Iceland xG 2026

Iceland xG Questions

Are Iceland overperforming their xG?

No, Iceland have taken 11 points over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, within 0.01 of the 10.99 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.

What is Iceland's xG per game?

Iceland create 1.29 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 10.35 in all, and have scored 14 goals from those chances, 3.65 more than that xG would expect.

What is Iceland's xGA per game?

Iceland allow 1.34 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 10.71 in all, and have conceded 14 goals from those chances, 3.29 more than that xGA would expect.

Who has the most xG for Iceland?

Orri Óskarsson has the most expected goals (xG) for Iceland over their last 8 UEFA Nations League games, 2.44 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Andri Gudjohnsen is next with 2.15 xG.

Iceland expected goals 2026: last 8

Games: 8
Expected goals (xG): 10.35
Goals scored: 14
Goals minus xG: +3.65
Expected goals against (xGA): 10.71
Goals conceded: 14
xGA minus goals conceded: -3.29
Expected points (xPts): 10.99
Points: 11
Points minus xPts: +0.01
Verdict: In line with expected goals

Are Iceland overperforming their expected goals?

Iceland's results and their chances agree, within 0.0 points of xPts over 8 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.

Next opponent: Bulgaria expected goals

Games: 8
Bulgaria xG per game: 0.88
Bulgaria xGA per game: 0.86
Points minus xPts: -0.69
Verdict: In line with expected goals

Iceland results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
Last 8	8	10.35	14	+3.65	10.71	14	-3.29	10.99	11	+0.01
Last 5	5	7.50	9	+1.50	6.97	9	-2.03	7.52	7	-0.52
Home	4	5.31	7	+1.69	6.40	7	-0.60	5.03	5	-0.03
Away	4	5.04	7	+1.96	4.31	7	-2.69	5.96	6	+0.04

Iceland expected goals match by match, last 8

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
29 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Luxembourg (A)	0-3	1.86	0.35	2.43	3	W
26 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Estonia (H)	1-1	1.84	1.24	1.77	1	W
19 Nov	UEFA Nations League	Wales (A)	4-1	1.40	1.45	1.35	0	L
16 Nov	UEFA Nations League	Montenegro (A)	0-2	1.06	1.05	1.36	3	W
14 Oct	UEFA Nations League	Turkey (H)	2-4	1.34	2.88	0.61	0	L
11 Oct	UEFA Nations League	Wales (H)	2-2	1.42	1.77	1.16	1	L
9 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Turkey (A)	3-1	0.72	1.46	0.82	0	L
6 Sep	UEFA Nations League	Montenegro (H)	2-0	0.71	0.51	1.49	3	D

Iceland players: goals against expected goals, last 8

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Andri Gudjohnsen	attacker	8	629	2.15	4	+1.85	0.31
Orri Óskarsson	attacker	8	578	2.44	4	+1.56	0.38
Victor Pálsson	defender	5	395	0.51	2	+1.49	0.12
Logi Tómasson	defender	6	410	0.11	1	+0.89	0.02
Ísak Jóhannesson	midfielder	6	301	0.30	1	+0.70	0.09
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson	attacker	6	431	0.83	1	+0.17	0.17
Johann Berg Guðmundsson	attacker	6	488	0.50	0	-0.50	0.09
Mikael Egill Ellertsson	midfielder	6	383	0.68	0	-0.68	0.16
Daníel Leó Grétarsson	defender	6	540	0.90	0	-0.90	0.15

UEFA Nations League 2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Portugal	2	3.2	3	4.2	1	2.4	6	+3.6
2	Greece	2	3.6	3	2.7	1	3	6	+3
3	Sweden	2	2.6	5	2.2	2	3	6	+3
4	France	2	2.6	2	1.9	0	3.2	6	+2.8
5	Ukraine	2	1.4	1	3.1	0	1.4	4	+2.6
6	Spain	2	3.1	7	2.1	3	3.5	6	+2.5
7	Northern Ireland	2	2	1	2.7	0	2.2	4	+1.8
8	Austria	2	4.6	6	1.7	2	4.3	6	+1.7
9	Montenegro	2	4.6	5	1.9	3	4.3	6	+1.7
10	Albania	2	4	5	1.5	0	4.5	6	+1.5
11	Slovakia	2	3.4	4	0.7	1	4.7	6	+1.3
12	Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	2.3	4	2	2	2.8	4	+1.2
13	Luxembourg	2	1.7	2	3.1	4	1.8	3	+1.2
14	Slovenia	2	2.2	2	2	0	2.9	4	+1.1
15	Republic of Ireland	2	1.3	3	2.9	1	2	3	+1
16	Switzerland	2	3.8	6	0.2	0	5.2	6	+0.8
17	Belgium	2	2.9	2	3.5	1	2.3	3	+0.7
18	Malta	1	3.3	2	0.9	1	2.6	3	+0.4
19	Croatia	2	2.6	3	2.4	5	2.8	3	+0.2
20	Italy	2	3.8	4	3.8	3	2.8	3	+0.2
21	Estonia	2	1.7	1	2.9	1	1.8	2	+0.2
22	Gibraltar	1	0.3	0	0.8	0	0.8	1	+0.2
23	Lithuania	2	2.9	3	1.4	1	3.9	4	+0.1
24	Armenia	2	2	4	1.9	3	2.9	3	+0.1
25	Kazakhstan	2	0.8	2	2.9	3	1.1	1	-0.1
26	Iceland	2	3.7	4	1.6	1	4.2	4	-0.2
27	Denmark	2	3.2	4	2.5	3	3.2	3	-0.2
28	Liechtenstein	1	0.1	0	1.6	2	0.3	0	-0.3
29	Azerbaijan	1	1.3	1	1.3	1	1.4	1	-0.4
30	England	2	3.2	4	2.2	3	3.5	3	-0.5
31	Latvia	2	1.4	0	3.1	2	1.5	1	-0.5
32	Belarus	2	1.3	0	3.1	2	1.5	1	-0.5
33	Netherlands	2	6.6	3	2.8	2	4.6	4	-0.6
34	San Marino	2	0.7	0	5.6	10	0.6	0	-0.6
35	Finland	2	4.7	7	0.5	0	4.7	4	-0.7
36	North Macedonia	2	0.6	0	4	5	0.7	0	-0.7
37	Kosovo	2	3.8	2	1.9	3	3.9	3	-0.9
38	Faroe Islands	2	2.5	2	2.4	2	2.9	2	-0.9
39	Serbia	2	2.5	2	6.7	4	0.9	0	-0.9
40	Norway	2	4.4	4	2.2	4	4	3	-1
41	Israel	2	0.8	1	4	6	1	0	-1
42	Andorra	2	1.7	1	3.6	2	2.1	1	-1.1
43	Moldova	2	2.3	1	3	3	2.3	1	-1.3
44	Czech Republic	2	1.5	1	3.7	4	1.3	0	-1.3
45	Scotland	2	1.6	0	2.1	3	2.4	1	-1.4
46	Cyprus	2	3	1	4.2	2	2.4	1	-1.4
47	Wales	2	2.3	0	4.2	3	1.6	0	-1.6
48	Germany	2	3.1	1	3.4	2	2.8	1	-1.8
49	Poland	2	2.2	1	2	3	3	1	-2
50	Romania	2	2	3	2.9	6	2.1	0	-2.1
51	Bulgaria	2	2.4	1	1.8	2	3.2	1	-2.2
52	Hungary	2	3.2	0	2.1	1	3.5	1	-2.5
53	Georgia	2	2.7	0	1.4	1	3.7	1	-2.7
54	Turkey	2	2.8	1	2.8	5	2.7	0	-2.7

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