Borussia Mönchengladbach host TSG Hoffenheim at Stadion im Borussia-Park on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 16:30 UK, with the bottom two in the Bundesliga going head to head. Gladbach sit 18th of 18 with no points from five games. Hoffenheim are 17th with a single win. Both sides ship goals freely.
Gladbach have conceded 18 in five league games, the most in the division, while Hoffenheim have let in 13. Neither has a clean sheet to its name this season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have lost all five league games and sit 18th on 0 points, with 7 scored and 18 conceded. It is five straight defeats now. The most recent was a 2-1 loss at Köln on 11 October, and before that came a 4-3 home defeat to Mainz. They also lost 5-0 at Freiburg, 4-3 at home to Elversberg and 3-0 at RB Leipzig.
At the back they concede 3.6 a game, the most in the league, and every one of their five games has gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate in the division. They also take cards: 3.4 a game is the most in the Bundesliga, and their 14.4 fouls a game is the 2nd most. Their 6.6 corners a game is the 4th most.
TSG Hoffenheim are 17th on 3 points, with 9 scored and 13 conceded. Their league form has been poor too, losing 2-3 to Hamburg at home last weekend and 3-1 at Paderborn before that. Their one league win this season was 2-1 over Stuttgart on 12 September. In Europe they lost 3-2 to BeÅŸiktaÅŸ on Thursday. They have scored and conceded in all five league games, the highest both-teams-to-score rate in the division.
Hoffenheim score 1.8 a game, the 9th most, and concede 2.6, the 5th most. They also win a lot of corners, 6.8 a game, the 3rd most. For a pair stuck at the foot of the Bundesliga table, the gap that matters is a small one: 3 points and one place.
Borussia Mönchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Nicolas; Hashioka, Chiarodia, Diks, Scally; Uno, Sander, Ullrich; Hack, Bolin, Lidberg
TSG Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Coufal, Rots, Kabak, Machida; Avdullahu, Burger; Conté, Daghim, Lemperle; Asllani
Philipp Sander has committed a foul in five straight games, averaging 2.6 a game, and is 1.50 at Ladbrokes to do it again. Lukas Ullrich has had a shot in four straight games, 1.5 a game, and is 1.57 at bet365 to make it five.
For Hoffenheim, Ozan Kabak has fouled in five straight games at 2.4 a game and is 1.33 at Midnite to extend the run. Tim Lemperle has had a shot in each of his last four, averaging 3.3 a game, and Wouter Burger has had at least one shot in each of his last five, averaging 2.4 a game, at 1.33 with bet365.
VladimÃr Coufal has made at least one tackle in five straight games, 1.4 a game.
We back Hoffenheim, who are 2.10 at Ladbrokes to win, and our model gives them a 43% chance against 33% for Gladbach and 24% for the draw. Gladbach are 3.10 at bet365 and the draw is 4.00 at the same book.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Gladbach win | 3.10 (bet365) | 33% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 24% |
| Hoffenheim win | 2.10 (Ladbrokes) | 43% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (Coral) | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 66% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 (bet365) | 86% |
Our prediction is Gladbach 1-1 Hoffenheim, the likeliest single score at 10%, though we make Hoffenheim slightly more likely to win, and a draw is in play. Both teams scoring is a 67% shot in our model, which fits a Gladbach side that has gone over 2.5 goals in all five games and a Hoffenheim side that has had both teams score in every league game so far. We project 1.58 goals for Gladbach and 1.83 for Hoffenheim, with 5.0 and 5.3 shots on target respectively.
A four-leg player combination on the card pairs Burger to have a shot at 1.33, Daiki Hashioka to make a tackle at 1.20, Kabak to commit a foul at 1.11 and Sander to commit one at 1.40, for a combined 2.48. Each has hit in every one of his last five.