Juventus host Lazio at Juventus Stadium on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 7:45pm UK, and the table makes it an odd one: the visitors are 2nd on 16 points from six games, while Juventus are 7th on 11. Lazio are unbeaten, with five wins and a draw, but our model still leans towards the home side, who have kept a clean sheet in half of their league games and lead Serie A for corners.
Lazio's league form reads like a title challenger's. They have won five and drawn one of their six, scoring 11 and conceding 4, and they carry the 4th most goals per game in the division at 1.83. Their latest outing was a 3-1 home win over Monza on 11 October, and before that came a 2-0 win at Venezia. The one draw came against AC Milan, 2-2. Behind the goals sits a tight defence: Lazio concede 0.67 a game, the 3rd fewest in the league, and have kept clean sheets in 50% of their matches.
Juventus are 7th in the Serie A table with three wins, two draws and a defeat, and their numbers are almost a mirror image on the defensive side: 0.83 conceded a game, the 4th fewest, and the 2nd highest clean-sheet rate in the league at 50%. Going forward they create plenty, with the 3rd most shots on target at 6.5 a game, and they take more corners than anyone, 8.67 a game. Their last league game was a 1-1 draw at Cagliari, and on Thursday they won 2-1 at Celta in the Europa League. Before that came a 5-0 win over NEC Nijmegen and a 2-0 win over Atalanta. The one league defeat so far was 3-2 at Sassuolo.
Only 17% of Juventus's league games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd lowest rate in the division. Lazio's rate is 50%.
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Çelik, Kalulu, Bremer, LucumÃ; Sarr, Douglas Luiz, McKennie; Nico González, Conceição, Kolo Muani
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Mandas; Floriani Mussolini, Provstgaard, Doekhi, Tavares; Belahyane, Taylor, Frattesi; Isaksen, Noslin, Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni is the stand-out name. He has had two or more shots in six straight games, averaging three a game, and that run ranks 3rd in Serie A. Ladbrokes have him at 1.80 to make it seven. He has also made a tackle in each of his last six, at 1.20 with bet365.
For Juventus, Randal Kolo Muani has had a shot in six straight games, 2.2 a game, and Francisco Conceição matches him on both counts. Pape Matar Sarr has had a shot in each of his last five games.
On the defensive side, Bremer has made a tackle in six consecutive games at 1.7 a game, and Lazio's Romano Floriani Mussolini has made two or more tackles in five straight, averaging 2.6, with bet365 at 1.62.
We back Juventus, and the best price is 1.70 at midnite. Lazio are 5.25 at bet365 and the draw is 3.90 at Ladbrokes. For the player markets, Zaccagni at 1.80 for two or more shots and Floriani Mussolini at 1.62 for two or more tackles both come with six and five-game runs behind them.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus win | 1.70 (midnite) | 59% |
| Draw | 3.90 (Ladbrokes) | 25% |
| Lazio win | 5.25 (bet365) | 16% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (bet365) | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 45% |
Our model expects 1.72 goals from Juventus and 0.77 from Lazio, and 1-0 is the likeliest scoreline at 13%. 2-0 and 1-1 are right behind it, so a draw is in play, but Juventus are the clear favourites and we make it a narrow home win. Prediction: Juventus 1-0 Lazio.