Fluminense host Santos at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 20:00 UK, in a Campeonato Brasileiro fixture between the 4th and 8th-placed sides. Goals at both ends are the story here: Santos have the highest both-teams-to-score rate in the division at 73%, and Fluminense are 2nd on 70%.
Fluminense sit 4th on 51 points from 30 games, with 14 wins, 9 draws and 7 defeats, and a goal difference of plus 11 (48 scored, 37 conceded). Their league position is built on getting shots away: they average the most shots on target in the division, 5.7 a game, and their goals-against figure is the 8th fewest.
The last week has been bruising. They lost 1-2 at home to Palmeiras in the Copa Libertadores on 15 October and went down 1-0 at Flamengo four days earlier. Before that came a 4-0 win over Coritiba and a 3-1 win at Corinthians, so the group is capable of big results. They have lost their last two, and won two of the four before that.
Santos are 8th on 42 points, with 11 wins, 9 draws and 10 defeats, and 46 goals scored against 45 conceded. They score freely, with the 5th most goals in the league, but they also concede the 5th most, and 67% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate in the division. They are the most-booked side too, at 3.33 cards a game.
Their latest outing was a 2-1 defeat at Atlético-MG on 11 October, preceded by a 2-2 home draw with Flamengo. Before that they won 2-1 at São Paulo and 2-1 at Remo. Their goals have come in every one of those four games.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Fábio; Samuel Xavier, Ignácio, Millán, Renê; Nonato, Hércules; Canobbio, Acosta, Soteldo; Castillo
Santos possible starting lineup:
Diógenes; Rodinei, Veríssimo, Luan Peres, Gustavo Henrique; Oliva, Bontempo; Barreal, Neymar, Everton; Gabriel Barbosa
Neymar is the headline name. He has had a shot on target in eight straight games, averaging 2 a game across that run, and has taken two or more shots in seven in a row, averaging 4.4. A shot on target is 1.44 at Ladbrokes.
Gabriel Barbosa has found the target in six straight games and averages 1.7 shots on target a game. Bet365 make it 1.57 for another.
On the Fluminense side, Ignácio has had a shot in six consecutive games despite playing at centre-back. The model also rates him well for a shot here, at 1.50 with Ladbrokes.
Renê has committed a foul in seven straight games and is 1.36 at Midnite for another. At the other end, Luan Peres has made a tackle in nine in a row, averaging 2.4, and is 1.20 at bet365.
We back Fluminense at 2.20 with bet365, a home win we put at 48%. Santos are 3.20 and the draw is 3.50.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Fluminense win | 2.20 (bet365) | 48% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 27% |
| Santos win | 3.20 (bet365) | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 (bet365) | 54% |
We predict 1-1, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, so a draw is in play, though we make Fluminense the more likely winners. 2-1 to the hosts is next at 10%. We project 1.66 goals for Fluminense and 1.16 for Santos, which fits a game where both sides tend to score.
For players, Santos' shooters carry the interest. Neymar and Gabriel Barbosa have both had a shot on target in six straight games, and our four-leg Santos combination of those two, Gabriel Bontempo for a shot and Rodinei for a tackle comes to 3.43 at the best prices.