Grêmio host Cruzeiro at the Arena do Grêmio on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a Campeonato Brasileiro game that pits a side in the bottom three against one in the top six. Grêmio are 18th of 20 on 31 points from 30 games, while Cruzeiro sit 6th on 48 and arrive off a heavy defeat at Bragantino.
The gap in the league table is 17 points,, and Cruzeiro are the favourites, but a draw is firmly in play.
Grêmio have drawn their last three: a goalless home draw with Palmeiras, a 1-1 at Remo and a 1-1 with Internacional last Sunday. Before that came two defeats, 3-2 at Botafogo and 2-1 against Vasco at home.
Across the season they have won 7, drawn 10 and lost 13, scoring 32 and conceding 40. Their goals average of 1.07 a game is the 4th fewest in the division, and they also have the 3rd fewest shots on target at 3.63 a game. They are the 2nd most carded side in the league, at 2.87 a game.
Cruzeiro have won three of their last five, but the most recent game was a 4-2 loss at Bragantino on Tuesday, five days after a 2-0 home win over São Paulo. Before that they won 3-1 at Vitória.
They have won 14 and lost 10 of their 30, scoring 46 and conceding 44. Their goals-for average of 1.53 a game is the 5th most in the league, and 5.23 shots on target a game is the 5th most. Matches involving them are open: both teams have scored in 70% of their games, the 2nd highest rate in the division, and 67% have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest.
Grêmio possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Caito, Kannemann, Gustavo Martins, Marlon; Villasanti, Danilo Barbosa, Krovinovic; Pavón, Carlos Vinícius, Amuzu
Cruzeiro possible starting lineup:
Otávio Costa; William, Jonathan Jesus, João Marcelo, Gabriel Rojas; Zé Lucas, Gerson; Keny Arroyo, Matheus Pereira, Bruno Rodrigues; Kaio Jorge
Keny Arroyo has had at least one shot in 18 straight games for Cruzeiro, averaging 2.7 a game, the 4th-longest such run in the competition. He is 1.04 at bet365 for a shot here.
Matheus Pereira has managed two or more shots in seven in a row and averages 3.4 a game. Ladbrokes offer 1.25 on him to make it eight.
Jonathan Jesus has made two or more tackles in seven straight games, averaging 3.6 a game. He is 1.91 at bet365 to reach two again.
For Grêmio, Filip Krovinovic has had a shot in seven consecutive games, averaging 1.9, and is 1.11 at bet365. Marlon has made a tackle in 11 straight games, averaging 2.9 a game.
Diego Caito has had a shot in each of his last five and is 1.30 for another, while Gustavo Martins has done the same and is 1.36.
We back Cruzeiro to win, and the best price on the away side is 2.45 at bet365. Our model gives them a 45% chance, against 28% for a Grêmio win and 27% for the draw.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Grêmio win | 2.90 (Ladbrokes) | 28% |
| Draw | 3.50 (Ladbrokes) | 27% |
| Cruzeiro win | 2.45 (bet365) | 45% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (Midnite) | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (bet365) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 53% |
The model expects 1.22 goals from Grêmio and 1.58 from Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro's 70% both-teams-to-score rate and the model's 57% for it point to goals at both ends.
1-1 is the likeliest score at 13%, though we make Cruzeiro more likely to win than Grêmio, and a draw is very much in play. Our prediction is Grêmio 1-1 Cruzeiro.