The League Two Season So Far: Every Team Ranked on the Numbers

Seven games into League Two season is enough to stop calling things a small sample and start reading them. Below is the division ranked on what teams are actually doing rather than what the table has given them for it, with every figure taken from our League Two stats page, which covers league games only and updates as the season goes. The underlying expected-goals numbers behind much of it live on our League Two xG table.

Two numbers frame the rest. Swindon Town have taken 3.8 points more than their underlying numbers say they should have; Port Vale have 4.8 fewer. That is the widest the table has been stretched in either direction.

The clearest single case is York City. They lead League Two for shots at 16.86 a game and for shots inside the box at 11, and they are converting 11 per cent of them. They sit 7th.

Attacking threat

Ranked on the volume and the quality of what each side creates.

York City lead League Two for shots at 16.86 a game, and take 11 of them inside the box. They are scoring 1.86 a game from that, a conversion rate of 11 per cent.

Grimsby Town carve out 4.43 big chances a game, the most in League Two, and convert 19.4 per cent of them. Charles Vernam of Grimsby Town leads the division's players with 6 big chances created.

Chesterfield generate 2.07 expected goals a game and are scoring 1.43, which puts them 0.64 a game behind what their chances have been worth. Expected goals weight every shot by how often a chance of that type is scored, so it describes the quality of what a side is creating rather than how the finishing has gone.

Grimsby Town win 7.43 corners a game. They also hit 22.14 crosses a game, 7th of 24 in the division, which is usually the same story told twice: sides that attack down the flanks force more of both.

Chesterfield take 11.29 shots inside the box a game, 69.3 per cent of their total. Shot location is the single biggest driver of chance quality, so this table tends to describe who is creating properly rather than shooting on sight.

Defending

Fewest is best in every table below.

Shrewsbury Town concede the fewest shots in League Two at 9.86 a game. Opponents are converting 15.9 per cent of them, which still leaves 1.57 goals against a game and a goals-conceded rank of 21st of 24 - a reminder that a good defence and a good goals-against column are not the same thing.

Shrewsbury Town give up 0.97 expected goals a game, the best figure in League Two. They are actually conceding 1.57, which is 0.6 a game more than the chances against them have been worth - the kind of gap that usually closes.

Chesterfield concede 3.29 corners a game, fewest in the division and have kept 2 clean sheets in 7. Corners conceded is a decent proxy for how much sustained pressure a side absorbs.

Northampton Town concede 1 big chances a game, and opponents are putting away 71.4 per cent of the ones they get. A big chance is one a striker is expected to score, so this is the table that matters most at the defensive end.

Bristol Rovers allow 6 shots inside their own box a game, and 60 per cent of the shots they face come from there. Keeping opponents outside the area is most of defending.

Possession and play style

How each side plays, rather than how well.

York City play 530.86 passes a game at 82.3 per cent completion, with 62.6 per cent of the ball. Volume and possession usually travel together; completion rate is what separates keeping the ball from moving it forward.

Salford City hit 24.43 crosses a game, of which 5.86 find a teammate - an accuracy of 24 per cent. A high cross count with a low accuracy is often a side with no other way through.

Accrington Stanley commit 17.14 fouls a game, the most in League Two, and pick up 3.14 yellow cards a game for it. A high foul count usually means a side that presses hard or breaks play up deliberately. Tyler Walton of Accrington Stanley leads the division's players at 3.87 fouls per 90 minutes.

Swindon Town make 22.86 tackles a game, and 33 tackles and interceptions combined. Billy Kirkman of Swindon Town makes the most of any player in the division at 6.57 per 90 minutes.

The players

Minimum 270 minutes for the shooting and creating tables, so a player needs roughly three full games to appear.

Charlie McCann of Cheltenham Town leads League Two with 6 goals from 16 shots, against an expected goals figure of 2.52 - 3.48 more than those chances were worth.

Kabongo Tshimanga of Barnet leads for assists with 4, from 11 chances created and 3 of those big ones. Assists depend on someone else finishing, which is why chances created is the steadier measure of a creator.

Charlie Caton of Accrington Stanley has taken 27 shots, more than anyone in League Two, hitting the target with 11 and scoring 5 - a conversion rate of 18.5 per cent.

Charles Vernam of Grimsby Town has created 6 big chances, the most in League Two, which have so far produced 2 assists. The gap between those two numbers is finishing, not creation.

What the table is hiding

Expected points take every chance a side has created and conceded and ask what a league table would look like if those chances had been taken at an average rate. The gap between that and the real table is the part of the season that has not been earned - in either direction.

None of this says the over-performers are about to collapse or that the under-performers are about to win six in a row. Finishing is a real skill and some sides out-run their numbers for a whole season.

What we can say is what we have measured. Across 1,245 fixtures we tested both halves of this idea. Sides whose results were running more than half a goal a game ahead of what their chances deserved went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than the model rated them - a real, usable correction. Sides running the same distance behind beat their rating by only 0.8 points, which is close enough to nothing to ignore. So the tradeable half of this table is fading the teams it is flattering, not backing the ones it is punishing. That asymmetry is the single most useful thing on this page.

FAQs

Which League Two team creates the most chances? York City lead for shots at 16.86 a game and shots inside the box at 11. Grimsby Town lead for big chances created at 4.43 a game.

Which League Two team has the best defence? Shrewsbury Town concede the fewest expected goals at 0.97 a game and the fewest shots at 9.86, after 7 games.

Who is League Two top scorer this season? Charlie McCann of Cheltenham Town with 6 goals. Kabongo Tshimanga of Barnet leads for assists with 4.

Which League Two teams are over-performing? Swindon Town have 3.8 points more than their chances deserve; Port Vale have 4.8 fewer. Our own testing says the tradeable side of that gap is fading the over-performers rather than backing the under-performers.