Seb's European Best Bets: Villarreal, Genoa and a Quiet Night in Bergamo

The European column has a record to answer for before it tips anything. The opening edition went two winners from seven and lost 3.37pts, so the running total sits at -3.37pts and stays there until this lot settle. Spain is four games into the season, Italy three, which is enough for both tables to have started telling stories - some of them tall ones. Everything below comes off the Statz acca sheet, which prices every match result, both-teams-to-score and goals line in both leagues against the model. Three bets in each, and a Weekend Double that pays around 3/1. All odds bet365, at the time of writing.

La Liga best bets

Racing Santander v Deportivo Alavés (Saturday, 1pm UK)

Racing Santander are back in the top flight and have decided to enjoy it. Their two home games have produced nine goals, five of them their own, and a side our summer model sent straight back down - a 36.7% relegation chance in the La Liga preview - sits 13th with four points.

Deportivo Alavés arrive second and unbeaten, with ten goals in four matches; only Barcelona have scored more. Nothing about either side says quiet afternoon, and the model has over 2.5 goals here at 60.8%.

The bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 - full match stats here.

Osasuna v Espanyol (Saturday, 3:15pm UK)

El Sadar has not been breached this season. Osasuna have played two there, won one and drawn the other, and the goals column reads one scored, none conceded. Not pretty, but it is theirs. Seven points from four leaves them eighth, and the expected-points column in our La Liga table has them on 7.3 - a rare thing, a start that is exactly as good as it looks.

Espanyol have taken a single point from their last three and their only away day so far ended in defeat. The model makes the home win 46.6%, and 2.15 is a generous price about a ground nobody has scored at.

The bet: Osasuna to win at 2.15 - full match stats here.

Villarreal v Real Betis (Monday, 8pm UK)

No side in Spain has been treated worse by a scoreboard. Villarreal have two points from four games against an expected-points figure of 7.3, the widest gap in the division either way, and the summer projection had them fourth on 59 points. Two draws and two defeats later they are 17th, and the underlying numbers have barely moved.

Real Betis are the mirror image: fourth on nine points from an expected 4.2, five goals scored in four matches and five conceded in two away days. Something gives on Monday night, and the model has Villarreal at 51.5% to be the side it gives for.

The bet: Villarreal to win at 1.91 - full match stats here.

The Spanish picture in full: La Liga power rankings, the La Liga xG table and La Liga player stats.

Serie A best bets

Genoa v Frosinone (Saturday, 2pm UK)

This one is not a bet on the eye test. Genoa have lost all three, scored once and conceded six of their seven at home, and they sit 19th. Their expected-points figure is 2.9, which is 2.9 more than they have.

Frosinone are the opposite story - promoted in the summer, handed a 52.7% relegation chance by our Serie A preview, and currently seventh on six points from an expected 2.4. One side is running 3.6 points ahead of its performances, the other 2.9 behind. The model makes the home win 47.8%.

The bet: Genoa to win at 2.10 - full match stats here.

Lazio v AC Milan (Saturday, 5pm UK)

Three games, three wins, four goals scored. Lazio have the thinnest perfect start in Italy: nine points from an expected 4.2, the biggest gap in the division, built on four goals at one end and one conceded at the other.

AC Milan have shipped two all season and taken four points from their two away trips. The model gives the visitors 43.1% at the Olimpico, and a side that has conceded twice in three games is worth taking at 2.25.

The bet: AC Milan to win at 2.25 - full match stats here.

Atalanta v Cagliari (Saturday, 7:45pm UK)

Cagliari have played three matches and those three matches have produced three goals between them, two of them Cagliari's. Atalanta have won both at home by a single goal and scored four in three. Neither side is in any rush.

The model has under 2.5 goals at 53.7%, and for a Saturday night between a team averaging a goal a game across its fixtures and a host who has won both of its home games by the odd goal, that reads about right.

The bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.91 - full match stats here.

And for Italy: Serie A power rankings, the Serie A xG table and Serie A player stats.

The Weekend Double

Two home sides the table has been unkind to, one from each league. Villarreal to beat Real Betis and Genoa to beat Frosinone, both against opponents whose points totals are running a long way ahead of their performances. Paired up, the double pays around 3/1 (4.01) with bet365 at the time of writing. Genoa settle their half on Saturday afternoon; Villarreal have until Monday night to finish the job.

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FAQs

What are the best La Liga bets this weekend?

Over 2.5 goals in Racing Santander v Deportivo Alavés at 1.73, Osasuna to beat Espanyol at 2.15, and Villarreal to beat Real Betis at 1.91 on Monday night. All prices bet365 at the time of writing.

What are the best Serie A bets this weekend?

Genoa to beat Frosinone at 2.10, AC Milan to win at Lazio at 2.25, and under 2.5 goals in Atalanta v Cagliari at 1.91, all at the time of writing.

What is the Weekend Double?

The strongest call from each league combined into one two-leg accumulator. This week it is Villarreal to beat Real Betis and Genoa to beat Frosinone, paying around 3/1 at the time of writing. Both legs have to win.

How are these picks chosen?

Every selection starts on the Statz acca sheet, which prices every match result, both-teams-to-score and goals line in La Liga and Serie A against the Statz projections model. The column takes the strongest numbers, checks them against form and the table, and keeps singles in the 1.50 to 2.60 band.

Does this column track its results?

Yes. Every selection is staked at one point and settled publicly the following week, winners and losers alike. The column has one edition behind it: two winners from seven selections, 3.37 points down, and that running total is quoted in every intro.