | 2 | 4.7 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| 36 | North Macedonia | 2 | 0.6 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 | -0.7 |
| 37 | Kosovo | 2 | 3.8 | 2 | 1.9 | 3 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 38 | Faroe Islands | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.4 | 2 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| 39 | Serbia | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 6.7 | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| 40 | Norway | 2 | 4.4 | 4 | 2.2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| 41 | Israel | 2 | 0.8 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 42 | Andorra | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | 3.6 | 2 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| 43 | Moldova | 2 | 2.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| 44 | Czech Republic | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 3.7 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| 45 | Scotland | 2 | 1.6 | 0 | 2.1 | 3 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 46 | Cyprus | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4.2 | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.4 |
| 47 | Wales | 2 | 2.3 | 0 | 4.2 | 3 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| 48 | Germany | 2 | 3.1 | 1 | 3.4 | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| 49 | Poland | 2 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
| 50 | Romania | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | 6 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| 51 | Bulgaria | 2 | 2.4 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| 52 | Hungary | 2 | 3.2 | 0 | 2.1 | 1 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| 53 | Georgia | 2 | 2.7 | 0 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 |
| 54 | Turkey | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | 2.8 | 5 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |