Udinese host Lecce at the Dacia Arena on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 11:30 UK, in a Serie A meeting between two sides who have both lost four of their opening six. Udinese are 15th with 4 points; Lecce are 13th with 6.
We make Udinese the likelier winners at 51%. Ekkelenkamp and Lennon Miller on the Udinese side and Danilo Veiga for Lecce carry the best player runs.
Udinese have lost four league games in a row. The latest was a 2-1 defeat at Torino, which followed a 1-0 home loss to Cagliari and a wild 5-3 loss at Inter. Their only league win this season came before that run, and the 2-1 Coppa Italia win over Venezia is the last time they won anything.
The goals have come, but so have plenty at the other end. Udinese have scored 9 and conceded 13 in six, and their goals record is the 8th most in the division per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches, the 3rd highest rate in Serie A. They also commit the 8th most fouls and collect the 4th most cards.
Lecce arrive off a 2-1 home defeat to Bologna, and before that came a 3-0 loss at AC Milan, a 3-2 win over Monza, a 1-0 loss at Cagliari and a 4-0 beating by Roma. They have scored 6 and conceded 12, and they manage the 6th fewest goals per game.
Lecce's games rarely see both teams score: 33% of their matches, the 3rd lowest rate in the league, and they have kept a clean sheet in 17% of them. They also give away the 3rd most fouls and collect the 3rd most cards.
Udinese possible starting lineup:
Okoye; Bertola, Solet, Ebosse; Vojvoda, Karlström, Miller, Kamara; Ekkelenkamp, Chakvetadze; Davis
Lecce possible starting lineup:
Falcone; Veiga, Siebert, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo; Coulibaly, Maleh, Ngom; Pierotti, Fatah, Geubbels
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp (Udinese) has had two or more shots in six straight games, averaging 3.2 a game, and he is 1.50 at Ladbrokes to make it seven.
Lennon Miller (Udinese) has committed two or more fouls in five straight games, averaging 2.4, again the best run in the division. He is 2.30 at Ladbrokes for another two.
Danilo Veiga (Lecce) has made three or more tackles in three straight games and averages 4.3 a game. He has also fouled in six straight games and is 1.57 at bet365 to make three tackles again.
Santiago Pierotti (Lecce) has fouled at least once in six in a row, averaging 1.7, and Tiago Gabriel has made two or more tackles in four straight at 2.3 a game, priced at 1.25 at bet365 to carry on.
Amar Fatah (Lecce) has had a shot in four straight and has put one on target in four of his last five, which makes him 1.67 at bet365 for a shot on target here.
We back Udinese to win at 1.85 with bet365, and the model gives them 51% against 27% for the draw and 22% for a Lecce win. The interest is in the player markets, where Ekkelenkamp's six games of two-plus shots stand out; he has had five or more shots twice in his last five. A four-leg combination of Ekkelenkamp two or more shots, Veiga a foul, Miller a foul and Fatah a shot on target comes to 4.60 with the best prices.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese win | 1.85 (bet365) | 51% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Coral) | 27% |
| Lecce win | 4.33 (bet365) | 22% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (bet365) | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 (bet365) | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 72% |
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make Udinese clearly more likely to win the game, and 1-0 and 2-0 to the hosts are the next two most likely scorelines. A draw is in play, but the model projects Udinese for 1.54 goals to Lecce's 0.93.