Serie A kicks off on Saturday, and the Statz model's 10,000 season simulations produce a projected table with one headline nobody would have printed two years ago: Como, third — above Napoli, above Milan, a fraction above Roma — in the club's first-ever Champions League season. Above them all, Inter march towards a third title in four years; below, an established club props up the entire division beneath both promoted sides.
Everything below comes from the Statz Serie A outrights model, updated 18 August. The live version — title, top-four and relegation probabilities for all 20 clubs — re-runs continuously through the season.
| Pos | Team | Title % | Rel % | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 57.6 | 0.0 | 79.2 |
| 2 | Juventus | 17.1 | 0.0 | 72.2 |
| 3 | Como | 8.0 | 0.0 | 68.6 |
| 4 | Roma | 8.3 | 0.0 | 68.5 |
| 5 | Napoli | 4.1 | 0.0 | 66.0 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 3.8 | 0.0 | 65.2 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 1.1 | 0.1 | 61.0 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 0.1 | 2.0 | 52.7 |
| … | ||||
| 18 | Frosinone | 0.0 | 52.7 | 36.4 |
| 19 | Monza | 0.0 | 56.3 | 35.7 |
| 20 | Lecce | 0.0 | 58.3 | 35.4 |
The full 20-team table, with probabilities for every market, lives on the outrights page.
Inter are the model's champions in 57.6% of simulations — 79.2 projected points, the league's best attack and its meanest defence, chasing a third scudetto in four seasons. Juventus are the only challenger the model takes seriously at 17.1%, seven projected points back — respectable, but the gap says Inter would have to hand it over rather than have it taken.
The champion's projected total of 79.2 is the highest of any top flight in this series — where England, Spain and Germany project attritional seasons at the top, the model expects Inter to simply pull away.
The row that will launch a thousand arguments: Como, projected third at 68.6 points with an 8% title chance — above Napoli, above AC Milan, and 0.1 points above Roma, whose 8.3% title chance actually edges Como's. Last season Cesc Fàbregas's side took fourth on the final weekend to reach the Champions League for the first time in the club's history; the model, with Nico Paz retained and reported to have stayed, says it was no fluke — this is now simply one of Italy's best teams.
The corollary is brutal for the old guard: Milan — who fell out of the top four on the final day last season — are projected sixth, in the Europa League places alongside fifth-placed Napoli, with Atalanta seventh taking the Conference League slot. And the cliff below is the steepest in the projection: 8.3 points from Atalanta down to eighth-placed Fiorentina. The model sees a top seven, and then a different league.
The bottom three are separated by a single projected point, and the order is the story: promoted Frosinone (52.7% relegation) and Monza (56.3%) fill two of the places, but Lecce — an established Serie A club — prop up the entire projection at 35.4 points and a 58.3% relegation chance, below both. Third promoted side Venezia are projected to survive in fifteenth, with Parma (41.3 points, 26.0%) the last club the model considers genuinely in the scrap.
The projection re-runs continuously from Saturday's opening round. The Serie A outrights page carries the live probabilities for every market alongside best bookmaker odds, and the Serie A hub tracks the real table as it forms. The rest of the season-preview series: La Liga, the Premier League and the Championship.
Who is predicted to win Serie A in 2026/27? Inter — champions in 57.6% of the model's 10,000 simulations at 79.2 points, chasing a third title in four seasons, with Juventus the only serious challenger at 17.1%.
Where are Como predicted to finish in 2026/27? Third, at 68.6 projected points with an 8% title chance — above Napoli, Milan and (by 0.1 points) Roma, in the club's first-ever Champions League season.
Who is predicted to be relegated from Serie A in 2026/27? Frosinone, Monza and — bottom of the whole projection at 58.3% — Lecce, with the three separated by a single projected point.