AC Milan welcome Atalanta to the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 5pm UK, in a Serie A game between an unbeaten home side and a visitor that has just found its feet again. Milan sit 6th without a defeat in six league games. Atalanta are 10th and arrive off back-to-back wins after losing three on the spin.
Milan have the league's 4th-best defence, conceding 0.83 a game, while Atalanta have been involved in plenty of goals at both ends.
AC Milan have 12 points from six games, with three wins and three draws, 11 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their 1.83 goals a game is the 4th most in Serie A. A 1-1 draw at Sassuolo on 11 October was followed by a 4-0 win at Salzburg in the Europa League on Thursday, and before that came a comfortable 3-0 home win over Lecce. The 2-2 draw at Lazio in September shows they can concede away from home, and they lost 0-2 to Benfica in Europe.
Atalanta have 9 points from six, with three wins, three defeats and a goal difference of zero (8 for, 8 against). The run was ugly for a spell: a 2-1 loss at Roma, a 2-1 home defeat to Cagliari and a 2-0 loss at Juventus. They have since beaten Venezia 3-1 in Serie A and Pafos 3-1 in the Conference League.
Both sides have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, which is the 5th highest rate in the division, and Atalanta's games have gone over 2.5 goals 67% of the time. Milan's own figure is 50%.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Estupiñán, De Winter, Gila, Pavlović; Rabiot, Modrić, Chukwueze; Pulisic, Moreira, Ramos
Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Carnesecchi; Zappacosta, Kristensen, Kolasinac, Bernasconi; Pašalić, Éderson; Samardžić, De Ketelaere, Rowe; Krstović
Koni De Winter has made at least one tackle and committed at least one foul in six straight games. He averages 2 tackles and 1.8 fouls a game and is 1.25 to tackle at bet365 and 1.44 to foul at Ladbrokes.
Strahinja Pavlović is the other Milan defender with a tackle in six straight games, averaging 2.7, and he has had a shot on target in three in a row at 4.00 with bet365. Our model also likes him for fouls and shots.
Nikola Krstović has had a shot in four straight games, averaging 2.5, and has hit the target in each of his last five, with four in the most recent. He is 1.53 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Jonathan Rowe has had three or more shots in three consecutive games and is 3.00 at bet365 to make it four.
Diego Moreira has put a shot on target in three straight, at 2.20 with bet365.
We back AC Milan, who are 1.80 with Ladbrokes to win. Our model gives them a 48% chance, with the draw at 27% and Atalanta at 25%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 1.80 (Ladbrokes) | 48% |
| Draw | 3.80 (bet365) | 27% |
| Atalanta win | 4.50 (bet365) | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 50% |
We project 1.59 goals for Milan and 1.10 for Atalanta. 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Milan more likely to win, and a draw is in play. Our prediction is AC Milan 1-1 Atalanta.
For a bet builder, Krstović for a shot on target (1.53), Gonçalo Ramos for a shot on target (1.29), Gianluca Gaetano for a tackle (1.29) and De Winter for a foul (1.22) combine at 3.11. Each of the four has landed in all of his last five games, so every leg has recent form behind it.