Monza have the biggest shortfall in the Serie A: 18 points from chances worth 33.8 xPts, a gap of 15.8. At the other end, Napoli have taken 82 points from an xPts figure of 67.5, 14.5 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napoli | 19 | 32 | 36.5 | -4.5 | 13 | 15.3 | -2.3 | +19 | 21.2 | -2.2 | 45 | 39.8 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Inter | 19 | 40 | 37.0 | +3.0 | 21 | 20.0 | +1.0 | +19 | 17.0 | +2.0 | 43 | 37.0 | +6.0 |
| 3 | Bologna | 19 | 33 | 33.3 | -0.3 | 18 | 15.8 | +2.2 | +15 | 17.5 | -2.5 | 37 | 36.8 | +0.2 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 19 | 36 | 35.6 | +0.4 | 24 | 17.5 | +6.5 | +12 | 18.1 | -6.1 | 32 | 36.6 | -4.6 |
| 5 | Lazio | 19 | 33 | 31.1 | +1.9 | 26 | 17.5 | +8.5 | +7 | 13.7 | -6.7 | 30 | 35.1 | -5.1 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 19 | 30 | 31.5 | -1.5 | 16 | 19.8 | -3.8 | +14 | 11.7 | +2.3 | 34 | 33.9 | +0.1 |
| 7 | Juventus | 19 | 31 | 27.8 | +3.2 | 15 | 17.6 | -2.6 | +16 | 10.2 | +5.8 | 40 | 33.6 | +6.4 |
| 8 | Roma | 19 | 37 | 30.1 | +6.9 | 15 | 20.0 | -5.0 | +22 | 10.1 | +11.9 | 41 | 30.7 | +10.3 |
| 9 | Como | 19 | 28 | 27.1 | +0.9 | 26 | 22.5 | +3.5 | +2 | 4.5 | -2.5 | 29 | 29.4 | -0.4 |
| 10 | Fiorentina | 19 | 32 | 27.5 | +4.5 | 18 | 22.0 | -4.0 | +14 | 5.5 | +8.5 | 40 | 28.6 | +11.4 |
| 11 | Cagliari | 19 | 24 | 25.8 | -1.8 | 28 | 26.6 | +1.4 | -4 | -0.8 | -3.2 | 22 | 25.8 | -3.8 |
| 12 | Parma | 19 | 25 | 26.7 | -1.7 | 28 | 29.0 | -1.0 | -3 | -2.2 | -0.8 | 21 | 25.7 | -4.7 |
| 13 | Venezia | 19 | 17 | 23.7 | -6.7 | 22 | 25.6 | -3.6 | -5 | -1.9 | -3.1 | 20 | 24.9 | -4.9 |
| 14 | Genoa | 19 | 21 | 23.1 | -2.1 | 25 | 26.7 | -1.7 | -4 | -3.7 | -0.3 | 22 | 23.6 | -1.6 |
| 15 | Hellas Verona | 19 | 15 | 20.6 | -5.6 | 36 | 24.9 | +11.1 | -21 | -4.3 | -16.7 | 17 | 22.8 | -5.8 |
| 16 | Udinese | 19 | 22 | 22.6 | -0.6 | 27 | 28.6 | -1.6 | -5 | -6.0 | +1.0 | 24 | 22.8 | +1.2 |
| 17 | Lecce | 19 | 13 | 21.6 | -8.6 | 31 | 29.2 | +1.8 | -18 | -7.6 | -10.4 | 18 | 22.1 | -4.1 |
| 18 | Torino | 19 | 17 | 19.3 | -2.3 | 18 | 27.0 | -9.0 | -1 | -7.7 | +6.7 | 25 | 21.7 | +3.3 |
| 19 | Empoli | 19 | 10 | 14.6 | -4.6 | 26 | 22.6 | +3.4 | -16 | -8.1 | -7.9 | 13 | 20.1 | -7.1 |
| 20 | Monza | 19 | 13 | 18.3 | -5.3 | 31 | 27.3 | +3.7 | -18 | -9.0 | -9.0 | 8 | 19.7 | -11.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atalanta | 19 | 42 | 37.9 | +4.1 | 13 | 21.2 | -8.2 | +29 | 16.7 | +12.3 | 42 | 35.6 | +6.4 |
| 2 | Inter | 19 | 39 | 32.5 | +6.5 | 14 | 21.8 | -7.8 | +25 | 10.7 | +14.3 | 38 | 33.0 | +5.0 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 19 | 31 | 34.2 | -3.2 | 27 | 23.9 | +3.1 | +4 | 10.3 | -6.3 | 29 | 31.6 | -2.6 |
| 4 | Lazio | 19 | 28 | 27.6 | +0.4 | 23 | 22.7 | +0.3 | +5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 35 | 29.1 | +5.9 |
| 5 | Juventus | 19 | 27 | 25.5 | +1.5 | 20 | 22.4 | -2.4 | +7 | 3.1 | +3.9 | 30 | 28.7 | +1.3 |
| 6 | Napoli | 19 | 27 | 22.0 | +5.0 | 14 | 18.5 | -4.5 | +13 | 3.5 | +9.5 | 37 | 27.8 | +9.2 |
| 7 | Roma | 19 | 19 | 27.0 | -8.0 | 20 | 27.0 | -7.0 | -1 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 28 | 27.0 | +1.0 |
| 8 | Bologna | 19 | 24 | 21.8 | +2.2 | 29 | 20.9 | +8.1 | -5 | 0.9 | -5.9 | 25 | 26.8 | -1.8 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 19 | 28 | 23.1 | +4.9 | 23 | 24.7 | -1.7 | +5 | -1.6 | +6.6 | 25 | 24.9 | +0.1 |
| 10 | Como | 19 | 21 | 20.9 | +0.1 | 26 | 24.0 | +2.0 | -5 | -3.1 | -1.9 | 20 | 23.8 | -3.8 |
| 11 | Udinese | 19 | 19 | 23.7 | -4.7 | 29 | 29.1 | -0.1 | -10 | -5.4 | -4.6 | 20 | 23.2 | -3.2 |
| 12 | Empoli | 19 | 23 | 21.1 | +1.9 | 33 | 30.3 | +2.7 | -10 | -9.1 | -0.9 | 18 | 20.5 | -2.5 |
| 13 | Torino | 19 | 22 | 18.1 | +3.9 | 27 | 28.0 | -1.0 | -5 | -9.9 | +4.9 | 19 | 20.0 | -1.0 |
| 14 | Genoa | 19 | 16 | 16.4 | -0.4 | 24 | 27.4 | -3.4 | -8 | -11.0 | +3.0 | 21 | 19.9 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Cagliari | 19 | 16 | 19.4 | -3.4 | 28 | 28.7 | -0.7 | -12 | -9.3 | -2.7 | 14 | 19.8 | -5.8 |
| 16 | Parma | 19 | 19 | 19.0 | +0.0 | 30 | 32.0 | -2.0 | -11 | -12.9 | +1.9 | 15 | 19.1 | -4.1 |
| 17 | Hellas Verona | 19 | 19 | 16.7 | +2.3 | 30 | 29.5 | +0.5 | -11 | -12.9 | +1.9 | 20 | 17.6 | +2.4 |
| 18 | Lecce | 19 | 14 | 16.5 | -2.5 | 27 | 33.2 | -6.2 | -13 | -16.7 | +3.7 | 16 | 16.8 | -0.8 |
| 19 | Venezia | 19 | 15 | 18.4 | -3.4 | 34 | 35.9 | -1.9 | -19 | -17.5 | -1.5 | 9 | 16.1 | -7.1 |
| 20 | Monza | 19 | 15 | 13.6 | +1.4 | 38 | 32.6 | +5.4 | -23 | -18.9 | -4.1 | 10 | 14.1 | -4.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 5 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | +0 | 4.8 | -4.8 | 6 | 10.2 | -4.2 |
| 2 | Napoli | 5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | +5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 11 | 10.0 | +1.0 |
| 3 | Atalanta | 5 | 12 | 10.9 | +1.1 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | +5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 5 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | +5 | 2.1 | +2.9 | 12 | 8.4 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Bologna | 5 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 10 | 4.4 | +5.6 | -5 | 2.3 | -7.3 | 2 | 8.1 | -6.1 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | +5 | 1.2 | +3.8 | 11 | 7.5 | +3.5 |
| 7 | Como | 5 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 8 | Roma | 5 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 | +5 | 0.4 | +4.6 | 12 | 7.3 | +4.7 |
| 9 | Parma | 5 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | -1 | 0.9 | -1.9 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 |
| 10 | Empoli | 5 | 7 | 4.0 | +3.0 | 7 | 4.0 | +3.0 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 11 | Inter | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 | +4 | -0.7 | +4.7 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 |
| 12 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 6.2 | -5.2 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | -7 | -0.5 | -6.5 | 1 | 6.4 | -5.4 |
| 13 | Fiorentina | 5 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | +1 | -1.4 | +2.4 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 |
| 14 | Udinese | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | -3 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 15 | Venezia | 5 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | -5 | -2.3 | -2.7 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 16 | Cagliari | 5 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | +0 | -3.1 | +3.1 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 17 | Lecce | 5 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 | +1 | -2.6 | +3.6 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 |
| 18 | Monza | 5 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 | -9 | -2.9 | -6.1 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 8 | 4.4 | +3.6 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | -1 | -3.2 | +2.2 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 20 | Hellas Verona | 5 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | -2 | -2.6 | +0.6 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 |
Inter overperformed their xG by more than any other side in Serie A in 2024/2025, with 79 goals from chances worth 69.5 xG, a gap of 9.5. Fiorentina were next on 9.4.
Lecce underperformed their xG by more than any other side in Serie A in 2024/2025, with 27 goals from chances worth 38.1 xG, a shortfall of 11.1. Venezia were next on 10.1.
Napoli were the luckiest side in Serie A in 2024/2025, with 82 points from performances worth 67.5 xPts, 14.5 more than their chances deserved. Fiorentina were next on 11.5.
Monza were the unluckiest side in Serie A in 2024/2025, with 18 points from performances worth 33.8 xPts, 15.8 short of what they deserved. Venezia were next on 11.9.
Atalanta would be top of Serie A in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 72.1 xPts from 73.6 xG created and 38.8 conceded across 38 matches. Inter were next on 70.0.
Atalanta created the most xG in Serie A in 2024/2025, 73.6 from 38 matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Inter were next on 69.5.
Monza created the least xG in Serie A in 2024/2025, 31.9 from 38 matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Empoli were next on 35.7.
Lecce conceded the most xG in Serie A in 2024/2025, 62.4 from 38 matches, 1.6 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Venezia were next on 61.5.
Napoli conceded the least xG in Serie A in 2024/2025, 33.7 from 38 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Bologna were next on 36.7.
Serie A teams averaged 1.30 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 380 matches played, and scored 1.28 goals a game from it.
Serie A teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.40 a game against 1.20 away, a home advantage of +0.21.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atalanta | 38 | 78 | 73.6 | +4.4 | 37 | 38.8 | -1.8 | +41 | 34.8 | +6.2 | 74 | 72.1 | +1.9 |
| 2 | Inter | 38 | 79 | 69.5 | +9.5 | 35 | 41.8 | -6.8 | +44 | 27.7 | +16.3 | 81 | 70.0 | +11.0 |
| 3 | Napoli | 38 | 59 | 58.5 | +0.5 | 27 | 33.7 | -6.7 | +32 | 24.8 | +7.2 | 82 | 67.5 | +14.5 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 38 | 61 | 65.7 | -4.7 | 43 | 43.7 | -0.7 | +18 | 21.9 | -3.9 | 63 | 65.4 | -2.4 |
| 5 | Lazio | 38 | 61 | 58.7 | +2.3 | 49 | 40.1 | +8.9 | +12 | 18.6 | -6.6 | 65 | 64.2 | +0.8 |
| 6 | Bologna | 38 | 57 | 55.1 | +1.9 | 47 | 36.7 | +10.3 | +10 | 18.5 | -8.5 | 62 | 63.6 | -1.6 |
| 7 | Juventus | 38 | 58 | 53.2 | +4.8 | 35 | 40.0 | -5.0 | +23 | 13.3 | +9.7 | 70 | 62.3 | +7.7 |
| 8 | Roma | 38 | 56 | 57.2 | -1.2 | 35 | 47.0 | -12.0 | +21 | 10.1 | +10.9 | 69 | 57.6 | +11.4 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 60 | 50.6 | +9.4 | 41 | 46.7 | -5.7 | +19 | 3.9 | +15.1 | 65 | 53.5 | +11.5 |
| 10 | Como | 38 | 49 | 48.0 | +1.0 | 52 | 46.5 | +5.5 | -3 | 1.5 | -4.5 | 49 | 53.1 | -4.1 |
| 11 | Udinese | 38 | 41 | 46.3 | -5.3 | 56 | 57.7 | -1.7 | -15 | -11.3 | -3.7 | 44 | 46.0 | -2.0 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 38 | 40 | 45.1 | -5.1 | 56 | 55.3 | +0.7 | -16 | -10.2 | -5.8 | 36 | 45.5 | -9.5 |
| 13 | Parma | 38 | 44 | 45.8 | -1.8 | 58 | 60.9 | -2.9 | -14 | -15.2 | +1.2 | 36 | 44.8 | -8.8 |
| 14 | Genoa | 38 | 37 | 39.5 | -2.5 | 49 | 54.1 | -5.1 | -12 | -14.7 | +2.7 | 43 | 43.5 | -0.5 |
| 15 | Torino | 38 | 39 | 37.4 | +1.6 | 45 | 55.1 | -10.1 | -6 | -17.6 | +11.6 | 44 | 41.7 | +2.3 |
| 16 | Venezia | 38 | 32 | 42.1 | -10.1 | 56 | 61.5 | -5.5 | -24 | -19.4 | -4.6 | 29 | 40.9 | -11.9 |
| 17 | Empoli | 38 | 33 | 35.7 | -2.7 | 59 | 52.9 | +6.1 | -26 | -17.2 | -8.8 | 31 | 40.6 | -9.6 |
| 18 | Hellas Verona | 38 | 34 | 37.3 | -3.3 | 66 | 54.4 | +11.6 | -32 | -17.1 | -14.9 | 37 | 40.3 | -3.3 |
| 19 | Lecce | 38 | 27 | 38.1 | -11.1 | 58 | 62.4 | -4.4 | -31 | -24.3 | -6.7 | 34 | 38.9 | -4.9 |
| 20 | Monza | 38 | 28 | 31.9 | -3.9 | 69 | 59.9 | +9.1 | -41 | -27.9 | -13.1 | 18 | 33.8 | -15.8 |