Osasuna welcome Racing Santander to Estadio El Sadar on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 1pm UK, in a La Liga game between two sides on the same 8 points from 8 matches. It is also a collision between a defence that leaks and an attack that scores: Racing have the most goals conceded in the division, and Osasuna have the 2nd most.
Both teams are in the bottom half and both are short of wins, with two apiece.
Osasuna are 16th, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats. They have scored 8 and shipped 18, and they have lost four of their last five. The most recent was a 5-2 defeat at Betis on 11 October, and before that came a 1-1 home draw with Rayo. Going back a little further, they lost 4-0 at Atlético and 0-2 at home to Espanyol. Osasuna's goals against average of 2.25 a game is the 2nd most in the league, and their 1.00 goals for is the 6th fewest. They do keep clean sheets at a decent rate for a side in this form: 25%, the 7th highest.
Racing Santander are 15th on the same 8 points, with 13 scored and 23 conceded. Their last five read a 3-2 loss at Rayo, a 2-1 home win over Alaves, a 7-2 loss at Barcelona, a 5-0 loss at Celta and then a 2-2 draw with Valencia last time out. They concede 2.88 a game, the most in La Liga, and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Their 1.63 scored per game is the 5th most.
That mix makes Racing's games noisy: 75% of their matches have seen both teams score, the 3rd highest, and 88% have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest in the division. Our model has a goal at each end at 66%. In the La Liga table only a place separates them, and neither is clear of the drop zone.
Osasuna possible starting lineup:
Aitor Fernández; Arguibide, Catena, Santos, Bretones; Torró, Moncayola, Moi Gómez; Rubén García, Dubasin, Budimir
Racing Santander possible starting lineup:
Agirrezabala; Mantilla, Ramón, Salinas, Belocian; Sainz-Maza, Almeida, Martín; Canales, Vicente, Zabiri
Yassir Zabiri is the man to start with. He has committed a foul in eight straight games, the longest run of its kind in the league, and he has had a shot in six in a row at 2.8 a game. He is 1.17 at bet365 for a foul and 1.04 for a shot.
Abel Bretones has fouled in eight straight games and is 1.40 at bet365, while Iñigo Arguibide has done so in seven straight and is 1.25.
Jon Moncayola has made a tackle in eight straight games, averaging 2.1, and is 1.13 at bet365. On the other side, Álvaro Mantilla has tackled in seven straight at 2.1 a game and is 1.08.
We back Osasuna to win at El Sadar, available at 2.00 with bet365. The model gives them a 50% chance, with a draw at 23% and a Racing win at 27%. Racing are 3.70 at bet365 and the draw is 3.80 at Coral.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna win | 2.00 (bet365) | 50% |
| Draw | 3.80 (Coral) | 23% |
| Racing Santander win | 3.70 (bet365) | 27% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 65% |
We expect 1.97 goals from Osasuna and 1.40 from Racing, and 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Osasuna the more likely winner. 2-1 is close behind at 9% and 2-0 comes next, and we give Osasuna a 25% chance of a clean sheet. Racing have not kept one all season, and both teams to score is a 66% chance.
The player markets are where the interest lies. Zabiri and Bretones have both committed a foul in eight straight games, and Moncayola has made a tackle in eight straight. Prediction: Osasuna 1-1 Racing Santander.