Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 25 October 2026, after the last game
Venezia have the biggest shortfall in the Serie A: 3 points from chances worth 10.1 xPts, a gap of 7.1. At the other end, Lazio have taken 22 points from an xPts figure of 11.8, 10.2 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 5 | 17 | 14.7 | +2.3 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | +10 | 10.0 | +0.0 | 15 | 11.7 | +3.3 |
| 2 | Roma | 4 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | +7 | 5.5 | +1.5 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 |
| 3 | Juventus | 4 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | +1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 |
| 4 | Napoli | 4 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | +3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 5 | Lazio | 4 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | +4 | 2.4 | +1.6 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 3 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | +6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 5 | 11 | 9.3 | +1.7 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | +3 | 1.0 | +2.0 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 |
| 8 | Como | 3 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | +3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 4 | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | 9 | 5.7 | +3.3 | -6 | 1.4 | -7.4 | 1 | 6.4 | -5.4 |
| 10 | Bologna | 4 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | -3 | 1.1 | -4.1 | 2 | 6.3 | -4.3 |
| 11 | Torino | 4 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| 12 | Parma | 4 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 | -3 | -0.1 | -2.9 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Genoa | 5 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | -3 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 |
| 14 | Udinese | 5 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 | 9 | 9.5 | -0.5 | -7 | -3.9 | -3.1 | 1 | 5.0 | -4.0 |
| 15 | Frosinone | 4 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | +4 | -1.1 | +5.1 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 |
| 16 | Sassuolo | 3 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | +2 | 0.7 | +1.3 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
| 17 | Monza | 3 | 8 | 4.7 | +3.3 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | +4 | -0.3 | +4.3 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 18 | Venezia | 4 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 | -5 | -3.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 19 | Lecce | 4 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | -6 | -3.6 | -2.4 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| 20 | Cagliari | 4 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 | -2 | -4.6 | +2.6 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Milan | 5 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | +3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 2 | Juventus | 4 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | +2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 3 | Monza | 5 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | 14 | 6.6 | +7.4 | -7 | 0.4 | -7.4 | 1 | 6.8 | -5.8 |
| 4 | Como | 5 | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4 | 6 | 8.9 | -2.9 | +4 | -0.3 | +4.3 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 |
| 5 | Inter | 3 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | +3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 6 | Roma | 4 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | +6 | 1.9 | +4.1 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 |
| 7 | Venezia | 4 | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 | -6 | 0.8 | -6.8 | 0 | 6.3 | -6.3 |
| 8 | Sassuolo | 5 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 | -6 | -1.1 | -4.9 | 1 | 6.2 | -5.2 |
| 9 | Bologna | 4 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Napoli | 4 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | +0 | -0.9 | +0.9 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 |
| 11 | Lecce | 4 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | +1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 4 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 |
| 13 | Lazio | 4 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 1 | 6.4 | -5.4 | +7 | -1.4 | +8.4 | 12 | 4.6 | +7.4 |
| 14 | Fiorentina | 4 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | -4 | -3.4 | -0.6 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 |
| 15 | Torino | 4 | 7 | 4.1 | +2.9 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | +3 | -2.4 | +5.4 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 4 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | 8 | 11.9 | -3.9 | +0 | -5.7 | +5.7 | 5 | 3.1 | +1.9 |
| 17 | Genoa | 3 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | -4 | -1.7 | -2.3 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Udinese | 3 | 7 | 2.7 | +4.3 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | -2 | -3.5 | +1.5 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 19 | Atalanta | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | -4 | -4.3 | +0.3 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 20 | Parma | 4 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | -7 | -6.1 | -0.9 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 5 | 15 | 14.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | +8 | 9.7 | -1.7 | 13 | 12.0 | +1.0 |
| 2 | Napoli | 5 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | +3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 8 | 9.8 | -1.8 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 5 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | +6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 |
| 4 | Como | 5 | 7 | 9.8 | -2.8 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | +3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| 5 | Juventus | 5 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 4.2 | +2.8 | +0 | 2.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 6 | Lazio | 5 | 12 | 7.8 | +4.2 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | +8 | 1.2 | +6.8 | 13 | 7.6 | +5.4 |
| 7 | Roma | 5 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | +4 | 0.5 | +3.5 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 |
| 8 | Atalanta | 5 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 | -2 | 1.2 | -3.2 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| 9 | Torino | 5 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | +3 | 0.0 | +3.0 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 10 | Fiorentina | 5 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | -2 | -0.6 | -1.4 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | -2 | -0.7 | -1.3 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| 12 | Monza | 5 | 11 | 7.6 | +3.4 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.6 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bologna | 5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | +0 | -1.1 | +1.1 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 14 | Venezia | 5 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 | -6 | -2.3 | -3.7 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 |
| 15 | Frosinone | 5 | 11 | 9.1 | +1.9 | 10 | 13.1 | -3.1 | +1 | -4.0 | +5.0 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 |
| 16 | Sassuolo | 5 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 | -4 | -2.2 | -1.8 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 5 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | -1 | -2.4 | +1.4 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 |
| 18 | Parma | 5 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 11 | 9.1 | +1.9 | -7 | -4.2 | -2.8 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 19 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | -4 | -3.7 | -0.3 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 |
| 20 | Udinese | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 13 | 10.4 | +2.6 | -9 | -5.8 | -3.2 | 0 | 4.0 | -4.0 |
Lazio are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in Serie A in 2026/2027, with 16 goals from chances worth 11.5 xG, a gap of 4.5. Frosinone are next on 4.2.
Venezia are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in Serie A in 2026/2027, with 6 goals from chances worth 12.9 xG, a shortfall of 6.9. Bologna and Fiorentina are next on 3.0.
Lazio are the luckiest side in Serie A in 2026/2027, with 22 points from performances worth 11.8 xPts, 10.2 more than their chances deserved. Frosinone are next on 6.1.
Venezia are the unluckiest side in Serie A in 2026/2027, with 3 points from performances worth 10.1 xPts, 7.1 short of what they deserved. Fiorentina are next on 6.8.
Inter would also be top of Serie A in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 18.5 xPts from 23.0 xG created and 8.1 conceded across eight matches. Roma are next on 15.1.
Inter have created the most xG in Serie A in 2026/2027, 23.0 from eight matches, 2.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Roma are next on 17.0.
Genoa have created the least xG in Serie A in 2026/2027, 6.8 from eight matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Parma are next on 7.2.
Frosinone have conceded the most xG in Serie A in 2026/2027, 19.6 from eight matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Atalanta are next on 15.6.
Juventus have conceded the least xG in Serie A in 2026/2027, 4.1 from seven matches, 0.6 a game against a competition average of 1.5. AC Milan are next on 7.8.
Serie A teams have averaged 1.52 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 78 matches played, and have scored 1.52 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.30 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Serie A teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.64 a game against 1.40 away, a home advantage of +0.25, against +0.24 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 8 | 23 | 23.0 | +0.0 | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 | +13 | 14.9 | -1.9 | 22 | 18.5 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Juventus | 8 | 11 | 11.6 | -0.6 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 | +3 | 6.5 | -3.5 | 14 | 15.6 | -1.6 |
| 3 | Roma | 8 | 19 | 17.0 | +2.0 | 6 | 9.7 | -3.7 | +13 | 7.3 | +5.7 | 18 | 15.1 | +2.9 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 8 | 16 | 14.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | +9 | 6.1 | +2.9 | 18 | 14.4 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Napoli | 8 | 13 | 15.3 | -2.3 | 10 | 11.9 | -1.9 | +3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 11 | 13.7 | -2.7 |
| 6 | Como | 8 | 14 | 14.6 | -0.6 | 7 | 11.4 | -4.4 | +7 | 3.2 | +3.8 | 17 | 13.2 | +3.8 |
| 7 | Bologna | 8 | 8 | 11.0 | -3.0 | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 | -2 | 2.0 | -4.0 | 8 | 12.3 | -4.3 |
| 8 | Lazio | 8 | 16 | 11.5 | +4.5 | 5 | 10.5 | -5.5 | +11 | 1.0 | +10.0 | 22 | 11.8 | +10.2 |
| 9 | Monza | 8 | 15 | 11.7 | +3.3 | 18 | 11.6 | +6.4 | -3 | 0.2 | -3.2 | 7 | 10.9 | -3.9 |
| 10 | Fiorentina | 8 | 9 | 12.0 | -3.0 | 19 | 14.0 | +5.0 | -10 | -2.0 | -8.0 | 4 | 10.8 | -6.8 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 8 | 12 | 12.2 | -0.2 | 16 | 12.6 | +3.4 | -4 | -0.4 | -3.6 | 8 | 10.7 | -2.7 |
| 12 | Venezia | 8 | 6 | 12.9 | -6.9 | 17 | 15.5 | +1.5 | -11 | -2.6 | -8.4 | 3 | 10.1 | -7.1 |
| 13 | Torino | 8 | 13 | 9.1 | +3.9 | 11 | 12.2 | -1.2 | +2 | -3.1 | +5.1 | 13 | 9.3 | +3.7 |
| 14 | Lecce | 8 | 9 | 10.0 | -1.0 | 14 | 13.1 | +0.9 | -5 | -3.2 | -1.8 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 8 | 14 | 12.3 | +1.7 | 15 | 15.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -3.3 | +2.3 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 |
| 16 | Cagliari | 8 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | 9 | 13.5 | -4.5 | -3 | -5.6 | +2.6 | 13 | 8.0 | +5.0 |
| 17 | Genoa | 8 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 13 | 10.8 | +2.2 | -7 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 18 | Frosinone | 8 | 17 | 12.8 | +4.2 | 13 | 19.6 | -6.6 | +4 | -6.8 | +10.8 | 14 | 7.9 | +6.1 |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | 15 | 13.4 | +1.6 | -10 | -6.2 | -3.8 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 |
| 20 | Udinese | 8 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 18 | 15.7 | +2.3 | -9 | -7.4 | -1.6 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |