Fiorentina host Como at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 2pm UK, and the table makes it look lopsided. Fiorentina are 19th with 4 points from 6 games and have conceded 14 goals. Como are 8th on 11 points, and Nico Paz has had at least three shots in six straight games.
Fiorentina have won once in six, and the run-in has been messy. They lost 2-1 at Genoa on 10 October, and drew 1-1 with Napoli before that. Before that came a 3-0 Coppa Italia win over Pisa, and on 11 September they won 4-2 at Venezia. They sit 19th in the Serie A table.
The defence is the problem. Fiorentina's goals record shows 2.33 conceded per game, the 3rd most in the league, and 83% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest. They do create chances: 5.17 shots on target per game is the 8th most.
Como arrive from a busy week. They lost 3-2 at Feyenoord in the Champions League on Wednesday, three days after a 0-0 home draw with Roma. Before that came a 2-0 defeat at Frosinone, and a 2-1 home win over Parma. In September they beat RB Leipzig 4-1.
Como's league numbers are healthier: 1.5 goals scored per game (8th most), 1 conceded (6th fewest), and a shots-on-target average of 6.67, the 2nd most in Serie A. They also win the 2nd most corners at 7.67 a game.
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
De Gea; Jiménez, Drăgușin, Ranieri, Valdepeñas; Fagioli, Oulaï, Ndour; Mastantuono, Beto, Gnonto
Como possible starting lineup:
Butez; Couto, Chalobah, Ramón, Valle; Da Cunha, Milla; RodrÃguez, Paz, Baturina; Douvikas
Nico Paz (Como). Paz has had 3+ shots in six straight games and averages 5.2 a game, the best run in the division. He is 1.44 at Ladbrokes for 3+ shots.
Franco Mastantuono (Fiorentina). Mastantuono has put a shot on target in five straight games and is 1.50 at bet365 to do it again.
Radu Drăgușin (Fiorentina). Drăgușin has committed a foul in six straight games and is 1.53 at bet365 for 1+. He is 3.50 for 2+.
Anastasios Douvikas (Como). Douvikas has had a shot in six straight and averages 2.7.
Nicolò Fagioli (Fiorentina). Fagioli has had a shot in five in a row, and 2+ fouls is 2.75.
We back Como, who are 2.05 at bet365 to win. Fiorentina are 3.50 at bet365 and the draw is 3.75 at midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 3.50 (bet365) | 27% |
| Draw | 3.75 (midnite) | 26% |
| Como win | 2.05 (bet365) | 47% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 53% |
Our prediction is Fiorentina 1-1 Como, with a draw very much in play, though we make Como the likelier winner. We project 1.17 goals for Fiorentina and 1.63 for Como, and the model puts both teams scoring at 56%, with Como keeping a clean sheet 31% of the time. Fiorentina have yet to keep a clean sheet this season, while Como have the 2nd best shots-on-target average in Serie A at 6.67 a game.
The player markets are where the interest lies. Paz has cleared three shots in six straight games and Mastantuono has had a shot on target in five straight.