Leeds United welcome Manchester United to Elland Road on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 14:00 UK. Both clubs have drawn three of their six Premier League games so far, with Leeds in 7th on 9 points and Manchester United in 13th on 6. The home side have the meanest defence in the division, while the visitors have been among the busiest attacks in terms of shots on target and corners.
Leeds have conceded just 5 goals in 6 league games, which works out at 0.83 a game and is the fewest in the division. They have kept a clean sheet in a third of their matches, the 7th highest rate. Their last outing was a 2-1 defeat at Arsenal on 10 October, and before that came a 0-0 draw with Palace and a 4-1 win over Newcastle. The Carabao Cup was less kind, with a 6-3 loss at Chelsea.
The flip side is that Leeds do not create a huge amount. Their 3.83 shots on target a game is the 5th fewest in the league, and only a third of their games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Manchester United have scored 9 and conceded 9, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet in the league. They average 5.33 shots on target a game, the 2nd most in the division, and 6.67 corners, also the 2nd most. Results have not followed: they drew 1-1 with Spurs on 10 October and 1-1 at Fulham before that, then lost 2-0 at Atlético in the Champions League on Tuesday. A 0-1 home loss to Man City and a 3-2 Carabao Cup defeat to Brighton are the other two defeats in their last five.
Both teams to score has landed in 67% of each side's league games, the 4th highest rate in the division.
Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Trafford; Bogle, Muharemović, Elvedi, Gudmundsson; Ampadu, Stach, Tanaka; Okafor, Calvert-Lewin, Justin
Manchester United possible starting lineup:
Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Yoro, MartÃnez; Tielemans, Baleba; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Amad Diallo; Cunha
Bryan Mbeumo has had a shot on target in six straight games, the longest such run in the division, and he is 1.61 at Ladbrokes to make it seven. He has also had two or more shots in each of those six, and that is 1.36 at Ladbrokes.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has hit the target in five straight, averaging 1.6 a game, and 1.33 at bet365 is the price for him to do it again. He has also committed a foul in six straight games.
Anton Stach has made two or more tackles in six in a row, averaging 2.7, and is 1.4 at bet365 to go again.
Bruno Fernandes has had at least one shot in six straight games, averaging 3.3 a game, and Matheus Cunha has done the same at 2.3 a game.
One for the foul markets: Lisandro MartÃnez is 1.5 for a foul, and our model rates him one of the likeliest in the game to commit one.
We make Manchester United the narrow favourites at 39% to win, ahead of Leeds on 35% and the draw on 26%. The best prices are 2.38 on Leeds at BoyleSports, 3.70 on the draw at Coral and 3.00 on Manchester United at BoyleSports.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds United win | 2.38 (BoyleSports) | 35% |
| Draw | 3.70 (Coral) | 26% |
| Manchester United win | 3.00 (BoyleSports) | 39% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (bet365) | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 57% |
We expect 1.45 goals from Leeds and 1.54 from Manchester United. 1-1 is the likeliest score at 12%, though we make Manchester United slightly more likely to win, so our prediction is a 1-1 draw with a visiting win just as plausible. Both teams to score is the stronger goals angle, with each side having seen it land in two-thirds of their league games.
For the fixture, the shots-on-target picks around Mbeumo and Calvert-Lewin lead the way, both on runs of at least five games.