Eighteen previews are live for Sunday 18 October, from a Premier League card of four games to Serie A, La Liga, the Bundesliga, the Brasileirão and MLS. Five player bets stand out on our model, three on shots and two on fouls, and the first of them is a Leeds defender in the 2pm game at Elland Road. Prices were taken this morning and can move before kick-off.
Everything below comes from our Player Props board and the model's projections, and the rule holds: we only name a selection the model rates above its price. The hit rates quoted are match statistics for each player's last six games.
James Justin 1+ shots at 8/15 with Ladbrokes and Coral is 73 percent against an implied 65, and he has done it in five of his last six games, with a high of three.
Leeds are 7th on 9 points and have the meanest defence in the Premier League at 0.83 goals a game, while Manchester United are 13th on 6 and average 5.33 shots on target a game, the 2nd most. Leeds v Manchester United is previewed here.
Nordi Mukiele 1+ shots at 8/13 with Ladbrokes and Coral is 69 percent against an implied 62. He has done it in five of his last six games, with a high of four, twice.
Bournemouth are 18th on 3 points, Sunderland 17th on 4, and both won in the Europa League on Thursday. Bournemouth v Sunderland has its own preview.
Jacobo Ramón 1+ fouls at 8/15 with Ladbrokes and Coral is 77 percent against an implied 65. He has committed a foul in five of his last six games, with a high of four.
Fiorentina are 19th on 4 points, Como 8th on 11, and Como's 6.67 shots on target a game is the 2nd most in Serie A. Fiorentina v Como is previewed here.
Matthias Ginter 1+ shots at 5/6 with Ladbrokes and Coral is 65 percent against an implied 54. He has done it in five of his last six games, with a high of four.
Bundesliga leaders Freiburg go to Leverkusen, who won 4-0 at Lech Poznań on Thursday and have won their last four games. Leverkusen v Freiburg has a preview too.
Ozan Kabak 2+ fouls at 6/4 with Midnite is 58 percent against an implied 40. He has done it in four of his last six games, with a high of five.
Gladbach are bottom with no points and Hoffenheim are 17th on 3, and Hoffenheim have scored and conceded in every league game this season. Gladbach v Hoffenheim is previewed here.
Today's Daily Acca has two slips: an English double of Bournemouth and Manchester United at around 5/1, and a European four-fold of Udinese, Osasuna, Leverkusen and Lyon at around 10/1. Saturday's two five-folds both missed, the English one two legs short and the European one a leg short after Villarreal's 0-0 draw with Elche, so the season stands at 20 winners from 90 and +8.27pts.
Every price on the card is rated against our projection model. A bet makes this page only when the model puts it clearly above the chance the price implies and the player's recent games back it up. The hit rates quoted are match statistics, not settled bets. The full boards are on the Player Props page, and the Bet Builder Tips page builds the same reads into same-game slips.
James Justin 1+ shots at 8/15, Nordi Mukiele 1+ shots at 8/13, Jacobo Ramón 1+ fouls at 8/15, Matthias Ginter 1+ shots at 5/6 and Ozan Kabak 2+ fouls at 6/4. Our model rates each one above the chance its price implies, and each player has cleared the line in at least four of his last six games.
Leeds v Manchester United, Bournemouth v Sunderland and Brighton v Crystal Palace kick off at 2pm UK, and Nottingham Forest v Arsenal follows at 4:30pm.
James Justin of Leeds has had a shot in five of his last six games and Nordi Mukiele of Sunderland has done the same, with a high of four.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.