Brighton & Hove Albion host Crystal Palace at The American Express Community Stadium on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 14:00 UK time. The hosts have scored more goals per game than anyone in the Premier League and have kept a clean sheet in four of their six, while Palace arrive with a leaky defence and Thursday's trip to Lyon behind them.
Brighton are 3rd in the Premier League table on 13 points from six games, with four wins, a draw and a defeat. They have scored 18 and conceded just 5. Per game, that is 3.00 goals for, the most in the division, and 0.83 against, the fewest. They also lead the league for shots on target at 5.5 a game.
The form is just as strong across competitions. Brighton have won seven of their last ten, the last five in a row, and the latest was a 4-0 win over Žalgiris in the Europa Conference League on Thursday. Before that came a 2-0 win at Sunderland, a 3-0 home win over Arsenal and a 5-0 win at Coventry.
Palace sit 12th with 7 points from six, having won two, drawn one and lost three, with 9 scored and 12 conceded. They concede two goals a game on average, the 6th most in the league, and they have kept a clean sheet in only one of six. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games, the 4th highest rate in the division.
Their last five have been uneven. A 3-2 defeat at Lyon on Thursday followed a 3-1 home win over Forest. Before that came a 0-0 draw at Leeds, a 4-0 win over Lech Poznań and a 3-2 home defeat by Ipswich. Palace average just 2.83 corners a game, the 2nd fewest in the league.
Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup:
Verbruggen; Kadıoğlu, Vuskovic, Dunk, Boscagli; Groß, Chema Andrés, Gómez, Ayari; De Cuyper, Kostoulas
Crystal Palace possible starting lineup:
BenÃtez; Richards, Canvot, Lerma, Mitchell; Wharton, Timber, Khalaili; Kamada, Pino, Strand Larsen
Charalampos Kostoulas has had at least one shot in six straight games, averaging 2.3 a game, and that run is the longest in the division. He has also committed a foul in five in a row and is 1.25 for a foul at bet365.
Pascal Groß has committed a foul in six straight games, averaging two a game, and is 1.53 at bet365 to do it again. He has also had a shot in five straight.
Yasin Ayari has had two or more shots in five consecutive games and is 1.53 at bet365 to make it six.
For Palace, Adam Wharton has made a tackle in six straight games, averaging two, and is 1.10 at bet365. Anan Khalaili has tackled in six straight too, at 3.7 a game.
We back Brighton to win, and Coral have them at 1.55. We give them a 61% chance, with the draw at 21% and a Palace win at 18%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 1.55 (Coral) | 61% |
| Draw | 4.50 (bet365) | 21% |
| Palace win | 6.00 (BoyleSports) | 18% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 (Ladbrokes) | 64% |
We expect Brighton to score 2.2 goals and Palace 1.12. Our predicted score is 2-1 to Brighton, and a 1-1 draw is in play, just behind it. We make both teams scoring a 60% chance and rate a clean sheet at 33% for Brighton and 11% for Palace.
For a bet builder, the shortlist is Pascal Groß for a shot at 1.07, Maxim De Cuyper for a tackle at 1.33, Chema Andrés for a foul at 1.29 and Kostoulas for a foul at 1.25. That combines at 2.29 and every leg has landed in each of his last five games.