There is no soft way to write this one. Last weekend's European card went one from seven and cost the column 5.27pts, the worst round since it started. Over 2.5 in Racing Santander against Alaves was the only survivor. Osasuna lost at home to Espanyol, Villarreal lost to Betis, Genoa drew with Frosinone, Milan drew at Lazio, and Atalanta against Cagliari produced the three goals that beat the under. The ledger stands at -8.64pts from fourteen bets, a record of three and eleven. That is the number, and it goes at the top of the page rather than the bottom.
It is worth saying what went wrong, because it points straight at this week. Five of those six losers were result bets - somebody to win - and the sixth was an under. Pull this week's Statz acca sheet for La Liga and Serie A and the result market has nothing to offer at all: Villarreal, Athletic Club, Como and Juventus are all priced well inside what the model makes them, and the few prices that drift belong to teams with no form to justify backing. So the column goes where the numbers actually are, which this week is goals, and takes four bets rather than six.
One fixture deliberately absent: Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid on Sunday afternoon. It is the match of the weekend in Europe and the model has Atletico at 32.4 per cent, a shade better than the 3.60 on offer. A shade is not enough for a derby with this much noise in it, so the column watches that one.
Start with what Barcelona have been doing, because it is barely believable. Their last five matches have produced thirty-three goals: 7-2 against Racing Santander in midweek, 5-1 against Feyenoord, 5-2 against Rayo Vallecano, a 5-0 win at Valencia and a 4-2 win at Levante. They have scored at least four in every one of those five, and they have conceded in four of them. This is not a team managing games.
Sevilla have found something too, in a quieter register. They have scored in four of their last five and won three on the bounce - 1-0 at Deportivo, 1-0 at home to Valencia, and before that a 3-1 win at Athletic Club that nobody saw coming. Even in defeat to Atletico they got on the scoresheet. The model puts both teams scoring at 59.4 per cent, and the shape of the fixture supports it: Barcelona will score, and Sevilla at home have not been blanked since August.
The bet: both teams to score at 1.67 - full match stats here.
Rayo are the most reliable both-teams-to-score team in Spain right now. Their last five matches have all seen goals at both ends: 2-1 against Espanyol, 1-4 at Real Madrid, 3-2 against Racing, 2-5 at Barcelona, 1-1 with Alaves. Twenty-two goals across the five, and they have scored in every one even when being taken apart.
Osasuna have had a rough fortnight - beaten 4-0 at Atletico, 2-0 at home by Espanyol, 5-2 at Alaves - and have now conceded in four of five. The read is straightforward: a home side leaking badly against the visitors least likely to keep a clean sheet. Osasuna have still scored in three of those five, including in the 5-2 at Alaves and the win at Celta.
The bet: both teams to score at 1.80 - full match stats here.
Venezia have conceded in all five of their last matches and there is no sign of that changing. Fiorentina put four past them, Frosinone three, Udinese two, Milan two, Lecce two. Eighteen goals in five. What makes this a both-teams bet rather than a straight goals bet is that they have kept scoring while doing it - two against Fiorentina, two against Frosinone, one at Udinese.
Lazio are the tighter side and that is the risk worth naming: three clean sheets in five, including 1-0 against Genoa and a 1-0 win at Bologna. But they have scored in four of five themselves and they are travelling to the one ground in Serie A where nobody has failed to find the net this season. The model makes it 57.3 per cent, which is a fair reflection of a good defence meeting a bad one.
The bet: both teams to score at 1.67 - full match stats here.
Juventus put five past NEC Nijmegen in midweek and lost 3-2 at Sassuolo before that, which tells you rather more about their current state than the 2-0 against Parma does. Fifteen goals across five, and a defence that has now conceded three in a league game for the first time this season.
Atalanta have been in three-goal matches in three of their last five and lost at home to Cagliari a week ago, a result that ought to sting a side of their ambitions. They have scored in four of five. This is the fixture on the Serie A card most likely to be decided by attacks rather than by a single mistake, and 1.91 about it clearing two and a half is generous for two teams of this quality.
The bet: over 2.5 goals at 1.91 - full match stats here.
The double pairs the strongest call from each league, and both are both-teams-to-score: Sevilla against Barcelona at 1.67, and Venezia against Lazio at 1.67. Neither needs a winner. Both need only what these four teams have been doing almost every week - Barcelona scoring, Sevilla answering at home, Venezia conceding, Lazio taking the chances that come.
1.67 multiplied by 1.67 gives 2.79, or around 9/5 with bet365 at the time of writing. One point, and a column that would like its money back.
What are the best La Liga bets this weekend? From the Statz model's coupon: both teams to score in Sevilla v FC Barcelona at 1.67 and both teams to score in Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano at 1.80, both bet365 at the time of writing.
What are the best Serie A bets this weekend? Both teams to score in Venezia v Lazio at 1.67 and over 2.5 goals in Juventus v Atalanta at 1.91, bet365 at the time of writing.
What is the European Weekend Double this week? Both teams to score in Sevilla v FC Barcelona combined with both teams to score in Venezia v Lazio, a combined 2.79 or around 9/5 with bet365 at the time of writing.
Is there a bet on Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid? No. The Statz model rates Atletico at 32.4 per cent against a price of 3.60, which is too fine a margin to take in a derby, so the column passes on it this week.
How is the European best bets column performing? The column stakes one point per selection and publishes every result. After two settled editions it stands at -8.64 points from 14 bets, a record of three winners and eleven losers.