Bahia host Flamengo at Arena Fonte Nova in the Campeonato Brasileiro on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 10:30pm UK. It sets the league's best attack against a home side that has won four of its last six in the competition. Flamengo lead the table on 64 points from 30 games, 15 clear of 5th-placed Bahia, and they arrive with the most goals scored and the 2nd-best defensive record in the division.
Flamengo are 1st on 64 points, with 19 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats from 30. They score 1.93 goals a game, the most in the league, and concede 0.83, the 2nd fewest. Their league position is built on that defence: they have kept a clean sheet in 43% of games, the highest rate in the division.
Their last five were a mixed run in two competitions. They drew 0-0 away at Estudiantes in the Copa Libertadores on Friday, after beating Fluminense 1-0 at home in the league. Before that came a 2-2 draw at Santos. Across their last ten they have won six and drawn four, with no defeats.
Bahia are 5th on 49 points from 30 games (13 wins, 10 draws, 7 defeats), with 44 goals scored and 36 conceded. They keep a clean sheet in 30% of games, the 5th highest rate in the league, and they commit fouls at the 4th-highest rate. They won 1-0 against Mirassol last Sunday after a 1-0 loss at Palmeiras and a 2-1 defeat at Athletico PR. Before that they beat Remo 2-1 and won 3-2 at Bragantino.
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Ronaldo; Marcos Victor, David Duarte, Marco Moreno, Luciano Juba; Jean Lucas, Nicolás Acevedo; Erick Pulga, Rodrigo Nestor, Cristian Olivera; Alejo Veliz
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Rossi; Varela, Ortiz, Pereira, Alex Sandro; Pulgar, Jorginho; Carrascal, Paquetá, Lino; Pedro
Pedro has had at least one shot in 22 straight games, averaging 2.7 a game, and that run is the 2nd longest in the competition. He is 1.03 at midnite to extend it.
Samuel Lino has put two or more shots on target in four straight games and has had three or more shots in each of those four. The 3+ shots market is 1.80 at bet365 and 2+ on target is 3.50.
Alejo Veliz has had a shot in 11 straight games, averaging 2.8. He has also committed a foul in seven in a row and is 1.67 at bet365 to make it eight.
Erick Pulga has had a shot in eight straight games at 2.4 a game, and is 1.18 at bet365 to keep it going.
Nicolás Acevedo has committed a foul in eight straight games, averaging two a game, and is 1.11 at bet365.
We back Flamengo to win, and the best price on them is 2.05 at bet365. Our model gives them a 41% chance, against 32% for Bahia and 27% for a draw.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bahia win | 3.50 (bet365) | 32% |
| Draw | 3.75 (coral) | 27% |
| Flamengo win | 2.05 (bet365) | 41% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (ladbrokes) | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (bet365) | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 (bet365) | 54% |
1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Flamengo more likely to win. We project 1.53 goals for Flamengo and 1.31 for Bahia, which is why both teams to score is a 58% chance in our numbers. A draw is in play.
The player markets are where the runs are. Pedro and Veliz both carry long shot streaks, and Veliz's 1+ fouls price of 1.67 stands out against the others. Bahia's Marcos Victor has made at least one tackle in each of his last five games and is 1.30 at bet365, while Flamengo's Alex Sandro has done the same and is 1.20.
Our prediction: Bahia 1-1 Flamengo.