Málaga host Real Sociedad at Estadio La Rosaleda on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 5:30pm UK, in a game between the side propping up the La Liga table and a Sociedad team sitting 6th. Málaga are 20th of 20 with four points from eight games and have yet to win. Sociedad arrive off a Europa League draw on Thursday.
Málaga have drawn four and lost four, scoring just four goals while conceding 13. Their last five league games read: a 0-0 with Levante, a 1-1 at Celta, a 1-3 home defeat to Villarreal, a 1-0 loss at Getafe and, most recently, a 1-1 draw with Espanyol. Goals are the problem. At 0.5 a game they have the 2nd fewest in the division, and they average the 3rd fewest shots on target at 2.63 a game.
Real Sociedad have won four, drawn one and lost three, with 12 goals scored and 15 conceded. They were beaten 3-0 by Atlético at home, lost 2-1 to Bournemouth in the Europa League, then won 3-2 at Valencia and 3-2 at home to Deportivo before drawing 1-1 at Union SG on Thursday night. They average 1.5 goals a game, the 8th most, and 5 shots on target, the 6th most. Defensively they are leaky: 1.88 conceded per game is the 7th most in the league.
That leakiness points to goals. Sociedad have gone over 2.5 in 75% of their league games, the 4th highest rate, while Málaga have managed it in only 25%. Both teams to score has landed in 63% of Sociedad's games and 50% of Málaga's.
Málaga possible starting lineup:
Herrero; Puga, Calero, Garrido, Recio; Rafa Rodríguez, Martínez, Lorenzo; Larrubia, Muñoz; Chupe
Real Sociedad possible starting lineup:
Remiro; Fort, Martín, Sarr, Gómez; Herrera, Soler; Barrenetxea, Sucic, Zakharyan; Guedes
David Larrubia has made a tackle in eight straight games, averaging 2.8 a game. Carlos Puga has committed a foul in seven straight and made a tackle in six straight, while Rafa Rodríguez has had a shot in five straight games, averaging two a game and priced at 1.10 at Ladbrokes.
For Sociedad, Gonçalo Guedes has had a shot in seven straight games at 1.7 a game and is 1.06 at Ladbrokes. Sergio Gómez has made a tackle in eight straight games. Ander Barrenetxea has had a shot in five straight and is 1.18 at bet365.
Our model also rates Carlos Dotor as the second likeliest player on the pitch to land a shot on target, and he is 4.50 at bet365 to do it. He has committed a foul in four straight games.
We back Real Sociedad, who are 2.15 at bet365 to win, with the model giving them a 39% chance. Málaga are 3.40 and the draw 3.50, and we put those at 35% and 26%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga win | 3.40 (bet365) | 35% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 26% |
| Real Sociedad win | 2.15 (bet365) | 39% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (bet365) | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 56% |
We predict a 1-1 draw. It is the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make Sociedad slightly more likely to win the game. Our projection has 1.41 goals for Málaga and 1.50 for Sociedad, and we give both teams to score a 60% chance.
Carlos Soler has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.33 at bet365 for one more.