AFC Bournemouth host Sunderland at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 14:00 UK, and it is a game between two sides stuck near the bottom. Bournemouth are 18th on 3 points from six games without a win, and Sunderland are 17th on 4 points, so whoever takes the three points climbs away from the bottom.
Both clubs won in the Europa League on Thursday, Bournemouth beating Sturm Graz 3-0 and Sunderland winning 2-1 at Torreense.
AFC Bournemouth have drawn three and lost three of their six league games, with 7 goals scored and 13 conceded. The latest of those defeats was a 5-1 loss at Chelsea on 10 October, and before that came a 0-1 home defeat to Liverpool and a 2-2 draw with Brentford. On Thursday they beat Sturm Graz 3-0 in the Europa League.
Their games are rarely quiet. Both teams have scored in 83% of Bournemouth's league matches, the highest rate in the division, and they have the 5th most shots on target per game, at 5. They have also conceded the 3rd most goals per game, at 2.17, and are yet to keep a clean sheet this season.
Sunderland sit one place and one point above them in the Premier League table, with one win, one draw and four defeats and a goal difference of minus 6. They lost 0-2 at home to Brighton last time out in the league, and 5-3 away at Man City before that. Their 2-1 win at Torreense on Thursday was a welcome change.
Sunderland score less often, with the 6th fewest goals per game at 1.00, and only a third of their league games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 5th lowest rate. Bournemouth's matches have cleared that line in 67% of cases, the 3rd highest rate.
AFC Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Petrovic; Smith, Hill, Silva, Truffert; Adams, Christie; Brooks, Tavernier, Rayan; Evanilson
Sunderland possible starting lineup:
Roefs; Hume, Danso, Mukiele, Mandava; Xhaka, Sadiki; Angulo, Le Fée, Fofana; Isidor
Adrien Truffert has made two or more tackles in six straight games, averaging 3.3 a game, the longest such run in the division. He is 1.25 at bet365 to keep it going.
Nordi Mukiele has made three or more tackles in four straight games for Sunderland, averaging 3.5, which also leads the division for that run. He has had at least a shot in each of his last five games too, and is 1.44 at bet365 to do so again.
Marcus Tavernier has made at least one tackle in six consecutive games, at 1.36 with bet365, while Trai Hume has a tackle in each of his last five and averages 2.6 a game.
Wilson Isidor has committed at least one foul in four straight games, and is 1.40 at bet365 to make it five.
We back AFC Bournemouth to win, and bet365 have them at 2.10. Sunderland are 3.60 at bet365 and the draw is 3.50 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth to win | 2.10 (bet365) | 50% |
| Draw | 3.50 (Ladbrokes) | 25% |
| Sunderland to win | 3.60 (bet365) | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (Midnite) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 56% |
Our projection is 1.74 goals for Bournemouth against 1.19 for Sunderland. We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single score, though we make Bournemouth the likelier side to win, and a draw is in play. A 2-1 home win is next at 10%, just behind the 12% for 1-1.
Both teams to score is the market that fits Bournemouth's season best: it has landed in five of their six league games, and the model puts it at 58%.