Nottingham Forest host Arsenal at The City Ground on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 4:30pm UK. Forest are 15th on 5 points from six games, Arsenal 2nd on 15, and the gap shows in the numbers on both sides of the ball.
Arsenal have conceded fewer goals per game than anyone in the league. Forest have scored the 3rd fewest. That is why our model leans so firmly towards the visitors.
Forest have taken 5 points from six, with one win, two draws and three defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 8. The Premier League table has them 15th. They come in off a 3-1 loss at Palace on 11 October, and before that a 0-1 home defeat to Coventry. The one bright spot was a 2-1 win at Villa on 12 September, which followed a goalless draw with Spurs and a 2-2 draw at Liverpool.
The attack is the problem. Forest average 0.83 goals a game, the 3rd fewest in the league, and 3.83 shots on target, the 5th fewest. They are also among the more physical sides: 13.83 fouls a game is the 3rd most, and their 2.5 cards a game is the 5th most.
Arsenal sit 2nd with 5 wins and 1 defeat from six, 10 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their only league loss was a 3-0 at Brighton on 19 September. Since then they have beaten Leeds 2-1 at home and, on Tuesday, Lille 3-0 in the Champions League. They also won 4-2 at Ipswich in the Carabao Cup, and opened the run with a 2-0 win at Sunderland.
Defensively they are the benchmark: 0.83 goals against a game is the fewest in the division, and they have kept a clean sheet in half their league games, the 2nd highest rate. They also average 5 shots on target, the 5th most.
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Sels; Aina, Murillo, Diomande, Williams; Muñoz, Schlager, McAtee; Gibbs-White, Ndoye, Delap
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel Magalhães, Calafiori; Rice, Lewis-Skelly; Saka, Ødegaard, Madueke; Havertz
Bukayo Saka has had a shot on target in six straight games, and has managed two or more shots in each of them, averaging 2.8 a game. He is 1.40 at Ladbrokes for the shot on target.
Kai Havertz matches the six-game run of shots on target, at 1.2 a game, and is 1.62 at bet365 to extend it.
Riccardo Calafiori has had at least one shot in six straight games, averaging 1.5, and is 1.36 at Ladbrokes to make it seven.
For Forest, Neco Williams has made at least one tackle in six straight games, at 2.5 a game, while Daniel Muñoz has had a shot in five in a row and is 1.67 at Ladbrokes to keep that going.
We back Arsenal to win, and bet365 have them at 1.62. Our model gives them a 57% chance of the win, with a draw at 26% and a Forest win at 17%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Forest win | 5.75 (bet365) | 17% |
| Draw | 3.90 (bet365) | 26% |
| Arsenal win | 1.62 (bet365) | 57% |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 (bet365) | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 43% |
We predict a 1-0 Arsenal win, with Forest expected to score 0.78 goals to Arsenal's 1.62. A draw is in play, though: 1-1 is the second most likely scoreline, and we give Arsenal a 46% chance of a clean sheet.
The interest is in the player markets. Muñoz has had a shot in five straight games and is 1.50 at bet365 for one more. Calafiori is 1.30 for a shot. Konsa has fouled in each of his last five games and is 1.57 at bet365 to do it again. Michael Oliver, the referee, has averaged 3 yellow cards across his five games this season.