Pisa have the biggest shortfall in the Serie A: 18 points from chances worth 42.3 xPts, a gap of 24.3. At the other end, Napoli have taken 76 points from an xPts figure of 61.9, 14.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 19 | 50 | 42.5 | +7.5 | 16 | 14.7 | +1.3 | +34 | 27.9 | +6.1 | 45 | 41.8 | +3.2 |
| 2 | Juventus | 19 | 35 | 39.2 | -4.2 | 16 | 17.6 | -1.6 | +19 | 21.7 | -2.7 | 37 | 38.2 | -1.2 |
| 3 | Como | 19 | 35 | 36.4 | -1.4 | 15 | 16.3 | -1.3 | +20 | 20.1 | -0.1 | 36 | 37.8 | -1.8 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 19 | 25 | 37.0 | -12.0 | 15 | 17.7 | -2.7 | +10 | 19.2 | -9.2 | 33 | 37.6 | -4.6 |
| 5 | Roma | 19 | 33 | 29.9 | +3.1 | 10 | 13.8 | -3.8 | +23 | 16.1 | +6.9 | 42 | 36.2 | +5.8 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 19 | 25 | 34.9 | -9.9 | 21 | 23.6 | -2.6 | +4 | 11.3 | -7.3 | 32 | 32.8 | -0.8 |
| 7 | Fiorentina | 19 | 21 | 30.3 | -9.3 | 21 | 21.8 | -0.8 | +0 | 8.5 | -8.5 | 21 | 31.0 | -10.0 |
| 8 | Bologna | 19 | 19 | 27.2 | -8.2 | 23 | 19.3 | +3.7 | -4 | 7.9 | -11.9 | 22 | 30.7 | -8.7 |
| 9 | Napoli | 19 | 33 | 27.6 | +5.4 | 18 | 21.5 | -3.5 | +15 | 6.0 | +9.0 | 43 | 30.4 | +12.6 |
| 10 | Genoa | 19 | 22 | 23.9 | -1.9 | 26 | 24.9 | +1.1 | -4 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 22 | 25.4 | -3.4 |
| 11 | Udinese | 19 | 18 | 21.7 | -3.7 | 21 | 22.7 | -1.7 | -3 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 23 | 25.1 | -2.1 |
| 12 | Lazio | 19 | 27 | 24.8 | +2.2 | 25 | 27.1 | -2.1 | +2 | -2.3 | +4.3 | 30 | 24.2 | +5.8 |
| 13 | Torino | 19 | 27 | 26.1 | +0.9 | 29 | 30.3 | -1.3 | -2 | -4.2 | +2.2 | 28 | 23.9 | +4.1 |
| 14 | Cremonese | 19 | 18 | 22.4 | -4.4 | 29 | 27.0 | +2.0 | -11 | -4.6 | -6.4 | 16 | 23.7 | -7.7 |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 19 | 25 | 22.1 | +2.9 | 26 | 26.0 | +0.0 | -1 | -3.9 | +2.9 | 29 | 23.6 | +5.4 |
| 16 | Hellas Verona | 19 | 12 | 16.6 | -4.6 | 28 | 20.1 | +7.9 | -16 | -3.6 | -12.4 | 8 | 23.2 | -15.2 |
| 17 | Lecce | 19 | 13 | 20.4 | -7.4 | 24 | 26.2 | -2.2 | -11 | -5.8 | -5.2 | 20 | 23.1 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Pisa | 19 | 9 | 21.4 | -12.4 | 26 | 25.5 | +0.5 | -17 | -4.1 | -12.9 | 10 | 22.8 | -12.8 |
| 19 | Cagliari | 19 | 22 | 18.3 | +3.7 | 23 | 23.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -5.4 | +4.4 | 25 | 22.6 | +2.4 |
| 20 | Parma | 19 | 16 | 17.5 | -1.5 | 25 | 29.0 | -4.0 | -9 | -11.5 | +2.5 | 21 | 20.2 | +0.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 19 | 39 | 31.2 | +7.8 | 19 | 19.6 | -0.6 | +20 | 11.6 | +8.4 | 42 | 33.7 | +8.3 |
| 2 | Napoli | 19 | 25 | 28.2 | -3.2 | 18 | 18.9 | -0.9 | +7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | 33 | 31.5 | +1.5 |
| 3 | Juventus | 19 | 26 | 30.2 | -4.2 | 18 | 20.5 | -2.5 | +8 | 9.8 | -1.8 | 32 | 31.3 | +0.7 |
| 4 | Como | 19 | 30 | 24.3 | +5.7 | 14 | 18.3 | -4.3 | +16 | 6.0 | +10.0 | 35 | 29.5 | +5.5 |
| 5 | Roma | 19 | 26 | 26.4 | -0.4 | 21 | 23.9 | -2.9 | +5 | 2.6 | +2.4 | 31 | 28.5 | +2.5 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 19 | 28 | 25.5 | +2.5 | 14 | 23.6 | -9.6 | +14 | 1.9 | +12.1 | 38 | 27.7 | +10.3 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 19 | 26 | 27.8 | -1.8 | 21 | 27.0 | -6.0 | +5 | 0.8 | +4.2 | 26 | 27.3 | -1.3 |
| 8 | Bologna | 19 | 30 | 23.0 | +7.0 | 23 | 23.5 | -0.5 | +7 | -0.5 | +7.5 | 34 | 25.8 | +8.2 |
| 9 | Lazio | 19 | 14 | 19.7 | -5.7 | 15 | 24.8 | -9.8 | -1 | -5.0 | +4.0 | 24 | 22.5 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Torino | 19 | 17 | 20.3 | -3.3 | 34 | 26.1 | +7.9 | -17 | -5.8 | -11.2 | 17 | 22.5 | -5.5 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 19 | 21 | 21.7 | -0.7 | 24 | 28.9 | -4.9 | -3 | -7.2 | +4.2 | 20 | 21.9 | -1.9 |
| 12 | Hellas Verona | 19 | 13 | 20.6 | -7.6 | 33 | 29.0 | +4.0 | -20 | -8.5 | -11.5 | 13 | 21.3 | -8.3 |
| 13 | Genoa | 19 | 19 | 22.5 | -3.5 | 25 | 31.2 | -6.2 | -6 | -8.7 | +2.7 | 19 | 20.9 | -1.9 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 19 | 18 | 20.5 | -2.5 | 30 | 29.7 | +0.3 | -12 | -9.2 | -2.8 | 18 | 20.5 | -2.5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 19 | 27 | 21.9 | +5.1 | 27 | 32.9 | -5.9 | +0 | -11.0 | +11.0 | 27 | 20.2 | +6.8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 19 | 20 | 21.3 | -1.3 | 29 | 32.7 | -3.7 | -9 | -11.4 | +2.4 | 21 | 19.6 | +1.4 |
| 17 | Pisa | 19 | 17 | 19.8 | -2.8 | 45 | 34.0 | +11.0 | -28 | -14.2 | -13.8 | 8 | 19.4 | -11.4 |
| 18 | Parma | 19 | 12 | 16.4 | -4.4 | 21 | 30.1 | -9.1 | -9 | -13.8 | +4.8 | 24 | 18.2 | +5.8 |
| 19 | Lecce | 19 | 15 | 13.5 | +1.5 | 26 | 31.9 | -5.9 | -11 | -18.4 | +7.4 | 18 | 15.4 | +2.6 |
| 20 | Cremonese | 19 | 14 | 13.8 | +0.2 | 28 | 33.5 | -5.5 | -14 | -19.7 | +5.7 | 18 | 14.6 | +3.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 13 | 10.5 | +2.5 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | +11 | 7.6 | +3.4 | 15 | 11.5 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Juventus | 5 | 4 | 10.0 | -6.0 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | -1 | 6.3 | -7.3 | 6 | 10.5 | -4.5 |
| 3 | Como | 5 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | +7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Inter | 5 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | +5 | 2.8 | +2.2 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 |
| 5 | Napoli | 5 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | +7 | 3.3 | +3.7 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 |
| 6 | Atalanta | 5 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | -1 | 1.7 | -2.7 | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 |
| 7 | Sassuolo | 5 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | -1 | 1.3 | -2.3 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 |
| 8 | Cagliari | 5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | +1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 |
| 9 | Udinese | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | +2 | 0.4 | +1.6 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | Bologna | 5 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | +0 | -0.4 | +0.4 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 |
| 11 | Pisa | 5 | 2 | 5.7 | -3.7 | 11 | 5.9 | +5.1 | -9 | -0.2 | -8.8 | 0 | 6.2 | -6.2 |
| 12 | AC Milan | 5 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | -3 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 13 | Torino | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | -2 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | Lecce | 5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 4 | 7.6 | -3.6 | +2 | -2.0 | +4.0 | 10 | 5.9 | +4.1 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 5 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 10 | 6.3 | +3.7 | -4 | -2.6 | -1.4 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Lazio | 5 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | 10 | 7.3 | +2.7 | -3 | -1.7 | -1.3 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | -2 | -3.4 | +1.4 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 |
| 18 | Genoa | 5 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | -4 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 4.8 | -2.8 |
| 19 | Parma | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | -2 | -4.4 | +2.4 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 20 | Hellas Verona | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 5 | 10.1 | -5.1 | -3 | -6.8 | +3.8 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
Inter overperformed their xG by more than any other side in Serie A in 2025/2026, with 89 goals from chances worth 73.7 xG, a gap of 15.3. Como were next on 4.3.
Pisa underperformed their xG by more than any other side in Serie A in 2025/2026, with 26 goals from chances worth 41.1 xG, a shortfall of 15.1. Atalanta were next on 13.8.
Napoli were the luckiest side in Serie A in 2025/2026, with 76 points from performances worth 61.9 xPts, 14.1 more than their chances deserved. Inter were next on 11.5.
Pisa were the unluckiest side in Serie A in 2025/2026, with 18 points from performances worth 42.3 xPts, 24.3 short of what they deserved. Hellas Verona were next on 23.6.
Inter were also top of Serie A in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 75.5 xPts from 73.7 xG created and 34.3 conceded across 38 matches. Juventus were next on 69.5.
Inter created the most xG in Serie A in 2025/2026, 73.7 from 38 matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Juventus were next on 69.5.
Lecce created the least xG in Serie A in 2025/2026, 33.8 from 38 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Parma were next on 33.9.
Cremonese conceded the most xG in Serie A in 2025/2026, 60.5 from 38 matches, 1.6 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Pisa were next on 59.4.
Inter conceded the least xG in Serie A in 2025/2026, 34.3 from 38 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Como were next on 34.6.
Serie A teams averaged 1.30 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 380 matches played, and scored 1.21 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.30 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Serie A teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.42 a game against 1.18 away, a home advantage of +0.24, against +0.21 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 89 | 73.7 | +15.3 | 35 | 34.3 | +0.7 | +54 | 39.4 | +14.6 | 87 | 75.5 | +11.5 |
| 2 | Juventus | 38 | 61 | 69.5 | -8.5 | 34 | 38.1 | -4.1 | +27 | 31.4 | -4.4 | 69 | 69.5 | -0.5 |
| 3 | Como | 38 | 65 | 60.7 | +4.3 | 29 | 34.6 | -5.6 | +36 | 26.1 | +9.9 | 71 | 67.3 | +3.7 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 38 | 51 | 64.8 | -13.8 | 36 | 44.7 | -8.7 | +15 | 20.1 | -5.1 | 59 | 65.0 | -6.0 |
| 5 | Roma | 38 | 59 | 56.3 | +2.7 | 31 | 37.7 | -6.7 | +28 | 18.6 | +9.4 | 73 | 64.7 | +8.3 |
| 6 | Napoli | 38 | 58 | 55.7 | +2.3 | 36 | 40.4 | -4.4 | +22 | 15.3 | +6.7 | 76 | 61.9 | +14.1 |
| 7 | AC Milan | 38 | 53 | 60.5 | -7.5 | 35 | 47.2 | -12.2 | +18 | 13.2 | +4.8 | 70 | 60.5 | +9.5 |
| 8 | Bologna | 38 | 49 | 50.2 | -1.2 | 46 | 42.7 | +3.3 | +3 | 7.4 | -4.4 | 56 | 56.5 | -0.5 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 41 | 51.6 | -10.6 | 50 | 54.5 | -4.5 | -9 | -2.9 | -6.1 | 42 | 50.6 | -8.6 |
| 10 | Lazio | 38 | 41 | 44.5 | -3.5 | 40 | 51.8 | -11.8 | +1 | -7.3 | +8.3 | 54 | 46.7 | +7.3 |
| 11 | Torino | 38 | 44 | 46.4 | -2.4 | 63 | 56.4 | +6.6 | -19 | -10.0 | -9.0 | 45 | 46.4 | -1.4 |
| 12 | Genoa | 38 | 41 | 46.4 | -5.4 | 51 | 56.1 | -5.1 | -10 | -9.7 | -0.3 | 41 | 46.3 | -5.3 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 38 | 46 | 43.9 | +2.1 | 50 | 54.9 | -4.9 | -4 | -11.0 | +7.0 | 49 | 45.5 | +3.5 |
| 14 | Udinese | 38 | 45 | 43.6 | +1.4 | 48 | 55.6 | -7.6 | -3 | -12.0 | +9.0 | 50 | 45.3 | +4.7 |
| 15 | Hellas Verona | 38 | 25 | 37.1 | -12.1 | 61 | 49.2 | +11.8 | -36 | -12.0 | -24.0 | 21 | 44.6 | -23.6 |
| 16 | Cagliari | 38 | 40 | 38.7 | +1.3 | 53 | 53.3 | -0.3 | -13 | -14.6 | +1.6 | 43 | 43.1 | -0.1 |
| 17 | Pisa | 38 | 26 | 41.1 | -15.1 | 71 | 59.4 | +11.6 | -45 | -18.3 | -26.7 | 18 | 42.3 | -24.3 |
| 18 | Lecce | 38 | 28 | 33.8 | -5.8 | 50 | 58.1 | -8.1 | -22 | -24.2 | +2.2 | 38 | 38.5 | -0.5 |
| 19 | Parma | 38 | 28 | 33.9 | -5.9 | 46 | 59.2 | -13.2 | -18 | -25.3 | +7.3 | 45 | 38.4 | +6.6 |
| 20 | Cremonese | 38 | 32 | 36.2 | -4.2 | 57 | 60.5 | -3.5 | -25 | -24.3 | -0.7 | 34 | 38.2 | -4.2 |