Bayer 04 Leverkusen welcome SC Freiburg to the BayArena on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 14:30 UK. It is a meeting between the side in 4th place and the one in 1st: Freiburg are unbeaten and have conceded just four goals in five league games.
Leverkusen have the numbers at home to answer that. They score freely, win corners in bunches and arrive on the back of a 4-0 win in Poland on Thursday night.
Freiburg lead the Bundesliga on 13 points from five games, with four wins and a draw. Their defence is the story: 0.8 goals conceded per game is the fewest in the league, and they have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches. They have also scored 14, so this is not a side grinding out 1-0s. They beat Gladbach 5-0 at home on 12 September and drew 2-2 at Frankfurt a week later, their only dropped points. Last weekend they beat Schalke 2-1 and on Thursday they got past Jablonec 3-2 in the Europa Conference League. Eight wins and a draw from their last ten is a serious run.
Leverkusen sit 4th on 10 points, with three wins, a draw and a defeat, and a goal difference of plus six. They average 2.8 goals a game, the 3rd most in the league, and put 6.4 shots on target a game, the 4th most. Only one side wins more corners per game. Their recent results are strong: a 2-0 win over RB Leipzig, a 4-3 away win at Mainz on 10 October and then the 4-0 victory at Lech Poznań. They have won their last four games.
The goals at the back are the question mark for the hosts: 1.6 conceded per game is the 7th fewest, which is decent but a long way from Freiburg's mark. Both sides have gone over 2.5 goals in 80% of their games, the 5th highest rate in the division.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Quansah, Tapsoba, Medina, Gutiérrez; Andrich, GarcÃa; Diaby, Maza, Moreira; Schick
SC Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Backhaus; Treu, Ginter, Lienhart, Makengo; Eggestein, Engelhardt; Scherhant, Beste, Grifo; Matanovic
Patrik Schick has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 3.6 a game, and is 1.22 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Ibrahim Maza has had a shot in five straight games, also at 3.6 a game.
For Freiburg, Igor Matanovic has had a shot on target in five straight games, 1.44 at bet365, and has had at least two shots in all five, at 3.4 a game.
Maximilian Eggestein has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 2.2 attempts, and is 1.40 at Ladbrokes to keep it going. Derry Scherhant has both shot and committed a foul in each of the last five, and averages 2.6 shots a game.
We back Leverkusen at 1.70 with bet365, with our model giving them a 56% chance of winning. Freiburg are 4.33 and the draw is 4.20.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Leverkusen win | 1.70 (bet365) | 56% |
| Draw | 4.20 (bet365) | 22% |
| Freiburg win | 4.33 (bet365) | 22% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 68% |
We predict a 2-1 home win, with Leverkusen projected at 2.18 goals and Freiburg at 1.32. A 1-1 draw is a near-identical shout, so a draw is in play. Goals look likely either way: we give both teams to score a 66% chance and make over 2.5 goals a 68% shot.
On the player markets, Schick at 1.22 for a shot on target leads the Leverkusen picks. Matanovic and Eggestein both have five-game shooting runs for Freiburg, so shots from both ends are worth a look. Our projections also rate Loïc Badé at 1.80 and Miguel Gutiérrez at 1.50 as the likeliest Leverkusen players to commit a foul.