Celta de Vigo host Deportivo Alavés at Abanca-Balaídos on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 3:15pm UK. It is the best defence in La Liga against a visitor sitting two places higher in the table, and both sides come into it having dropped points.
Celta are 9th on 8 points from 8 games and have conceded just six times. Alavés are 7th on 11 points and have scored 12. Celta's defensive record is the best in the division.
Celta have drawn five of their eight league games, with one win, a 5-0 over Racing in September, and two defeats. Their La Liga table position is 9th, and the numbers behind it are built on the back line: they concede 0.75 goals a game, the fewest in the division, and have kept a clean sheet in half of their matches, the 2nd highest rate.
The attack is the other side of the coin. Celta score 1 goal a game, the 6th fewest, and put away just 3.25 shots on target a game, the 4th fewest. Only 25% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd lowest rate.
Their last week was mixed. They drew 0-0 at Elche on 11 October, then lost 2-1 at home to Juventus in the Europa League on Thursday. Before that came a 1-0 defeat at Omonia, also in Europe, and the 5-0 win over Racing.
Alavés have won three, drawn two and lost three, and score 1.5 goals a game, the 8th most in the league. They concede 1 a game, the 4th fewest. Their last five league games brought one win, one draw and three defeats, including a 2-1 loss to Atlético last Saturday and a 1-0 home defeat to Valencia. The best result in that run was a 5-2 win over Osasuna in early September.
Alavés commit 13.25 fouls a game, the 7th most in the league, while Celta commit 12.13, the 8th fewest.
Celta de Vigo possible starting lineup:
Radu; Núñez, Lago, Alonso, Galán; Moriba, Febas, Rueda; Álvarez, Aspas, Jutglà
Deportivo Alavés possible starting lineup:
Sivera; Koski, Valentini, Tenaglia, Otto; Blanco, Rebbach, Suárez; Ibáñez, Martínez, Boyé
Nahuel Tenaglia has made at least one tackle in eight straight games, averaging 2.1, and is 1.08 at bet365 to keep that going. His team-mate Jonny Otto has a run of seven straight with the same average.
Lucas Boyé has committed two or more fouls in six consecutive games, averaging 2.7 a match. That is the longest run of its kind in La Liga, and he is 1.29 for another.
For Celta, Marcos Alonso has fouled in six straight games and made two or more tackles in each of his last four, with a 2.00 price on that tackle run continuing. Ilaix Moriba has a tackle in five in a row at 2.8 a game, and he is 1.08 to extend it.
Iago Aspas has had at least one shot in five straight games, averaging 1.2 a game. He is 1.05 for another.
We back Celta de Vigo to win, with our model giving them a 43% chance at 2.20 with bet365. The draw is 3.40 and Alavés 3.40.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Celta win | 2.20 (bet365) | 43% |
| Draw | 3.40 (bet365) | 29% |
| Alavés win | 3.40 (bet365) | 28% |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 (bet365) | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 (bet365) | 44% |
Our projection is 1.37 goals for Celta and 1.06 for Alavés. We predict 1-1, though we make Celta the likelier winner overall, and a draw is clearly in play. A 1-0 home win is the next most likely score, at 11% against 14% for 1-1.
This looks like a low-scoring afternoon: Celta's games have gone over 2.5 goals only 25% of the time, and we give this one a 44% chance of getting there. Alavés' foul count is the clearest lean: they average 14.2 fouls in our projection to Celta's 10.9, and Ferran Jutglà has fouled in six straight at 1.40. A bet builder of Alonso 1+ tackles (1.22), Jutglà 1+ fouls (1.40), Álvaro Núñez 1+ fouls (1.50) and Boyé 1+ tackles (1.22) comes to 3.13, with the first three each having done it in all of their last five and Boyé in four of five.