Every league in this series has a favourite. Only Germany has a foregone conclusion — at least according to the Statz model, whose 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 Bundesliga make Bayern champions 82.4% of the time — a title projection only PSG's 93.4% in Ligue 1 tops anywhere in Europe. The interest lives everywhere else in the table: a three-club scrap for the Champions League behind them, and the best set of returning-giant storylines in the continent at the bottom, where Schalke and Hamburg both start the season projected in trouble.
Everything below comes from the Statz Bundesliga outrights model, updated 18 August, ten days before the opening round. The live version re-runs continuously through the season.
| Pos | Team | Title % | Rel % | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern | 82.4 | 0.0 | 76.7 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 6.6 | 0.0 | 63.4 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 5.8 | 0.0 | 62.5 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 3.3 | 0.0 | 60.4 |
| 5 | Stuttgart | 1.4 | 0.1 | 56.5 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 0.5 | 0.2 | 53.2 |
| 7 | Frankfurt | 0.1 | 0.8 | 49.1 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 0.0 | 1.8 | 46.9 |
| … | ||||
| 16 | Schalke | 0.0 | 31.4 | 34.7 |
| 17 | Elversberg | 0.0 | 42.6 | 32.8 |
| 18 | Paderborn | 0.0 | 54.7 | 31.0 |
The full 18-team table, with probabilities for every market, lives on the outrights page.
The numbers behind Bayern's 82.4% are cartoonish: a 106.7-goal projected attack, a +59.3 goal difference, and a 13.3-point gap to second — a first-to-second chasm only PSG's 20-point cushion in France exceeds. Only PSG, in the whole of this series, start a season with a firmer grip on their league; the model essentially prices a 35th championship as Germany's default outcome.
The real race is for the other three Champions League places, and it is tight: Dortmund (63.4 points), RB Leipzig (62.5) and Leverkusen (60.4) are separated by three projected points, with Stuttgart (56.5, a 40.3% top-four chance) lurking as the spoiler. Stuttgart and Hoffenheim take the Europa League places, Frankfurt the Conference League slot.
No league in Europe starts the season with richer history in its bottom half. Schalke return to the Bundesliga as second-division champions — and the model immediately projects them sixteenth, the relegation play-off spot, at 34.7 points with a 31.4% chance of going straight back down. Hamburg, the other resurrected giant, fare a little better: fifteenth at 38.7 points, expected to survive but never comfortably.
The muddled middle above them is genuinely open — just 5.3 projected points cover ninth-placed Mainz through fourteenth-placed Bremen — which means one good autumn lifts anyone in that band into the European conversation, and one bad one drops them into the scrap.
The model's automatic relegation places go to the other two promoted clubs: Paderborn (54.7% relegation, 31.0 projected points) — up via a play-off that sent Wolfsburg down — and Elversberg (42.6%), whose first-ever Bundesliga season as the 59th club in the league's history is projected to be a hard one. With Schalke in the play-off spot, the projection puts all three promoted sides in the bottom three — the same verdict the model delivered in England and Spain. Somewhere across Europe at least one promoted club will prove the pattern wrong — in Portugal the model itself projects promoted Marítimo ninth — but Germany, it says, is the least likely place.
The projection re-runs continuously from the opening round on 28 August. The Bundesliga outrights page carries live probabilities for every market alongside best bookmaker odds, and the Bundesliga hub tracks the real table. The rest of the season-preview series: the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Championship.
Who is predicted to win the Bundesliga in 2026/27? Bayern — champions in 82.4% of the model's 10,000 simulations, the second most one-sided title projection in Europe, behind only PSG in Ligue 1, with a 106.7-goal projected attack.
Where are Schalke predicted to finish in 2026/27? Sixteenth — the relegation play-off place — at 34.7 projected points, with a 31.4% chance of an immediate return to the second division.
Who is predicted to be relegated from the Bundesliga in 2026/27? Paderborn (54.7%) and Elversberg (42.6%) in the automatic places, with Schalke in the relegation play-off spot.