The reckoning first. Last weekend's eight bets came back five winners and four losers, which sounds respectable and is not: the column lost 0.96pts on the round, because Sheffield Wednesday drew 0-0 with Wigan and took the Weekend Double down with them. Southampton, Middlesbrough, Barnet and the goals at Plymouth and York all landed. Bolton against Cardiff finished 1-0. The ledger now stands at -2.53pts after five weeks, 23 winners from 42 bets.
This week's coupon has a shape I have not seen all season. Pull the Statz acca sheet for the three EFL divisions, sort it, and the result market is close to barren: almost every home side and away side on the card is priced shorter than the model rates them. The goals markets are a different story, and they are where five of this week's six bets live. When the sheet says that, you follow it rather than manufacture a result bet to look balanced.
The tie of the round in the second tier, and a fixture that carries a warning label for anyone thinking about backing a defence. West Ham have played six matches since the end of August and those six have produced twenty-seven goals: 6-0 against Wrexham, 4-2 against Wolves, 3-0 against Derby, a 3-2 win at Bolton, a 1-1 draw at Watford and a 3-2 cup defeat to Fulham. Five of the six went past two and a half.
Millwall arrive with exactly the same profile from the other direction. Five of their last six have cleared the same line, and they have conceded in five of six: 2-2 at Middlesbrough, 3-1 down at Blackburn, 5-1 beaten at Southampton, 3-0 beaten at home by Wrexham, and a 4-0 of their own against Bolton. Between the two clubs, ten of the last twelve matches have brought three goals or more.
The model makes it 62.5 per cent, and The Den at lunchtime is not where either of these sides suddenly remembers how to defend. The bet: over 2.5 goals at 1.62 - full match stats here.
Burnley have not kept a clean sheet in five attempts, and both teams have scored in every one of those five. Sixteen goals in total, a 4-1 beating at Norwich, a 3-1 defeat at Swansea, and three matches they led or levelled without ever looking like shutting the door. For a side with promotion ambitions it is the one number that should worry them.
Derby are the complication. They have scored in only two of their last five and lost four of them, so the instinct is to call this a tight afternoon. The results say otherwise: three of those five still finished with three goals or more, because Derby keep conceding two and three at the other end. A visiting side that cannot score but cannot defend either is the ideal guest at a ground where the hosts leak.
The bet: over 2.5 goals at 1.91 - full match stats here.
Peterborough have been involved in fifteen goals across their last five matches and have swung between extremes doing it: 3-3 with Barnsley, 4-0 beaten at Blackpool, then 0-0 with Stevenage in between. It is not a settled team, and unsettled teams are good business in the goals markets.
Doncaster bring sixteen goals from their own last five and both teams have scored in four of them - 2-3 at home to Plymouth, 1-1 with Notts County, 2-2 at Stevenage, 1-3 against Middlesbrough in the cup. Two sides averaging over three goals a game between them, at a ground where Peterborough have already served up a 3-3. The model has it at 64.1 per cent, the strongest number on the League One card.
The bet: over 2.5 goals at 1.60 - full match stats here.
This is the one result bet that survived the sort, and it survived because Oxford are playing the best football in the division right now. Eighteen goals in five matches, every one of those five past two and a half, a 4-0 win at Leicester and a 3-0 at home to Burton last time out. They have scored at least twice in four of five.
Cambridge have won three of five themselves, so this is no gimme, but they have conceded in four of those five and the two they lost were both by a single goal to sides in the top half. Oxford at home, against a team that concedes, at better than evens is the shape of bet this column is meant to find.
The bet: Oxford United to win at 2.05 - full match stats here.
Chesterfield played out a 3-3 with Barnet a fortnight ago and have averaged three goals a game across their last five, winning at Oldham and losing at Rotherham along the way. They are involved in football matches, which is more than can be said for several of their neighbours in this division.
York put four past Swindon last weekend without reply and have averaged 3.2 goals a game over the same period, with both teams scoring in four of five. A 3-2 defeat at Cheltenham, a 2-1 win over Exeter, a pair of 1-1s. The League Two card offered one call worth making this week and this is it; the rest of the division priced up too short to touch.
The bet: over 2.5 goals at 1.70 - full match stats here.
The double takes the two strongest goals calls on the sheet, one from each of the bottom two divisions: over 2.5 in Peterborough against Doncaster at 1.60, and over 2.5 in Chesterfield against York at 1.70. Both kick off at three o'clock, both involve two teams averaging three goals a game or better, and neither needs a specific result to land - only that somebody turns up and plays.
1.60 multiplied by 1.70 gives 2.72, or around 7/4 with bet365 at the time of writing. One point, as always.
What are the best Championship bets this weekend? From the Statz model's coupon: over 2.5 goals in Millwall v West Ham United at 1.62 and over 2.5 goals in Burnley v Derby County at 1.91, both bet365 at the time of writing.
What are the best League One and League Two bets this weekend? Over 2.5 goals in Peterborough United v Doncaster Rovers at 1.60 and Oxford United to beat Cambridge United at 2.05 in League One, plus over 2.5 goals in Chesterfield v York City at 1.70 in League Two.
What is the EFL Weekend Double this week? Over 2.5 goals in Peterborough United v Doncaster Rovers combined with over 2.5 goals in Chesterfield v York City, a combined 2.72 or around 7/4 with bet365 at the time of writing.
How is the EFL best bets column performing? The column stakes one point per selection and publishes every result. After five weeks it stands at -2.53 points from 42 settled bets, a record of 23 winners and 19 losers.