Real Madrid and Sevilla meet at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 8pm UK. It is 4th against 5th in La Liga, only four points apart, and Madrid arrive with the second-best attack in the division against a Sevilla side whose games see both teams score 75% of the time.
Madrid have 18 points from eight games, Sevilla 14. Madrid have scored 19 goals and conceded 8, while Sevilla have scored 13 and let in 12.
Real Madrid have won eight of their last ten in all competitions, and the latest was a wild one: a 4-3 win at Roma in the Champions League on Wednesday. Before that came a 1-0 home win over Villarreal. Their league defeats include a 2-1 loss at Atlético on 20 September. They also took a 3-2 win at Elche and a 4-1 home win over Rayo in September.
The numbers behind it are strong. Madrid average 2.38 goals a game, the 2nd most in the league, and their 7.13 shots on target a game are also the 2nd most. They have conceded 1 a game, the 4th fewest, and they win the ball cleanly: 8.38 fouls a game is the fewest in La Liga.
Sevilla are less settled, and the latest result was a 3-3 draw at Levante. Before that a 3-1 home defeat to Barcelona came after 1-0 wins at Deportivo and at home to Valencia.
Both teams to score has landed in 75% of Sevilla's games, the 3rd highest rate in the league, and their fouls average of 14.75 a game is the 2nd most. They also collect 3.5 cards a game, the 2nd most. At the other end they manage 4.25 shots on target a game and 3.13 corners, the 4th fewest.
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Konaté, Rüdiger, Carreras; Tchouaméni, Valverde; Güler, Bellingham, Diomande; Mbappé
Sevilla possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Iglesias, Salas, Castrín, Suazo; Agoumé, Kochorashvili, Fofana; Fernández, Ure
Kylian Mbappé has had a shot in eight straight games and averages 5.5 a game over that run, which is the 2nd-longest shooting streak in La Liga. Vinicius Junior has the longest, also eight games, at 2.9 shots a game.
Arda Güler has had a shot in seven in a row and is 1.06 at bet365 to make it eight. Ibrahima Konaté has committed a foul in six straight games and is 1.22 at bet365.
For Sevilla, Youssouf Fofana has made two or more tackles in four straight games, averaging 2.8, and is 1.25 at bet365. Juan Iglesias has made two or more tackles in four in a row too, at 4 a game. Kike Salas has a tackle in each of his last six, and our model rates him likelier to have a shot than his 2.20 price suggests, with two or more shots at 7.00.
We back Real Madrid to win at 1.25 with Ladbrokes. Sevilla are 11.00 and the draw is 7.00 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 1.25 (Ladbrokes) | 72% |
| Draw | 7.00 (bet365) | 18% |
| Sevilla win | 11.00 (Ladbrokes) | 10% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (bet365) | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 62% |
Our model projects 2.41 goals for Madrid and 0.80 for Sevilla, and 2-0 is the likeliest scoreline at 12%, ahead of 3-0, 2-1 and 1-0. We predict Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla. We give Madrid a 45% chance of a clean sheet and over 2.5 goals a 62% chance.
The interest is in the player markets. Jude Bellingham has had two or more shots in each of his last five games and is 1.30 at bet365.