Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Predictions, Team News and Betting Tips

Cincinnati and Columbus Crew meet at TQL Stadium on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 10pm UK. Cincinnati sit 9th in the Eastern Conference on 36 points, Columbus Crew are 13th on 32, and Cincinnati's goals-against record points to goals at both ends.

Cincinnati have scored 60 and conceded 68 in 28 games. That is the 3rd most goals scored per game in the league and the 2nd most conceded.

How the teams arrive

Cincinnati have drawn four of their last ten and lost four. Their latest result was a 2-3 home defeat to New England on Wednesday, which came four days after a 3-1 win at Atlanta. Before that came a 3-1 loss at CF Montréal, a 2-2 draw at Houston and a 3-3 home draw with Charlotte. They have scored in all five of those games and conceded in all five.

The numbers back that up. Cincinnati's goals average 2.14 a game, they have kept a clean sheet in only 7% of matches (the 3rd lowest), and both teams have scored in 79% of their games, the highest rate in the division. They also average 5.96 shots on target, the 3rd most.

Columbus Crew have won four of their last ten and lost six, but they come in with momentum. They beat Charlotte 3-1 on Wednesday, lost 3-2 at Orlando City before that, after wins of 2-1 over Inter Miami and 2-0 at CF Montréal. Their 44 goals scored and 47 conceded in 29 games sit mid-table.

The Crew are more orderly at the back, with a clean sheet in 17% of games (the 14th highest) and 1.62 goals conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 72% of their matches, the 6th highest rate in the league, and 72% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals. They also commit fewer fouls and collect fewer cards than most: their 1.76 cards a game is the 6th fewest.

Predicted lineups

Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Louro; Smith, Hadebe, Malatini; Anunga, Bucha, Echenique; Evander, Valenzuela; Barlow, Denkey

Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Schulte; Moreira, Zawadzki, Amundsen; Farsi, Chambost, Habroune; Méndez, Zaroury, Rodríguez; Martínez

Players to watch

• Kévin Denkey has had two or more shots on target in four straight games, the longest run of that kind in the league, and he is 2.15 at Ladbrokes to do it again.
• Tom Barlow has put a shot on target in five games in a row and has had a shot in each of those five too. He is 1.40 at bet365 for a shot on target.
• Santiago Rodríguez has had a shot in seven straight games for Columbus, averaging 3.1 a game, and he has made a tackle in each of those seven as well.
• Brais Méndez has had a shot on target in each of his last five and made at least one tackle in six straight, and he is 1.40 at bet365 for a shot on target.
• Anass Zaroury has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, with a high of nine in one of them, and 2+ shots is 1.53 at bet365.

Match Leaders

Odds and Statz prediction

We back Cincinnati, who are 2.35 at bet365 to win. Columbus Crew are 2.57 and the draw is 3.90. Our model gives Cincinnati a 44% chance of winning, Columbus Crew 32% and a draw 24%.

We expect 1.91 goals from Cincinnati and 1.62 from Columbus Crew, and our prediction is Cincinnati 1-1 Columbus Crew. A draw is in play, though we make Cincinnati the likelier winners, with 2-1 the next most likely score. Both teams to score is 1.33 at bet365 and we rate it 69%, a figure that fits two sides who score and concede regularly.

For a bet builder, Brais Méndez for a shot on target (1.40), Tom Barlow for a shot on target (1.40), Taha Habroune for a shot (1.07) and Anass Zaroury for two or more shots (1.53) come to 3.21. Habroune has had a shot in each of his last five and averages 1.2 a game.